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[뉴욕증시 주간전망] Pay attention to the persistence of Omicron fear … Interest in improving employment indicators

This week (29-3), the New York stock market is expected to be greatly affected by the spread of the new Corona 19 mutant Omicron. Last weekend, the New York Stock Exchange was shocked by the appearance of a new mutation. This is because the World Health Organization (WHO) has designated the new mutation as a ‘variant of concern’. Concerns that the recovery could take a hit caused most stocks, including recovery stocks, to decline.

Above all, the market atmosphere worsened as warnings continued that the economic lockdown, which had hit the economy the most during the COVID-19 era, could be resumed. As yet, the exact cause of micron mutation has not been elucidated. Vaccine manufacturers such as Pfizer and Biontech have begun analyzing new mutations. However, in an interview with the British newspaper The Telegraph on the 27th (local time), Dr. Angelique Kuche of South Africa, who was the first to inform the health authorities about Omicron, said that the symptoms of those infected with the new mutation were “mild, although unusual.” said. It was different from previous COVID-19 symptoms, and it was very mild. However, he noted that the new mutation could be dangerous for older people with underlying medical conditions.

However, until there is clear evidence to stabilize the market, market volatility is expected to increase, experts predicted.

The question is how long the omicron fear lasts. Israel has already closed its borders for two weeks. Europe also blocked entry from countries such as South Africa. The United States has announced travel restrictions on eight countries in South Africa where the new mutation has occurred. If these restrictions are prolonged, the economic recovery is likely to suffer. As uncertainty increased, the market’s funds shifted to safe-haven assets. U.S. Treasury yields fell, and gold prices rose in international financial markets. However, the dollar, which had been rising on expectations of a rate hike, did not continue its upward trend.

The employment report, released this week, is also expected to get a lot of attention from the market. This is because employment in November, ahead of the Federal Reserve’s December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, is one of the biggest factors influencing the pace of central bank austerity policies.

Experts expect that the employment indicators to be released this time will also show a good picture. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), citing a survey of economists, predicted that nonfarm payroll employment would increase by 581,000 in November, continuing the increase in October. The unemployment rate is also expected to fall further to 4.5% from 4.6% in the previous month.

If employment remains strong, the Fed is more likely to raise interest rates sooner. The only reason the Fed did not raise the key rate despite inflation was because of sluggish employment. However, if the job index improves while inflation is rising sharply, there will be no reason for the Fed not to raise the key interest rate.

However, as the spread of Omicron and market instability have emerged as other variables, uncertainty is still high. If preemptive austerity measures are taken and the COVID-19 pandemic worsens rapidly, the economy could be severely affected.

On the 30th and 1st of this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will testify before Congress. What kind of position he will take in this remark is likely to affect the direction of the market. Other Fed members, including New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida, will also speak this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 fell 1.97% and 2.20%, respectively, over the past week. The Nasdaq fell 3.52%.

[사진=AFP·연합뉴스]


◇ Key Indicators and Speech Schedule

-29 days

October Provisional home sales

Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index for November

New York Fed President John Williams and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s Opening Speech at the New York Fed Event

Fed Director Michel Bowman Speech

-30 days

September Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Home Price Index

September S&P / Case-Shiller Home Price Index

November Chicago PMI

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell testify in the Senate

November Consumer Confidence Index

New York Fed President John Williams Attends New York Fed Event

Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester Speech

-1 day

Mortgage Banking Association (MBA) weekly mortgage applications

November ADP Employment Report

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell testify in the House of Representatives

November Markit Manufacturing PMI

November Supply Management Association (ISM) Manufacturing PMI

October Construction Expenditure

Fed Beige Book

November car sales

New York Fed President John Williams Speech

-2 days

November Challenger Reduction Report

Number of weekly new unemployment insurance claimants

Fed Vice Chairman Randall Quals Speech

Atlanta Fed President Rafael Bostic Speech

Speech by Mary Daley, President of the San Francisco Fed and Thomas Barkin, Richmond, Fed President

-3 days

New employment and unemployment rate in the non-agricultural sector in November

November Markit Services PMI

November ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

October Factory re-order


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