With the general election less than two weeks away, and the Liberals and Keepers still attached to the poll, the vote could decide on the outcome. This is why:
In 2011, when Conservatives won Stephen Harper's majority government, 61 percent of eligible voters spent a ballot. But in 2015, which was given to Justin Trudeau by a Liberal majority government, the number of people who voted was up to 68 per cent, an unprecedented level of more than twenty years. The reason for the Canadian Election was the increased participation of younger voters.
To study this phenomenon, I looked at seven rubs, chosen more than randomly, within the 905, the suburban award band surrounding Toronto. The seven Curators went in 2011, then transferred to the Liberals in 2015. (Thanks to Alice Funke of Pundits A guide to redistributing the 2011 results to the 2015 limits.)
In all riding, the number of voters as Keeper in 2015 was almost the same as in 2011. In some cases it increased slightly. But the Conservatives still lost. Why?
There were two reasons. Firstly, the NDP vote in all riding decreased between 2011 and 2015, sometimes as many as half. It is reasonable to assume that NDP deserters migrated to the Liberals.
More importantly, the total number of votes cast in each riding increased in 2015, and these new voters were Liberals. In Burlington, the Liberal vote was doubled. In Whitby he grew fourfold.
Bottom line: In 2015, the Conservative vote was taking place, but it was overwhelmed by new voters and NDP defaulters who voted in Liberals.
What does this mean for those disposals in 2019? Since the Conservative vote is stable for two elections, and since there is no Tory rise in the polls, we can reasonably predict that the Conservators will receive the same level of support in the future.
Whether these disposals are held as Keeper or Liberals depends on whether the voters who came to vote for Mr Trudeau in 2015 come out again.
The good news for the Liberals, Richard Johnston, a political scientist at the University of British Columbia, who is one of the leading voting authorities in Canada, says that the most reliable indicator of a person voting in any particular election is their vote. in the previous one. "This means that people who came out in 2015 are likely to come back again this time," he believes – although this adds to it, it does not mean that they will not vote the Liberals.
For pollsters, it is vital to assess who will vote to predict election results. The approach taken by Darrell Bricker at Ipsos Public Affairs is to create a portrait of the civic literacy of the people being questioned. (Mr Bricker and I have written two books.) Respondents are asked if they know the date of the general election, know their polling station, and how closely they are following the campaign.
They are also asked behavioral questions, for example: How do you feel about elections that you do not vote in? How would you do not hit this time, which would make you feel?
Based on each respondent's knowledge and perspective, Ipsos assigns a score, and then runs voting models and seat projections based on such percentage voters coming out, meaning that the intentions of those with a particular score or higher are made. they count.
But what is that percentage? “The hardest thing is to work out,” says Mr Bricker. He believes that false Liberal support could prevent voting levels from 2015.
Peter Loewen, professor of political science at the University of Toronto, believes that the number of people voted in 2011 was a low-water mark, with unsuccessful party leaders and a dissatisfied community, and 2015 was the high water mark, in particular. among young voters. He suspects that voting will take place this year somewhere.
The curators say he was unable to grow his vote under the Conservative leader Andrew Scheer. The bad news for the Liberals is that young people who voted for them in 2015 could stay at home or display and vote the NDP. “It is a double sword for the Liberals,” he said.
But when it comes to predicting predictions, he says, the best guess is still there. “It's a mug game.” T
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