Wall Street analysis suggests that Russia is likely to invade Ukraine. If only eastern Ukraine is annexed like the Crimea in 2014, it is predicted that the West will tolerate it.
On the 18th (local time), Peter Tsir, a strategist at Academy Securities, said that negotiations between Russia and the West have not yielded results and analyzed that Russia is highly likely to invade Ukraine. More than 100,000 Russian troops have already gathered at the Ukrainian border. The White House predicted last week that Russia could begin an invasion by mid-May or mid-May.
Peter Chir, a strategist at Academy Securities, cited six reasons for Russia to invade.
First, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin needs a “victory” to strengthen his political position at home, and wins in negotiations is good, but getting his land back is better.
Second, Putin pointed out that he believes NATO has crossed the red line by deploying troops and missiles near the Russian border.
Third, Putin demanded a ban on Ukraine’s accession to NATO in negotiations with the West, which he analyzed was not likely to come true.
Fourth, the European energy crisis is giving Russia more leverage. As wind power decreased due to the cold weather this winter, Europe’s dependence on Russian natural gas increased. The strategist Cir sees these factors as favorable conditions that won’t exist next year. If you want to invade, now is an advantage.
Fifth, President Putin also used high oil prices to prepare a reserve of $620 billion, so he did not see a high possibility of backing down from the threat of economic sanctions from the West.
Sixth, it pointed out that Russia is acting in accordance with a larger and more elaborate plan to not only push Western influence out of Ukraine, but to put the former Soviet states back under Russian influence.
“The possibility of a deal is still alive, but far less optimistic than Western politicians think,” said Chir. He predicted that even if Russia invaded Ukraine, it would be limited to the eastern part and not even the capital, Kiev. This would provide the West with an excuse that ‘Russia is not interested in further aggression’, and Western politicians observed that they would tolerate this aggression.
“This basic scenario seems to have set a price on the market to some extent,” said Cir, strategist.
“More worrisome is whether Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will provoke China’s attack on Taiwan,” he said. This could affect the world economy much more profoundly than a Russian aggression.
New York = Correspondent Hyunseok Kim realist@hankyung.com
