[분석] “North Korean reconnaissance satellite, Hwasong-15 type liquid engine derivative”… “Possibility of relaunch soon”

politics |

[서울=뉴스핌] Kim Jong-won, defense security reporter = Looking at the pictures of the launch of the ‘Military Reconnaissance Satellite Unit 1’ released by North Korea on the 1st, it was analyzed that the first stage of the missile that was fired this time used a Hwasong -15 type liquid fuel engine.

The Hwasong-15, a 13,000 km-class intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of hitting the US mainland, is 80 tf by clustering two sets of engines with a thrust of 40 tf (tons of force). The new ICBM Hwaseong-17 with a range of 15,000 km is 160 tf clustered with two sets of Baekdusan twin engines with 80 tf thrust.

Kwon Yong-soo, a former professor at the National Defense University and an authority on weapons systems, said, “If you look at the pictures alone, the first stage engine of the satellite launcher appears to be derived from a Hwasong-15 type liquid. engine , given that it has two nozzles.”

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On the 1st, North Korea’s state-run Korean Central News Agency announced the location of the launch of Military Reconnaissance Satellite No. [사진=조선중앙통신]

◆”Simple launcher method like launching Hwaseong ICBM series”

In particular, it was analyzed that North Korea launched a reconnaissance satellite this time from a new launch pad, not from the existing launch pad. Attention is focused on North Korea’s intention to launch ‘Military Reconnaissance Satellite Unit 1’ from a new launch pad which is likely to fail.

The new launch site was built 3 to 4 kilometers from the existing Seohae Satellite Launch Site in Dongchang-ri to the West Sea. No gantry tower (launcher) was built, and the projectile was placed on a thick square concrete pad and fired. It was noted that the projectile assembly building was designed to move on the rails to the launch installation placed on the concrete pad.

Professor Kwon Jeon analyzed, “Unlike the long-range rocket launch using the existing launch pad at the Seohae Satellite Launch Center in Dongchang-ri, North Pyongan Province, it seems to have chosen a new method in the form of a pad a simple launch, such as the launch of the Hwasong ICBM series.”

As a result, it is expected that North Korea will launch a relaunch with a high possibility of success using the current launcher in the near future.

After the failed launch, North Korean authorities announced that “the second launch will be conducted as soon as possible after various partial tests.”

The Vice Minister of the Workers’ Party of North Korea, Kim Yeo-jeong, announced again in a statement after the first launch failure on the 1st that “military reconnaissance satellites will soon correctly enter space orbit and begin to carry out missions .”

The National Intelligence Service predicted in a work report of the Intelligence Committee of the National Assembly, “It seems that it will take more than several weeks to complement the engine abnormality inspection, but if the defect is small, it cannot be rule out the possibility of an early launch.”

It is very likely that North Korea will try to launch the satellite again before 00:00 on June 11, which was initially announced as the launch period of the reconnaissance satellite.

However, given the political burden of a re-failure, the timing of the re-launch is expected to vary depending on the technical content and level of ‘multiple partial tests’.

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On the 1st, North Korea’s state-run Korean Central News Agency announced the location of the launch of Military Reconnaissance Satellite No. [사진=조선중앙통신]

◆ “Given that the launch failure will be disclosed to Korea and the United States, it will be admitted to failure early.”

In April 2012, 11 years ago, North Korea launched a long-range rocket called “Eunha-3” with an artificial satellite “Kwangmyongsong-3”, but it failed. Eight months later, in December, he managed to relaunch ‘Gwangmyeongseong No. 3 Units 2’.

Estimated from pictures released by North Korea, the ‘Cholima Type 1’ projectile was made in three stages and the maximum length was estimated to be around 29m. It was analyzed that the length of the first stage driver was short and that the second and third stages were longer. The diameter of the fairing (satellite shroud) on top of the space launch vehicle was also thicker than the 2nd and 3rd fuselages.

Experts estimated the detailed specifications as ▲1 cam drive 8m, diameter 2.4m ▲2 cam drive 7.2m, diameter 1.8m ▲3 cam drive 4.5m, diameter 1.8m ▲ matching 5.3m, diameter 3.1m.

On the 1st, North Korea released photos of the launch of its first military reconnaissance satellite. North Korea launched a reconnaissance satellite on the first day of the advance notification period for the launch at 6:29 am on May 31, the previous day.

However, it was analyzed that the North Korean reconnaissance satellite fell into the West Sea after losing thrust due to instability in fuel characteristics during the ignition of the second stage engine after separation of the first stage propellant.

North Korea also made an announcement acknowledging the failure of the launch on the same day, an extremely early time of about two and a half hours after launching a reconnaissance satellite. The launch scene was released on the 1st, the day after the launch.

Regarding this, the Ministry of National Defense reported on current affairs with Defense Minister Lee Jong-seop present at the general meeting of the National Defense Committee of the National Assembly that day, and said that North Korea “will carry out the task of developing strategic weapons and secure surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities before the 8th party plenary in early June in the main defense areas.” It was evaluated that this launch was carried out with the intention of promoting it as a result.”

In particular, the Ministry of National Defense said regarding North Korea’s acknowledgment and announcement of the launch failure at an unusually early time, “It is assumed that the launch failure was received early, considering that the launch failure will be disclosed as fact by analyzing information from South Korean and US intelligence authorities.” Analyzed.

The Ministry of National Defense explained that when North Korea failed to launch the artificial satellite ‘Kwangmyongsong-3’ in April 2012, it reported the fact that the launch failed in about five hours.


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