Pro-Russian rebel self-propelled artillery in Luhansk Oblast, Donbass Region▶ Click here for a larger view
The New York Times (NYT) reported on the 30th (local time) that Russia, which had invaded Ukraine, decided to focus its efforts on the eastern Donbas (Donetsk and Luhansk provinces) areas controlled by separatist rebels. .
Recently, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that it would focus on attacking Donbas by reorganizing the Russian forces deployed in the north, including the capital Kiiu (Kyiv), to complete the Donbas ‘liberation operation’ in the second month of the Ukraine war.
The New York Times analyzed that there is no risk of supply lines being exposed to Ukrainian forces because the Donbas region is directly connected to Russia and the Russian military has made progress in the war in several places.
The Russian military has shown major logistical problems, such as cutting off supply lines in the area near Kiiu.
Russia’s pinpoint attack on both sides of Donbas and the South could provide an opportunity to launch a concentrated attack on the Ukrainian forces concentrated in the Donbas region.
According to the New York Times, Ukraine is estimated to have deployed more than a third of its forces in Donbas to fight pro-Russian separatist rebels and Russian forces.
If the Russian army acquires the Donbas region, it will be possible to build a land route linking the already forcibly annexed Crimea in southern Ukraine, Donbas, and Russia.
It is for this reason that Russia was so intent on occupying Mariupol, a strategically important point between the Crimean Peninsula and the Donbass region, after the outbreak of the war.
However, there are differing opinions as to whether Russia can maintain this status even if it occupies the southeastern region from Crimea to Mariupol to Donbas.
Some experts argue that it is impossible, citing the fierce resistance of the Ukrainian army and people after the outbreak of the war, but there are also arguments that it is possible because Russia has an advantage in terms of troops and materials as the war drags on.
In addition, eastern Ukraine, such as Donbas, is said to be rich in resources such as coal and rare minerals.
There are also concerns that Ukraine could become a divided country if Ukraine enters into a ceasefire while handing over the region from Crimea to Donbas to Russian forces under pressure from the West to stop the war.
If Donbas is taken over by Russia, much of central Ukraine could be vulnerable to future Russian attacks.
Russian soldier passing in front of a military vehicle▶ Click here for a larger view
Frederick Kagan, a military expert at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), said:
Ukraine has made clear its will to defend the Donbass area.
In a video address to the nation on the 30th, President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that the Russian army is preparing for additional battles in the eastern region, “We will not give up anything. We will fight for even one meter of our territory.”
In 2014, when Russia forcibly annexed Crimea in southern Ukraine, pro-Russian separatists in the Donbas region also occupied the eastern industrial area and declared the establishment of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) respectively.
Donbas is divided into regions controlled by pro-Russian separatists and the Ukrainian government trying to suppress it, and fighting has continued for the past eight years.
The Donbas region occupies 9% of the total territory of Ukraine.
The exact population size is not known, but it is estimated that 2.3 million and 1.5 million people live in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast, respectively.
On the 21st of last month, Russia approved the independence of the DPR and the LPR, and three days later, on the 24th, under the pretext of a special military operation to prevent the genocide of the people of the region, they invaded Ukraine.
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