[국제]”The level immediately after the global financial crisis next year”…Ukrainian war and Chinese variables

[앵커]

The global economy next year is expected to show a sluggish performance at the same level as in 2009 right after the financial crisis.

The biggest variable is when the war in Ukraine ends, and China’s corona quarantine policy is also expected to have a significant impact.

Reporter Han Young-kyu reports.

[기자]

The International Finance Association predicted that the world economy would grow by 1.2% next year as the Russia-Ukraine war shows a long-term trend.

It was expected to be sluggish at the level of 2009, immediately after the global financial crisis.

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) predicted a growth rate of 2.2%, 1 percentage point higher than this.

[마티아스 코만 / OECD 사무총장 : 세계 경제 성장률이 올해 3.1%에서 내년에는 2.2%로 둔화될 것으로 예상합니다. 이는 전쟁이 시작되기 전에 예측된 비율보다 훨씬 낮은 성장입니다.]

Europe, which has been directly affected by rising energy prices, is expected to perform most sluggishly.

It is mentioned that the relatively better economy of the United States could also show negative growth during the first half of next year following a rapid financial tightening.

At the moment, the most important variable that can restore the world economy is the end of the war in Ukraine.

[마티아스 코만 / OECD 사무총장 : 전쟁의 종식과 우크라이나의 정의로운 평화가 세계 경제 전망을 개선하는 가장 영향력 있는 방법이 될 것이라는 점을 거듭 강조하고자 합니다.]

The biggest driver of the global economy next year will probably be the Chinese economy.

It is noted that if China moves away from its strict zero-corona policy next year and finds an exit strategy, it will be able to compensate for the economic contraction in other regions such as Europe.

However, if the current strict zero-corona policy continues next year, China’s economic growth rate is expected to decrease by about 1 percentage point and the difficulties of the world economy will increase.

This is Han Young-gyu’s YTN.

YTN Youngkyu Han ([email protected])

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