For the first time since the oil shock of 1973, it has been outside the control of the US Federal Reserve.
Economic recovery expected in 2H amid concerns over stagflation
“Companies that keep pace with the advancement of technology trends will survive”
“The fear of being faced for the first time outside the economic control of the US Federal Reserve is great.”
Hwang Bo-won-kyung, sales director of Meritz Securities’ Sales Department Financial Center, said in an interview with Daily An at the Yeouido office building in Seoul on the 27th of last month, diagnosing that the market is in extreme anxiety because it is the first experience of stagflation since the 1973 oil shock.
He explains that even team leaders who joined securities firms in the late 1990s and early 2000s have only seen the market completely under the control of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Director Hwang Bo is an industry veteran who has served as a private banker (PB) for the past 16 years at NH Investment & Securities and Meritz Securities.
Director Hwang Bo said, “It is the first time since the 1980s and 1990s that the US consumer price index (CPI) exceeds 8%. said
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the CPI rose 8.6% in May, the first time in 41 years. This is much higher than the 5.52% result of the April survey. Recently, US economists forecast that the US CPI will increase by 6.97% annually by the end of the year.
완만한 U자형 반등…하반기 경기회복 '변곡점' 기대
The scene of people riding horses instead of cars during the first oil shock in 1973. ⓒGetty Images BankDirector Hwang Bo predicted that although the New York Stock Exchange and KOSPI are currently attempting a technical rebound, it will take some time before they lead to a trend upward. Although the KOSPI fell 13.15% last month, it also rebounded for three consecutive trading days towards the end of the month.
He said, “I joined as a PB at the end of 2006 and have undergone about seven major and minor adjustments so far. Except for the V-shaped recovery that occurred due to political issues like the early days of Corona 19, most showed a gentle U-shaped rebound,” he said. The stock market will gradually recover after a period of five to six months,” he said.
However, it is unlikely that the economic downturn will last for more than two years, as it did during the oil shock. He did not rule out the possibility that the stock market would rebound in the second half of this year as early as possible.
Director Hwang Bo said, “At the time of the oil shock, the FOMC chairman raised the interest rate to 20%. Diagnosed.
He added, “If we look at the situation negatively until mid-next year, the global economy could collapse rapidly.
긴호흡 ‘하이테크 기업’ 투자 조언
Director Hwang Bo said that it is not easy to predict how the market will go in the future as the market is placed in a completely different environment. Accordingly, he emphasized that it is time to seek an investment strategy from a new perspective.
First of all, he predicted that sectors that received a forward correction would have an advantage if they were looking for investment returns from a short-term perspective.
Director Hwang Bo explained, “There are many cases of outperforming in the bio/entertainment sector that is free from economic sensitivity.
He emphasized that it is desirable to invest from a long-term perspective as market uncertainty is high. He also advised that, from a long-term perspective, it is necessary to pay attention to high-tech companies in consumer economic goods.
Director Hwang Bo said, “Companies that are investing heavily in secondary batteries, semiconductors and robots are highly likely to see the light after the adjustment is over.先) The companies they invested in will survive this time,” he predicted.
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