#Than Hoon – TISCO Securities Co, Ltd said in the analysis. After participating in the AAV Investor Day at Asia Aviation Academy with the following key points:
There are plans to add 5 new aircraft per year – AAV plans to have a fleet of 74 aircraft by 2026, with 45 currently in service, which is 85% of its total of 53 aircraft which will be back to 100% by the end of the year.
Higher shipping rates – AAV aims to have 20 million passengers by 2023 or 90% for 2019, and combined with high freight rates for 2023 compared to pre-Covid. and an average price increase of 20% compared to 2019
The international market is expected to recover in 2024 – AAV expects that passengers in 2023 will be divided into 65% domestic and 35% international, compared to the time before COVID at 60: 40, which the research department expects to return to normal by 2024 after returning Chinese travel.
The transport rate increased in Q1/23 –Management expects freight rates to be 92 – 94% in Q1/23 versus 90% in Q1/19, supporting the recovery of research division profits and expecting demand in Q2/23 to continue from holidays long and the increase in Chinese tourists after passport renewal. in May-June, especially for routes from India and China, 110 flights are expected compared to 140 in 2019, representing 7-8 million in Q2 compared to the target of 30 million of people per year.
perspective on the competition – Managers are not concerned about increased competition as it is difficult for new competitors to compete. Airlines currently have more than 20 aircraft to gain economies of scale. And with the usage rate still the same as 2019, the research department believes there will be no price cuts.
Asia Aviation Academy – After being completed in 2019 to reduce the cost of pilot training, the AAV can reduce costs. and solve the problem of staff shortages And this project is also open to other entrepreneurs. come to use the service
Research perspective – The AAV fleet expansion plan in 2023 – 2025 is in line with the research projection. And expanding the business will help solve the industry’s problems in the future. Still recommend”buy” with reasonable value 3.50 baht
