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[김용식의 주간증시전망] US Fed weighs on 50bp rate hike

The KOSPI closed at 2595.87 points, down 63.12 points (2.37%) from the previous week.

By supply and demand, foreigners and institutions net sold 2.365 trillion won and 722.5 billion won, respectively, and individuals alone bought 2.9815 trillion won.

The bad news of the KOSPI, which was trying to rebound last week, is interpreted as a red flag for global growth due to rising oil prices and disruptions in the supply chain.

In response to the prospect of prolonged inflation, the World Bank on the 7th lowered its annual global growth rate forecast for this year by 1.2 percentage points from 4.1% in January to 2.9%. down by percentage points.

In addition, the price of raw materials is soaring, with the average West Texas oil price exceeding $100 per barrel in the second quarter of 2022.

The domestic economy is also being hit by prolonged inflation and disruptions in the supply chain.

The domestic current account turned into a deficit for the first time in 24 months, with a deficit of 80 million dollars in April.

Investor sentiment is expected to freeze further as fears of austerity from Europe are added.

The ECB held a monetary policy meeting on the 9th and announced at a board meeting in July that it would raise the benchmark interest rate for the first time in 11 years and then raise it further in September.

Despite the pouring of bad news, expectations for China’s economic stimulus and the resolution of the Fed’s monetary policy uncertainty are interpreted as positive for the domestic stock market.

China’s recent economic indicators are not bad.

The manufacturing purchasing managers’ economic index for May 2022, released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on May 31, was 49.6, up 2.2 points from the previous month. The non-manufacturing economic activity index in May also rose 5.9 points from the previous month to 47.8. Export and import indicators are also improving.

The US Fed’s monetary policy uncertainty is expected to dissipate at the FOMC meeting scheduled for the 15th, and the focus is on a 50bp rate hike.

The new government’s tax reform is also highly likely to act as an upward momentum for the domestic stock market.

The government is known to implement tax reform in the direction of lowering the top corporate tax rate from the current 25% to 22% and simplifying the tax base section.

It seems desirable to focus on re-opening and semiconductor-related stocks, which are expected to benefit from the market in the short term.

The KOSPI closed at 2595.87 points, down 63.12 points (2.37%) from the previous week.

By supply and demand, foreigners and institutions net sold 2.365 trillion won and 722.5 billion won, respectively, and individuals alone bought 2.9815 trillion won.

The bad news of the KOSPI, which was trying to rebound last week, is interpreted as a red flag for global growth due to rising oil prices and disruptions in the supply chain.

In response to the prospect of prolonged inflation, the World Bank on the 7th lowered its annual global growth rate forecast for this year by 1.2 percentage points from 4.1% in January to 2.9%. down by percentage points.

In addition, the price of raw materials is soaring, with the average West Texas oil price exceeding $100 per barrel in the second quarter of 2022.

The domestic economy is also being hit by prolonged inflation and disruptions in the supply chain.

The domestic current account turned into a deficit for the first time in 24 months, with a deficit of 80 million dollars in April.

Investor sentiment is expected to freeze further as fears of austerity from Europe are added.

The ECB held a monetary policy meeting on the 9th and announced at a board meeting in July that it would raise the benchmark interest rate for the first time in 11 years and then raise it further in September.

Despite the pouring of bad news, expectations for China’s economic stimulus and the resolution of the Fed’s monetary policy uncertainty are interpreted as positive for the domestic stock market.

China’s recent economic indicators are not bad.

The manufacturing purchasing managers’ economic index for May 2022, released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on May 31, was 49.6, up 2.2 points from the previous month. The non-manufacturing economic activity index in May also rose 5.9 points from the previous month to 47.8. Export and import indicators are also improving.

The US Fed’s monetary policy uncertainty is expected to dissipate at the FOMC meeting scheduled for the 15th, and the focus is on a 50bp rate hike.

The new government’s tax reform is also highly likely to act as an upward momentum for the domestic stock market.

The government is known to implement tax reform in the direction of lowering the top corporate tax rate from the current 25% to 22% and simplifying the tax base section.

It seems desirable to focus on re-opening and semiconductor-related stocks, which are expected to benefit from the market in the short term.



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