[이슈in] Putin secretly moved 100,000 troops at night… Ukrainian invasion imminent? – Cheonji Ilbo

[천지일보=이솜 기자] In recent weeks, Russia has deployed more than 100,000 soldiers to Ukraine’s borders. There are speculations that the Russian army could invade Ukraine early next year.

A Russian government spokesperson said Russia poses no threat to anyone, but military tensions between the two countries are greater than ever before as the United States provides its allies with detailed Russian invasion scenarios and the Ukrainian Defense Ministry discloses the expected route of the invasion.

Fearing an attack, the Ukrainian government turned to Europe and the United States for help. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU and the US fully support Ukraine’s territorial integrity and are discussing retaliatory measures to impose sanctions if Russia crosses the border. US Secretary of State Tony Blincoln warned that a Russian invasion would be a ‘serious mistake’ and is said to have sent more than 80 tons of ammunition to Ukraine to aid Ukraine.

What is Putin’s ‘real intention’?

According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on the 22nd (local time), European countries are aware of the seriousness of Russia’s military buildup, but Western intelligence analysts say they are not sure of Putin’s “real intentions”. What is Russian President Vladimir Putin thinking?

The Times analyzed that Putin is raising his odds to boost his approval ratings. According to a poll released in October by the Levada Center in Moscow, the approval rating for Putin in running the government fell to 53%, the lowest level since 2012. History has shown the rise in approval ratings as Russia fights Ukraine, and in recent years Putin has fully embraced the Cold War reminiscent of anti-Western words and deeds to boost his stagnant approval ratings.

However, this too is only an observation. Michael Kaufman, director of research for CNA’s Russian Research Programme, said in a recent podcast that “a lot of[Russian]troops were moved at night to keep them from being detected,” adding that “it’s even more worrisome because it raises questions about their intentions.”

The Russian government is of the view that the current military action is justified, but is not actually planning it. The explanation is that it is only a response to the recent provocation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) conducting military exercises without notice in the Black Sea. Putin asks why Russia should ignore the hostile presence of American and European warships and fighters. Russian President Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for Russian President Dmitry Peskov, appeared on state television on the 21st and criticized, “It is neither logical nor polite.” did.

◆“There is a very realistic possibility of an invasion of Russia”

So, will Russia actually invade Ukraine?

The WSJ said, citing a diplomat, that DNI Director Abley Haynes was briefing European allies in Brussels on a potential Russian invasion scenario in Brussels on the 17th, saying that “the deployment of the armed forces is unprecedented.” . Haines reiterated Blincoln’s remarks that Russia’s military action appears to be an option, but there’s no certainty as to whether or not it will take action, the diplomat added.

Jeffrey Edmonds, a former CIA military analyst and Russia expert at CNA, told Business Insider that “the way this is being done, how deliberately it is being done, the size of the troops, the length of the presence, and what the Russians are saying,” he told Business Insider. Considering this, the situation is actually very serious.” “Tactical groups not located near Ukraine are stationed in areas outside of the training cycle,” he said. “It’s not that a decision has been made yet, but once a decision is made, it will happen quickly,” Edmunds said.

In a podcast last week, Kaufman warned that “there are no signs that a Russian invasion of Ukraine is imminent,” but that the fact would not be comforting. “I don’t think there will be any Russian operations in the next few days or weeks,” he added.

Jim Townsend, a former senior Pentagon and NATO official and CNAS security expert, described Putin as an “opportunist” and “gambler” to Insider. “If Putin has intentions, he has real capabilities,” he said.

Townsend sees military action against Ukraine as “a very realistic possibility” given the increase in the Ukrainian border, Russia’s presence in the Black Sea, and other aggressive and coercive actions. In this situation, the United States is considering sending military advisors and new military equipment to Ukraine, but it is known that it is carefully considering it to prevent Russia’s response.

The Ukrainian government is already in a state of emergency. Kirillo Budanov, director-general of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Agency, said earlier that Russia was preparing an attack to invade Ukraine in late January or early February next year. did.

Time magazine, on the other hand, judged that Ukraine would not be able to defeat Russia on the ground and NATO would not be directly involved in the battle, but an actual invasion was unlikely because Putin’s popularity was not as popular as it used to be, which could cost Russia too much. In a Levada poll, Russians tended to blame the West for Ukraine’s affairs, but they said a “all-out war” with Ukraine would not be good for Putin’s position in the country.

“There are several scenarios on the Russian side,” a senior Ukrainian official told the WSJ. “Russia is testing what is the best option for them.”

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