[인터뷰] Jin-Woo Kim, Director of Sermo International Research Center, “Russia-Ukraine War is not a good or evil… A nuclear war is imminent” – The Cheonji Ilbo

[천지일보=강수경 기자] With the prospect of a protracted Russia-Ukraine war, the world is also suffering from repercussions such as a surge in raw material prices, a shock in oil prices, and a rise in global grain prices. When will this war be put to an end?

When the war broke out in February, the world recognized Russia, which started the war, as a force of ‘evil’, and invaded Ukraine as ‘good’. However, at the time, there were people who were wary of these frames and shouted that they should take off their sunglasses and open a map to see the reality. He thoroughly rejected emotions and analyzed this war based on the phenomena shown by real indicators such as history, geography, and armed forces. As such, he did not unconditionally criticize Russia or defend Ukraine. Because of this, he received a lot of criticism from those around him.

He is a Korean-American nuclear expert and director of the Sermo International Institute, Kim Jin-woo, who served as a senior adviser to the US State Department. Why did he question the American-centered Western news that everyone took for granted? Awake! We met him recently and asked why.

First, I am concerned about the future of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). As the war progresses, NATO may either disappear or become stronger than it is today.

Second, as Russia develops deeper ties with China, it could even lead to a political and economic alliance. If India and Brazil also join as a base, the Bretton Woods system (BWS), which uses the US dollar created after World War II as the reserve currency, could collapse, that is, the liberal international order. In other words, the future of the dollar could weaken. For example, Saudi Arabia recently sold oil to China, which was received in Chinese Yuan.

Third, it should be noted that the drone war has begun in this war. U.S. Switchblade and Turkish drones are now showing a big role in the Russian-Ukrainian war.

Fourth, the power of social media to create awareness of people. Real information and fake information are certainly becoming tools of war. For example, I recently played a war game at Sogang University and felt the speed of information was terrifying. It was almost out of control. Even Ukrainian President Zelensky is considered a genius at manipulating and agitating public opinion. To put it bluntly, it’s Hitler’s level. For example, the Azov Battalion in Ukraine is pro-Nazi. Zelensky turned them into Ukrainian national heroes.

Finally, it is the first mention since 1945 of the use of nuclear weapons in this war. In other words, the possibility of nuclear war is imminent.

I think the reality of the battlefield is the most important. CNN, BBC, and NYT media coverage leans too far to one side. Ukraine is good, Putin is evil. Almost everyone is on the side of Ukraine. Of course, we should be criticized for being the first to invade Putin, but especially in this case, we need to analyze it more coldly and soberly.

President Zelensky says that Ukraine is all dead, how can he meet Hollywood celebrities and people like Lee Jun-seok in such a situation? Until the invasion of Ukraine, the world knew just how corrupt Ukraine was. Ukraine was the number one money laundering country. According to the Panama Papers, which exposed the reality of financial capital committed by tax havens in 35 countries, President Zelensky also has billions of condos in Miami.

Who will love and support Putin? there will be no one However, to think that Ukraine is a liberal and democratic country is not an illusion, it is a delusion. Now President Zelensky has outlawed the opposition, shut down the press and crippled the Russian language. We need to think about whether it is right for the United States, the West, and other countries to help countries with these values.

President Zelensky acknowledged that Russia now controls one-fifth of Ukraine’s territory. But there was something he didn’t admit. That is, Russia controls Ukraine’s industrial centers (like Ulsan in Korea), 90% of its energy resources (including offshore oil), and important ports and shipping. If Odessaan was handed over to Russia, Ukraine would become inaccessible land to the Black Sea. It may take some time, but in the end Russia wins and Ukraine cannot win.

However, if there is a major shift in US strategy, this prediction could be wrong. But what is certain is that without the United States and the West, there would be no Ukraine or Zelensky. During the 11 weeks of the war, the United States spent $54 billion on Ukraine. The average ‘annual’ amount spent by the United States during the 20 years of the war in Afghanistan was $46 billion. Russia’s military budget for one year last year was $69 billion. Estimated U.S. spending on aid for next year’s war in Ukraine is $554 billion.

Perhaps the US is willing to spend the money if the goal is to bring Russia into bankruptcy with this policy. But this is skeptical. Because in the US, the Republicans are expected to sweep both the House and the Senate in the midterm elections in November.

If Ukraine becomes neutral, it will return to its pre-war situation. It is also what every country wants.

Currently, NATO is threatened indirectly through Ukraine, but if Russia takes control of Ukraine, NATO will be threatened directly by Russia. The buffer will disappear. The shock absorbers are mutually beneficial because they are in two directions, not one.

The Baltic States will purchase advanced military weapons on a large scale through the United States. If this happens, the economies of those countries will be severely affected. If Russia blocks the ‘Suvauki Corridor’, which refers to the 100km area between the Lithuanian-Polish border from pro-Russian Belarus to Kaliningrad, Lithuania will not be able to get help from NATO. This is the Achilles heel of NATO and Western countries.

But it all depends on the goals of each country’s participation in the war. Poland, for example, receives F-16 fighters from the United States in exchange for support of older MiGs to Ukraine. If the United States and the West want a blockade of Russia, the best strategy is to combine them with Ukraine and Poland to the west, Turkey and Azerbaijan to the south, and Kazakhstan to the east. This is true deterrence. In particular, Poland is in an important position as it has a very deep anti-Russian sentiment towards Russia. There are cultural reasons, but there are also historical events. An example is the Katyn Forest Massacre, a mass execution of Polish officers during World War II.

Furthermore, Romania and Poland have 24 SM-3 interceptors. The missile is launched via the Mark 41 vertical launch system. The SM-3 is essentially a defensive missile, not an offensive missile. However, Tomahawk missiles (TLAMs) and other offensive weapons can also be fired from the Mark41 vertical launch system. For this reason, President Putin has so strongly opposed the anti-missile defense (MD) regime in Eastern Europe. This is also why Putin has been opposed and fearful of NATO expansion for 20 years.

If the US goal is to change the regime in Russia, the world must be willing to risk World War III. Biden doesn’t have the guts to wage such a war.

Because it was assumed that Ukraine would lose this war. If Ukraine loses, China will have more guts. If that happens, China will have a direct influence on Taiwan.
On the other hand, if Ukraine and the West can lead to a stalemate, or if Ukraine compromises, I don’t think China would risk going to war with the US for Taiwan.
Many people talk about the ‘one China policy’, but the US laws and policies that follow, the Taiwanese law, are overlooked. The US will try to protect Taiwan in some way. The US Marine Corps will not or will not enter Taiwan territory directly. Even so, it seems difficult for the US to abandon Taiwan like Afghanistan. For reference, at Top Gun at Nellis Air Force Base in Nevada, for the first time, American F-35 pilots are training to fight China.
A more important issue is the ripple effect on Korea and Japan. The US cannot protect Taiwan, South Korea and Japan all at the same time. This means that South Korea and Japan should do more to defend themselves.

There is no way the US likes nuclear proliferation.

But at the same time, America today is not the America of the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s. They don’t have the financial power they used to. That means the US does not have the economic power to buy out the nuclear ambitions of its allies.

Now, there is a saying in the hallways of the American Pentagon muttering ‘It’s time for America to give up its this-or-that-approach’. This or that is that the United States offers its allies a nuclear umbrella in exchange for not possessing nuclear weapons. But now, in the US Pentagon, there are twenty-two opinions that ‘Allies possessing their own nuclear weapons are compatible’. The United Kingdom and France are also allies of the United States, but both possess their own nuclear weapons.

But this will require the trust of both the United States and its allies. The United States has a long-standing relationship of trust with its European allies. However, the level of trust in Japan and Korea is not at that level. Many South Koreans say that deterrence of nuclear expansion is in the interests of the United States. right. However, if South Korea starts a war unilaterally without consulting with the United States, the United States will be very dissatisfied with participating in a war that they do not want.

First, the US will not be willing to intervene in the Russo-Ukraine war if a nuclear war is possible. For example, Biden’s rejection of Ukraine’s no-fly zone could lead to a direct conflict between Russia and NATO, which could lead to a nuclear war with the US intervening. In that context, the weapons currently supported by the US against Ukraine are essentially defensive weapons. In fact, it is believed that the US lost its power of nuclear expansion deterrence through the Ukraine war.

Second, speed is much more important than quantity. If the enemy invades Korea quickly, the enemy can already take control of Korea before the US enters the war. The US Marine Corps’ retrenchment strategy must be put into action.

Third, the fact that South Korea and the United States share nuclear weapons does not guarantee immediate nuclear retaliation by the United States in the event of a war in Korea. European NATO member states that have nuclear weapons have close ties with the United States. Nevertheless, when a war actually begins, we have no choice but to watch what the US decides.

The most important lesson is that Korea has to appear strong and strong. Never look weak or weak. Soft power and compromise, dialogue, reconciliation… all good words Who would oppose such a good value? But K-pop cannot stop the enemy’s attack. Even the discussion of treaties and alliances itself cannot prevent a military attack. Only strong military forces can prevent such an attack. This is deterrence. The Republic of Korea should also be able to scare the enemy. Korean enemies should fear Korea.

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