(Seoul = Yonhap Infomax) Reporter Yobin Noh = Foreign exchange dealers in the Seoul foreign exchange market predicted that the dollar won exchange rate would continue to move around 1,390 won on the 20th.
The dollar’s strength last night is expected to ease slightly as attention is focused on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which takes place from tonight. As the New York stock market rebounds, attention is focused on whether the risk appetite will continue in the Asian market.
During the day, the movement of the yuan could also affect the dollar earned. The yuan may increase volatility in the 7 yuan per dollar range, reflecting policy announcements from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC).
However, as the supply-demand situation with demand for payments that were below 1,390 won the previous day continues, intraday upside factors continue. The fact that the asking price is thin as it is mainly treated in real wages adds to the burden of upward pressure.
One of the concerns is whether the Ministry of Strategy and Finance will hold a meeting with import and export companies on the same day and present policy alternatives to mitigate the supply-demand imbalance.
Last night, in the New York Offshore Difference Forward Settlement (NDF) market, the price of the one-month dollar won contract was 1,389.00 won. Considering the recent one-month exchange point (-1.25 won), it is 3.35 won lower than the previous Seoul foreign exchange market spot price (1,393.60 won).
The expected range for the USD-KRW exchange rate was 1,383.00 to 1,395.00 won.
◇ Bank dealer
Ahead of this week’s FOMC, the dollar looks set to continue its ups and downs amid authorities’ watch. It seems that there are not many entities that can supply dollars in terms of supply and demand as the demand for payments from energy companies and other companies continues to rise even the day before. Although the renminbi may move above the 7/dollar level and influence sentiment, it will be important to check the top end and the Fed’s stance.
Expected range: 1,383.00 ~ 1,393.00 won
◇ B bank dealer
Last night, the dollar gained in the NDF market fell along with the rebound in the New York Stock Exchange. With the market reflecting the possibility of a 75bp Fed rate hike beforehand, the mood is likely to shift to real wages pending the event. The request is so strong that it is impossible to guarantee that it will settle in the 1,380 range won, but we should pay attention to the trading trends in the RMB and foreign stock markets.
Expected range: 1,384.00 ~ 1,394.00 won
◇ C Securities Dealer
The market today seems to continue the demand to trade at the bottom. With the New York stock market rebounding last night, expectations for a 100bp hike from the Fed have diminished. Prior to the FOMC event, it was traded mostly on real demand, but the level won by the dollar rose quickly because there were few offers in the market. Still, there is no factor in the highest-earning dollar, except for the will of the authorities.
Expected range: 1,383.00 ~ 1,395.00 won
This article was submitted at 08:54, two hours earlier on the Infomax financial information terminal.
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