Last year, 2022 was a year of turmoil, Although the world gradually emerged from the threat of the epidemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine pushed up inflation, which was high due to labor shortages, and the Federal Reserve continued the United States to raise interest rates in the face of inflation The turmoil in the global stock market caused by the global stock market, I believe that investors in the stock market were greatly touched by last year’s operation.
However, in 2023, Academia Sinica estimates that Taiwan’s GDP will grow by 2.41%, which is not far from Peng Bo’s forecast, and the annual growth rate of Taiwan’s GDP in 2023 may first squat and then jump. The annual growth rate of 1.5% in the first quarter will be the lowest in the whole year. Back and forth testing the performance of the economic countermeasure indicator and the weighted index of Taiwan stocks since 1984, the economic countermeasure indicator has fallen below the yellow and blue lights 172 times. If the buy actions are carried out at the end of the month when the yellow and blue lights appear, 145 times will make money, 27 times will lose money, the average return after a year of holding is approx. 25%, and the winning rate can reach around 85%. Therefore, once the boom light falls to the blue light, the winning rate will be higher. When Taiwan stocks have a chance to squat first and then jump in 2023, it also gives investors a good opportunity to go to into the market in the first quarter. in the medium to long term.
▲ Advanced process equipment
Gadeng (3680-TW)
The main product is the EUV machine, which is considered the most important product of the advanced 3nm production rate process, and the large customers of EUV POD have not disappeared, the nano process will continue to drive the increase of EUV POD unit price and shipment growth, and benefit China’s semiconductor manufacturers will be disorganized, the wafer carrier expansion plan will remain unchanged, and the visibility of orders will be long-term. This year’s 2023 EPS is estimated to be more than 15-17 yuan, and the rate will growth is very good. Regarding advanced process equipment, the current stock price is very high. Cheap.
Mask (2338-TW)
In 2022 and 2023, the production capacity of photo masks will increase by 5% and 15% respectively, but the estimated revenue will increase by 41% and 39% respectively. Related production value increase. And benefiting from the maturity of the wafer foundry to produce the E0L mask machine, the insufficient production capacity of the market makes the company advantageous when negotiating prices with customers. This year’s EPS is estimated at 7-8 yuan. As for advanced process equipment, the current stock price is very cheap.
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