My view is that we will be fighting (with China) in 2025
A B-1B Lancer bomber from Ellsworth Air Force Base, South Dakota, USA, approaches a KC-135 tanker from Kadena Air Base, Japan for aerial refueling over the Pacific on the 10th (time local). 2023.1.19 US Air Force
A warning by a senior US general that war with China could break out within two years has caused a stir. The US Department of Defense dismissed it as “personal opinion,” but critics poured out in China saying it was a reckless statement that reflected the hostility of the US military. As Taiwan becomes an issue again a week before US Secretary of State Tony Blincoln’s visit to China (February 5-6), there is a possibility that the conflict between the US and China will intensify.
According to the Washington Post (WP) on the 27th (local time), 4-star General Michael A. Minihan, who leads the US Air Mobility Command, distributed a memo to subordinate commanders, urging them to prepare’ n fast for a possible conflict between the United States and China He ordered to check the posture of the response, saying that there is a possibility that the United States will not catch Chinese President Xi Jinping’s desire for war.
“I hope I’m wrong,” said Commander Minihun, but predicted, “My gut feeling is that we’re going to fight in 2025.” The basis for this was the timing of the elections in the United States and Taiwan.
▲ Four-Star General Michael A. Minihan, who heads the US Air Mobility Command. United States Air Force
Commander Minihun said, “Chinese President Xi Jinping has secured a third term and established a war-related advisory committee in October last year.” o) will give the reason. President Xi’s team, reason and opportunity are all ready for 2025.”
In particular, Commander Minihun stressed, “We need an integrated unit that can win inside the first island chain (Kuril Islands-Japan-Taiwan-Philippines) established by China.” China is implementing the strategy ‘ anti-access and area denial (A2AD)’ so-called to prevent US military intervention, and the area set reflecting China’s core interests is inside the first island chain.
At the same time, he urged thousands of soldiers under his command to be fully prepared. Commander Minihun ordered commanders to report major plans for war with China and update emergency communications by the end of next month, saying, “We must hurry to prepare.” For pilots who can carry weapons during the next month, “Carry out live fire training on a target of 7m. (In shooting training) Aim for the head.”
Engineers from the US Air Force Special Operations Command’s 24th Special Tactics Wing train to escort an HH-60M Black Hawk belonging to the Alaska National Guard (ANG) at Elmendorf-Richardson Base, Alaska. 2023.1.23 US Air Force
Engineers from the US Air Force Special Operations Command’s 24th Special Tactics Wing train to escort an HH-60M Black Hawk belonging to the Alaska National Guard (ANG) at Elmendorf-Richardson Base, Alaska. 2023.1.23 US Air Force
Meanwhile, there have been rumors of an attack on Taiwan in 2025, such as Commander Minihun’s claim. In October 2021, Taiwan’s Defense Minister Chu Kuo-jeong said, “By 2025, China will have the strength to invade Taiwan on a full scale with lower costs.” He made efforts to expand military cooperation to include China. The US held a defense minister meeting with Japan on the 12th and also announced plans to forward mobile forces to Japan to strengthen military posture in the Indo-Pacific.
The Joe Biden administration also announced that China is the biggest threat to US national security, saying that China has rapidly expanded its military power and made aggressive moves in recent years.
However, the fact that a US 4-star general on active duty commands emphasizing specific countermeasures carries a different weight. Commander Minihun served as deputy commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command for two years from September 2019. He is a shining figure in the trend of the People’s Liberation Army of China. The US Air Mobility Command, which he leads, is effectively responsible for supplying and transporting US troops on the battlefield.
▲ The Vermont National Guard of the United States Air Force (ANG) 158th Fighter Wing F-35A Lightning II takes off from the Vermont National Guard Base in South Burlington for a training mission on January 6, 2022 (local time). 2023.1.20 US Air National Guard
▲ The Vermont National Guard of the United States Air Force (ANG) 158th Fighter Wing F-35A Lightning II takes off from the Vermont National Guard Base in South Burlington for a training mission on January 6, 2022 (local time). 2023.1.20 US Air National Guard
Since then, there has been a backlash in China, saying it “reflects the deep hostility of the US military.” A famous military blogger said, “It’s nonsense to aim for the head rather than the torso in real combat.”
On the 29th, the Global Times, an affiliate of the People’s Daily, the official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party, strongly criticized the comment, saying it was a comment that exacerbated strategic mistrust between the US and China and more of tension by citing experts. of the country.
“It is quite provocative and reckless for a senior US general to make such confrontational comments at a time when relations between China and the US are sluggish,” said Shin Chang, deputy director of the Institute of American Studies at Fudan University. in China. hurt,” he said. “Senior American political leaders know that such careless comments will do great damage to China-US relations,” he added.
Before US Secretary of State Tony Blincoln’s visit to China next month, it was argued that the intention was to benefit more from the negotiations.
▲ On the 20th (local time), the US Secretary of State, Tony Blincoln, gives a speech at the Ukraine Cultural Center in Chicago, Illinois. 2023.1.26 AFP Yonhap News
Chinese military expert Song Zhongping said, “US military generals are exaggerating China’s military power, trying to get their troops to spend more on defense.” ” he said.
After Commander Minihun distributed the memo, the US Department of Defense began to evolve. While acknowledging the existence of the memo from Commander Minihun, the Pentagon drew a line as ‘personal opinion’.
In a statement on the 27th, Pentagon spokesman Patrick Ryder said, “China is a challenge for the Pentagon to pursue,” and “US officials are working with allies and partners to preserve a peaceful Indo-Pacific region , free and open.”
A Pentagon official, who asked not to be named, said General Minihan’s comments “do not represent the Pentagon’s views on China.”
In the midst of this, Secretary of State Blincoln is visiting China on the 5th and 6th of next month and will have his first face-to-face meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang. On April 10th, in line with the 44th anniversary of the US Taiwan Relations Act, there are rumors that the new US House Speaker, Kevin McCarthy, will visit Taiwan. An analysis is that if Chairman McCarthy, who is considered a hardliner against China, actually visits Taiwan, there will be a stronger backlash in China than when Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August last year. That is why there are comments that the conflict between the United States and China against Taiwan will intensify.
Reporter Kwon Yoon-hee
