One Nation Surge: Policies, Polling & Australia’s Political Shift

Canberra – Support for Australia’s One Nation party is surging, challenging the established political order and raising questions about the future direction of Australian politics. Recent polling data reveals a dramatic shift in voter sentiment, with One Nation now polling ahead of the Liberal Party, traditionally one of the country’s major political forces.

The latest Newspoll, published on February 8, 2026, shows One Nation with a primary vote of 27 percent, a significant increase from 6.4 percent following the May 2025 election. This places the party ahead of the Coalition, which sits at 18 percent, and even closer to Labor’s 33 percent. The Liberal Party, on its own, has plummeted to a primary vote of just 15 percent, a historic low.

This dramatic shift is accompanied by a crisis of leadership within the Liberal Party. The Newspoll revealed a net satisfaction rating of -35 percent for Liberal leader Sussan Ley, the worst result for a major party leader in 23 years. This has fueled speculation about a potential leadership spill, with Angus Taylor’s supporters reportedly preparing to challenge Ley’s position.

The rise of One Nation is not limited to polling data. The party is actively testing its newfound momentum in the upcoming South Australian elections next month, where leader Pauline Hanson hopes to translate public support into electoral gains. ANU political scientist Jill Sheppard notes that voters are increasingly viewing One Nation as a legitimate political force, stating, “For voters who are telling pollsters that they would consider voting One Nation, One Nation is not a fringe party.”

One Nation’s appeal appears to stem from a combination of factors, most notably its focus on immigration reform. However, the party’s platform extends beyond this single issue. It also advocates for dismantling government responses to climate change – rejecting the scientific consensus on human-caused climate change – winding back access to abortion care, and abolishing the Therapeutic Goods Administration. These positions, while controversial, resonate with a segment of the electorate feeling disenfranchised by mainstream political parties.

The defection of high-profile figures, such as former Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce, to One Nation last year has further amplified the party’s visibility and credibility. Joyce’s move signaled a growing dissatisfaction within the National Party and provided One Nation with a significant boost in terms of political experience and name recognition.

However, analysts caution against interpreting One Nation’s current polling numbers as a guaranteed path to power. The Conversation notes that the party’s historical success has been largely confined to Queensland and upper houses of parliament, where it has benefited from Coalition preference flows. The article points out that One Nation’s limited presence in the lower house – where Australian prime ministers must emerge – presents a significant obstacle to achieving national leadership.

Historically, One Nation has found its strongest support base in Queensland, achieving 22.7 percent of the first preference vote in the 1998 state election. Currently, the party holds four Senate seats out of 76. The success of its senators in the 2025 election was, according to analysis, heavily reliant on preferences from the Coalition, suggesting that its gains are not solely attributable to a surge in independent support.

The current political landscape is characterized by a fractured Coalition and infighting, which analysts believe is contributing to the loss of voter support. The Nightly reports that the split between the Liberals and the Nationals during a nearly three-week period saw Ley’s net satisfaction rating plummet, further exacerbating the party’s woes.

While One Nation’s surge in popularity presents a short-term threat to the Coalition, the party faces significant challenges in translating its polling numbers into sustained electoral success. The need for Hanson to reshape her party’s reputation before the next federal election is paramount. The party’s broader policy platform, beyond immigration, remains largely undefined in the public consciousness, and its ability to appeal to a wider range of voters will be crucial to its long-term viability.

The Australian reports that One Nation is not seen as a viable second option for voters, suggesting a limit to its potential growth. This indicates that while voters may be expressing dissatisfaction with the major parties, they are not necessarily fully embracing One Nation as an alternative.

The implications of One Nation’s rise extend beyond domestic politics. The party’s skepticism towards climate change and its calls for protectionist trade policies could have ramifications for Australia’s international commitments and economic relationships. The party’s stance on immigration also raises questions about Australia’s multicultural identity and its role in addressing global migration challenges.

As Australia heads towards the South Australian elections and the prospect of a federal election in the coming years, the trajectory of One Nation will be closely watched. The party’s success or failure will not only shape the future of Australian politics but also offer insights into the broader global trend of populist movements and the growing dissatisfaction with traditional political establishments.