[이데일리 임애신 기자] Exports are expected to increase in November as well, moving one step closer to the annual record-breaking record. The key is the size of the trade surplus. Although exports increased significantly compared to last year, imports increased even more due to rising raw material prices and international oil prices.
According to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy on the 27th, on the 1st of next month, the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy will announce ‘Export and Import Trends in November 2021’.
Exports in October were $55.55 billion, up 24% from a year earlier. This is the second largest since 1956, when trade statistics began to be compiled on a monthly basis, and the highest in October.
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Monthly exports increased for 12 consecutive months, and the cumulative export amount from January to October recorded $523.2 billion, which already exceeded the total export value of last year ($512.5 billion).
Exports are highly likely to continue their double-digit growth in November. According to the Korea Customs Service, exports from November 1 to 20 (provisional customs clearance) amounted to $39.9 billion, up 27.6% ($8.6 billion) from the same period last year.
With two months left in 2021, it is highly likely that annual exports this year will reach a record high. According to the ‘Export and Import Assessment for 2021 and Prospect for 2022’ released by the International Trade Research Institute of the Korea International Trade Association, exports this year are expected to increase by 24.1% to $636.2 billion, and imports to reach $605.7 billion, up 29.5% from the previous year. It is the second time that exports surpassed $600 billion in 2018, when it first exceeded $600 billion thanks to the boom in semiconductors.
The trade balance minus imports from exports also recorded a surplus for 18 consecutive months. The problem is that the size of the trade surplus has significantly decreased compared to last year. The trade surplus between January and October was $26.963 billion, down from $32.36 billion in the same period last year. This means that exports have increased more than exports.
The sharp drop in the trade surplus compared to last year despite good export performance is largely due to the rise in international oil prices while raw material prices continue to rise this year.
In fact, when looking at the increase in imports by item in October, petroleum products jumped by 269.4%, while gas (137.3%), coal (88%), and crude oil (82.9%) showed remarkable increases.
Global supply chain disruptions are also getting longer. Among the 15 major export items last month, exports of automobiles (-4.7%) and auto parts (-1.2%) decreased from a year earlier. This is because the automobile industry’s production has decreased due to continued disruptions in the supply and demand of semiconductors for vehicles.
In November and December, large events such as China’s Singles Day (November 11) and American Black Friday (November 26) are scheduled. There is concern that this could act as a factor that will further intensify the global logistics crisis. The continuous rise in sea freight rates caused by this is expected to act as a variable for imports and exports.
The following are the major schedules and press plans of the Ministry of Industry for next week.
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main schedule
△29th (Mon)
15:00 Winter electricity supply and demand related field visit meeting (Minister, Boryeong Power Headquarters)
16:30 7th Special Countermeasures Committee on Fine Dust (Second Vice Minister, Seoul Government Complex)
Business trip to Geneva, Switzerland on the 27th and 5th (Director of Trade and Negotiation Headquarters)
△30th (Tuesday)
10:00 Cabinet meeting (Minister, Seoul Government Complex)
15:00 Announcement of carbon neutral standardization strategy (1st Vice Minister, Intercontinental Hotel)
10:00 National Assembly Debate on the Enactment of the Framework Act on Resource Security (Second Vice Minister, National Assembly)
10:30 Energy Innovation Enterprise Solidarity Cooperation Forum (Second Vice Minister, FKI Hall)
△1 day (Wednesday)
09:00 Debate on the results of the sub-minister and the National Assembly (1st Vice Minister, Assembly Hall)
14:00 Sustainability Management Award Ceremony (1st Vice Minister, Korea Chamber of Commerce)
△ 2nd (Thursday)
07:30 Economic Major (Minister, Seoul Government Complex)
10:30 Vice Ministers Meeting (1st Vice Minister, Seoul Government Complex)
16:30 On-site inspection for quarantine management of distribution facilities (1st Vice Minister, Uiwang Lotte Outlet)
17:30 UAE 50th Anniversary Celebration (Minister, Shilla Hotel)
△ 3rd (Friday)
08:30 Middle School (1st Vice Minister, Seoul Government Complex)
10:00 Innovation Growth BIG3 Meeting (Minister, Hwaseong Automobile Safety Research Institute)
14:00 Sub-Director No. 1 Fund Profit Scholarship Delivery Ceremony (Minister, Seoul Government Complex)
15:00 City Gas Industry Volunteer Day (Minister, Seongdong Welfare Center for the Disabled)
press release
△29th (Mon)
11:00 Global Vaccine Business Forum held on the occasion of the 12th WTO Ministerial Meeting
11:00 Held the 8th Free Economic Zone Innovation Promotion Council
11:00 Discussion on ways to strengthen economic and trade cooperation with Jiangsu Province in China
11:00 Sales trends of major retailers in October 2021
15:00 Electricity-related organizations winter electricity supply and demand inspection meeting
△30th (Tuesday)
06:00 Held the 3rd Energy Innovation Enterprise Solidarity and Cooperation Forum
08:00 Defense Acquisition Program Administration-National Institute of Technology and Standards, signed a business agreement for standardization of civil and military standards
11:00 Deregulation to stabilize the supply and demand of imported industrial gas for semiconductor manufacturing, etc.
11:00 Carbon neutral core tool, standard development blueprint released
11:00 Held a public-private joint seminar on carbon-neutral industrial transformation
11:00 2nd Social Design Demo Day event held
△1 day (Wednesday)
11:00 Export and Import Trends in November 2021
11:00 2021 Sustainability Management Award Ceremony held
11:00 Held the 2021 Korea Fashion Awards
11:00 Opening of Korea Online Export Industry Exhibition
11:00 Meeting to strengthen communication with the renewable energy industry
11:00 Completion ceremony for eco-friendly auto parts cluster construction project
11:00 Design leads industrial innovation
11:00 Held an eco-friendly and remanufactured product briefing session for ESG leading financial companies
11:00 Accelerate FTA negotiations with large emerging economies
△ 2nd (Thursday)
06:00 Industry Convergence Regulation Sandbox Approved Business Council
06:00 Reinforcement of preemptive manpower support in response to the transition to the automobile industry
06:00 Strengthen cooperation with the United States for standardization of semiconductors, quantum technology, future vehicles, and artificial intelligence
11:00 1st Vice Minister, large distribution facilities Corona 19 quarantine check
11:00 Held a meeting of the senior representatives of the Korea-Russia Industrial Cooperation Committee
11:00 Carbon-neutral energy technology roadmap presentation held
11:00 Gwangju Hydrogen Production Base Groundbreaking Ceremony
△ 3rd (Friday)
11:00 Director Pilseung Korea Fund Scholarship Delivery Ceremony
13:00 Promotion of digital conversion advancement to strengthen future car industry competitiveness
15:00 Support the city gas industry and the underprivileged for a warm winter
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