A stern warning from the Ukraine crisis to the Korean Peninsula[세계의 눈/패트릭 크로닌]

Patrick Cronin, Chair of Asia Pacific Security at the Hudson Institute

Russia’s threat to Ukraine is also becoming a strategic threat to the Korean Peninsula. Russia is rewriting the textbook on retaliatory tactics to recover lost territories of great powers. Such a change is an ominous sign for Asia, especially Korea, which has been following the existing order under international law. South Korea threatened to create a second Cuban missile crisis by deploying more than 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border, embarking on massive cyber operations that could paralyze Ukraine’s computer networks, and deploying hypersonic missiles in the Western Hemisphere. That’s why you should be concerned.

Russia is changing its tactics for occupying Ukrainian territory. When Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, it launched a ‘hybrid war’ that mixed regular and cyber warfare. But now, instead of an all-out war, Russia is trying to take part of Ukraine’s territory at minimal cost.

To this end, Russia is busy setting traps in its neighbors. Recently, a senior U.S. government official said that Russia had infiltrated agents disguised as Ukrainians to build a justification for the invasion of Ukraine. In addition, Microsoft announced that it had identified a dangerous malware that Russia had planted to cause massive disruptions to Ukrainian computer networks.

Russia’s revisionism to change the existing order is just as troublesome as military operations. Russian diplomats used diplomatic negotiations as a stage to assert the security agreement they were asking for, even though they knew the request was unacceptable from the US and NATO. In this deceptive way, they are propagating as if they are interested in maintaining peace, while at the same time creating a justification for taking coercive and unilateral action against Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s goal is to re-create the former Soviet empire. He weaponized energy exports and sent troops to Kazakhstan after anti-government protests broke out in Russia. At a time when we thought America and Europe were divided and weakened, we deliberately set out to test against the United States.

Another reason why the Ukraine crisis is a warning to the Korean Peninsula. Chinese President Xi Jinping and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will be watching as the administration of Joe Biden has decided to shift significant resources and capabilities away from China and the Indo-Pacific region, which have been the focus of foreign strategy, to solve the Russian problem. The situation in which the US must respond simultaneously on two fronts, Europe and the Indo-Pacific, could open the door for malicious actions.

Xi is expected to prepare an epic victory for the one-party dictatorship this year. It will conclude with the success of the Beijing Winter Olympics next month and the materialization of Xi’s third term in office at the 20th Party Congress of the Communist Party of China in the second half of the year. China, concerned about escalating cooperation between the United States and its allies, will be happy to accept a situation that accelerates China’s rise.

Some warn that Russia’s threat to Ukraine could cover China’s offensive on Taiwan. However, a Chinese offensive on Taiwan is less likely than a Russian military intervention in Ukraine. China wants to win more without fighting than Russia.

In the meantime, North Korea has become a happy free-rider with security guaranteed for free amid the escalating tensions between major powers. Since the early days of Kim’s tenure in power ten years ago, North Korea has adhered to the policy of nuclear deterrence and the promotion of economic growth. North Korea’s recent repeated missile tests demonstrate Kim’s determination that economic sanctions will do little to thwart North Korea’s nuclear and missile ambitions.

If the US does not ease sanctions, Kim will re-establish relations with North Korea’s traditional backers to take advantage of the rivalry between the US, China and Russia. China and Russia are fervently advocating for the reduction of US sanctions on North Korea. Chairman Kim would also welcome the struggles between South Korea and Japan to complain about historical issues or to prevent South Korea-U.S.-Japan cooperation from functioning properly.

Russia skillfully handles the Biden administration’s aspirations to exercise leadership through diplomacy instead of peace through force. South Korea should understand the strategies of these revisionists as soon as possible and support strengthening collective security with allies and partners in order to contain their offensive.

Patrick Cronin, Chair of Asia Pacific Security at the Hudson Institute

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