The three major A-share indexes collectively closed down today, of whichShanghai IndexFell 0.92% to close at 3573.18 points;Shenzhen Component IndexFell 0.99% to close at 14,999.80 points;Growth Enterprise Market IndexIt fell 0.19% to close at 3,406.24 points. The turnover of the two cities fell below one trillion yuan, the industry sector showed a general downward trend, and the silicone concept stocks bucked the market and strengthened. Northbound funds sold a net 3.139 billion yuan today.
Regarding the market outlook, institutions have expressed their views.
Guotai JunanSecurities recommends not to be short for the sake of being short, to escape from the imprisonment of stock thinking, to attach importance to marginal improvement, and the rise to be continued. The next step is to pull up, and now it is completely too late to do more. With the determination of inflation and credit contraction, the downward risk evaluation continues to drive the market upward.Also risk-freeinterest rateThe downward trend will become a new force, which will drive the market upward together with risk assessment. 1) Short-term perspective: the short-term market under the domestic central bank’s unexpected net releaseinterest rateMarginal downward, foreign inflation expectations have fallen, and long-term interest rates on U.S. debt have also fallen marginally. On June 24, the central bank in China increased the scale of reversal for the first time after a lapse of three months, and exceeded expectations by increasing the net investment of 20 billion OMO to maintain stability.bankThe short-end interest rate of the inter-market is mainly down. In addition, although deposit interest rate reform is not a “disguised interest rate cut”, the central bank’s statement that “maintaining reasonable and abundant liquidity is not an empty talk” also conveys a positive signal. In the future, with the increase in inflation tolerance, steady growth pressure, and possible credit problems, the more backward it is, the easier it will become and the harder it will be. Overseas, although interest rate hike expectations moved forward after the interest rate meeting, long-term interest rates on U.S. Treasury bonds did not rise but fell due to the fall in inflation expectations. 2) Long-term perspective:real estateThe tax pilot is expected to increase, and the structure of residents’ asset allocation will change. From the perspective of the allocation of major assets, the stock market is expected to usher in more incremental funds.
CICCIt is pointed out that the global epidemic is “first in, first out”, and China’s economic growth rate is gradually falling from rapid recovery to normal growth. The policy environment may gradually be biased towards supporting growth; the market is temporarily digesting inflation expectations. In this context, the market is worried about funds. After the market’s focus has gradually shifted from “post-epidemic recovery” to “normalized growth”, a growth style with high relative prosperity, large growth potential, and continued industrial cycles may still be the main line of the market. Looking forward, the market may fluctuate in the short term after some indexes are close to their previous highs. However, in the general direction, the market may still maintain a positive risk appetite, and the market style may show the characteristics of “growth-oriented, taking into account the cycle”.
Industrial SecuritiesJudging, the three phases are superimposed during the stable period of the domestic economy, the warm policy period, and the liquidity-friendly period. Accelerated economic recovery,currencyThe policy has remained stable, the global currency market funds have accelerated the return of risky assets, and the global equity assets are in the “honeymoon period.”The market is moving from the layout of the “centennial” market, slowly unfolding, and gradually entering a better situation, into the “summer market” of scorching hot, scorching sun, and shining sun. It continues to prompt over-proportioning growth and pay attention to the interim report.PerformanceHigh cost-effective assets that exceed expectations. In the next stage, we can focus on the catalyst for the mid-term report. Economic recovery,PPITo maintain a high level of operation, it is possible to rush for high-cost assets whose performance exceeds expectations in the gold rush, especially low-valued leaders such as chemicals, machinery, non-ferrous metals, and coal.
According to the analysis of Essence Securities, the current market as a whole continues to be in a turbulent stage. In the short term, the market is in a favorable environment,bankMarket liquidity is expected to be stable, and overseas concerns have also been eased. At the same time, the adjustment pressure of the strong stocks in the early stage of the market is rising, and the supplementary gains of the weak stocks in the early stage have started. The space for this round of index to continue to rise may be limited. In the medium and long term, this year’s interim report and the second half of AStock baseThe real probability is better than market expectations,MidlandUnder the background of the significant dovish reserve and the completion of the domestic economic recovery, the domestic bond market yields have limited upward space, and the overall liquidity environment and risk appetite factors are still favorable. The profitability and growth of enterprises will become the core of the market in the next stage logic.
Guosheng Securities emphasized that there will be no systemic risks in the second half of the year, whether it is domestic or overseas, and that shocks will continue. Use every panic caused by fluctuations to find buying opportunities. Focus on the future, grasp the present, and deploy scientific innovation. Three clues to the “Nuggets” science and technology innovation board: 1) Develop a new direction for A-shares, and benchmark the scarce subdivision track “unicorn”. 2) Performance growth has been leading the “high growth” of science and technology; 3) Since its listing, the retracement has been deep, has fallen below the issue price, and has a valuation cost-effective from the perspective of PEG; the petroleum and petrochemical and chemical industries that benefit from overseas demand Non-ferrous, photovoltaic and other sectors. Subdivision tracks such as new energy vehicles, semiconductors & consumer electronics, AI, CXO services & medical aesthetics, and sub-high-end liquors with strong certainty of the economy and high growth potential.
Yuekai Securities said that looking forward to the market outlook, the index will likely continue to fluctuate at a high level. With the continuous recovery of the global economy and the tightening of overseas liquidity, the price increase caused by the mismatch of supply and demand and the over-abundant liquidity environment will be expected. Alleviated, commodity prices are expected to usher in an inflection point in the second half of the year. The RMB exchange rate is likely to maintain two-way fluctuations, and the probability of unilateral continued appreciation is small. Focus on three main lines in the allocation direction: First, focus on the improvement of semi-annual performance expectations and the performance-than-expected sector. The second is to pay attention to the configuration of the growth style with high prosperity. At present, the market’s consensus on the layout of the main line of growth is continuously improving. In the context of sustained economic recovery, a growth style with strong policy support, broad development prospects, and strong profitability has a stronger premium ability. The third is to pay attention to thematic investment opportunities in environmental protection-related industries under the policy dividend.
(Article Source:Oriental wealthResearch center)