[신선한 경제] 2023 The First Monetary Policy Committee, the last interest rate rise? What about the real estate market?

◀ Anchor ▶

It’s time to tell you the current economic news in detail.

Reporter Noh Kyung-jin from the economic team will be with you.

What are you talking about today?

◀ Reporter ▶

We publish this week’s notable economic timetable every Monday.

This Friday is the first meeting of the Bank of Korea’s Monetary Policy Committee this year.

◀ Anchor ▶

Decide whether or not to raise the base rate?

◀ Reporter ▶

That’s okay. Attention is focused on whether the key interest rate, which has risen significantly since the summer of last year, will stop rising after this MPC peak.

Our interest rate is currently 3.25%.

Immediately after the Monetary Policy Committee meeting in November last year, Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong said that many members of the Monetary Policy Committee believed that the final rate was the highest, at 3.5%.

If so, if you raise 0.25% this time to 3.5%, this may be the last rate increase.

Of course, as the economic downturn worsens and the decline in real estate prices is steep, some members of the Monetary Policy Committee may express a freeze view.

The general market outlook is that it is difficult to avoid an increase this time around as inflation continues.

In addition, some experts have raised the possibility that it will rise to 3.75% by raising it once again after it was posted in January.

I cited inflation and the difference between the US interest rate, which is higher than ours, as the reason.

◀ Anchor ▶

Because we are now 3.25, and the US publishes it as a range, it is 4.25 to 4.5? There is a difference.

This year, the United States will continue to upload, right?

◀ Reporter ▶

Yes, the US is also ahead of its first regular FOMC meeting at the end of January.

The whole world is focused on how much to raise again this year.

At the end of last year, the US Fed FOMC revealed a stronger than expected tightening stance and gave the possibility of interest rates in excess of 5%.

Markets that had anticipated easing were very upset at the time.

The latest indicator of how much the Fed will raise is the December jobs report released later this week.

Employment is strong as the number of jobs has increased more than expected and the unemployment rate has fallen further.

So, the results showed that the US economy is fine, and the interest rate hike trend seems to be gaining momentum.

However, the market focused more on the slowdown in wage growth.

Rising wages mean a thicker wallet and more spending power. In other words, it is a factor that will increase the price, you can see it like this.

However, as the pace of wage growth has slowed, inflationary pressures are slightly lower and the interest rate rise trend appears to be easing.

Reflecting this, the New York stock market rose higher on Friday for the first time in the new year.

However, Fed directors, who hold the key to interest rate policy, still expressed their cautious stance.

“Inflation is so high that the benchmark interest rate should be kept above 5% for a while,” said Rafiel Bostik, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, in an interview with CNBC after the employment data came out.

◀ Anchor ▶

Then it will be difficult for us to fall in a short period of time.

Let’s talk real estate.

As the government continues to relax regulations, how is the market responding?

◀ Reporter ▶

We told you that the direction of the pre-sale market this year depends on how many contracts actually expire this month when informing you about the poor subscription results of the Dunchunjugong reconstruction complex, that is, the Foreon Olympic Park.

The regulations that have been eased this time, the resale restriction period is significantly reduced, the actual residence obligation is removed, and intermediate payment loans are easier, and all one of which is very beneficial to the winners of this subscription.

There was even a saying, ‘Saving Private Dunchun Jugong’.

In fact, the contract movement, which had been stagnant, is said to have become more active in the field.

In addition, there is news that the price of apartments in Seoul, which continued to fall, has fallen slightly after the policy announcement, and that emergency sales in the Gangnam area have also been reaped.

Coincidentally, Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Won Hee-ryong went to attend CES in Las Vegas, USA, and met with reporters.

Minister Won said, “It’s letting the market breathe, not that I’m a butler in debt.”

He also said that the financial market and the real economy needed to be prevented from collapsing because the real estate market was going wrong.

At the same time, it was revealed that the ability to repay the individual’s debt, that is, the ratio of principal and repayment interest to income, and DSR regulations would be maintained.

However, last December, BOK Governor Lee Chang-yong said that our domestic debt problem was serious and that we needed to ‘deleverage’, or reduce.

Our household debt problem is closely related to housing finance, which originates from Korea’s unique charter and pre-sale system.

It seems that a careful approach and control is needed so that the rapid relaxation of the real estate policy does not become another factor of economic uncertainty in the long term.

◀ Anchor ▶

Yes, reporter Noh Kyung-jin, I heard you well.

MBC News awaits your report 24 hours a day.

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