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The 63rd American JCC (GII, turf 2200m) will be held at Nakayama Racecourse on the 23rd.I made a good run in 2nd place at last year’s Kikuka AwardOrthoclase, Mainichi Okan 3rd place, Kinko Sho 3rd placePotage, 2020 Meguro Kinen WinnerKing of KojiEtc. are scheduled to run.
Here, we will read the development from the good running conditions of the American JCC and the assumed members, and will be a hint of the betting ticket.Dangerous popular horseAsPotageI want to take up.
◆[American Jockey Club Cup 2022 / Pedigree tendency]A pedigree composition that changes completely by extending the distance.
■ Autumn, the 6th Emperor’s Award, even though I challenged myself in a head-to-head game
First of all, the previous run of PotageEmperor’s Award, AutumnTo analyze.
From a good start, he raced in a position near 4th on the way. When the pitch went up from around the 4th corner, he advanced with Curren Bouquetd’s outside, and the straight line extended his legs aiming at Gran Alegria in front, but active top class Efforia, Contrail, Gran Alegria I couldn’t help, and I lost to 6th place in the form of flowing.
Including the pedigree background with Rouge Buck (2 Oaks, 1 All Comers, 1 Mainichi Okan) as a close relative, “Good blood that maintains a high horse racing sense and can use the end legs steadily regardless of the number” from the battle history so far. It can be evaluated as a horse. In addition, the result since his debut was[5-4-2-1]and in addition to having the highest achievement of the members, the only one who removed the bulletin board was the previous run Emperor’s Award, one race in the fall. It is natural that expectations for a good run will increase this time as the jockey Yuga Kawada, who led Yoho Lake to victory last week, will continue to ride.
However, this time it will be a race at Nakayama Racecourse since the new horse race, and the results after the next run of the horse that removed the bulletin board at the Emperor’s Award / Autumn are not good, so it is a bit of a potage. Anxiety remains.
■ There is a big wall for 5th or less
Next, let’s compare and analyze the results of the good run group (1st to 5th) on the bulletin board of the Emperor’s Award / Autumn and the horses that were 6th or less after the next run.
1st place Efforia also won the Arima Kinen of the next run and was elected as the representative horse of the year, 2nd place Contrail won the next run Japan C, 3rd place Gran Alegria also won the Mile CS, 4th place Sunray Pocket Hishi Iguazu, who finished 4th in Japan C and 2nd in Hong Kong C, continued to run well in the next run.
On the other hand, the next run of the horse that was off the bulletin board has only the result of “GI devastating defeat” or “up to 3rd place in GIII”, so the ability and achievements are large compared to the horses from 1st to 5th place. It looks like there was a wall.
In other words, the high-level Tenno Sho, 6th place in the fall, tends to be more popular than it is, so it is necessary to determine the content and quality of the race. As mentioned above, although he has been racing in a position near 4th on the way from a good start, he has no legs to beat the first-class old horses, and he just flowed in with a development profit and remained in 6th place, but it seems that it will not collapse this time as well, but Asamano Considering the rise of horse races such as mischief and orthoclase, it is expected that even if you use your legs freely, you will be targeted to the bulletin board.
■ Potage that one last leg falls in the heavy prize
Next, we will analyze the good run patterns of the American JCC.
・3F 1st place[4-3-2-4]30.8% win rate, 53.8% streak rate, 69.2% return rate
・3F 2nd place[1-2-2-5]10.0% win rate, 30.0% streak rate, 50.0% return rate
・3F 3rd place[1-2-1-7]9.1% win rate, 27.3% streak rate, 36.4% return rate
・3F ~ 5th place[2-1-2-13]11.1% win rate, 16.7% streak rate, 27.8% return rate
・3F 6th place[2-2-3-78]2.4% win rate, 4.7% streak rate, 8.2% return rate
In this way, the “fastest horse to climb” has won the most 4 wins, last year the last draft (6 popular) went up and 3rd place with the fastest last leg, and in 2020 the blast onepiece (1 popular) went up and the fastest. Fierement (1 popular) went up in 19 and pushed to 2nd place with the fastest last leg, and he has been running well in the betting ticket for 6 consecutive years. Just as the 1st to 4th places dominated the bulletin board at the Keisei Stakes the other day, it is a stage setting that requires a “fast rise” even in the Baba condition of the last week of Nakayama.
Potage went up in a total of 6 races from the Huang Ju Award (1 win class) to Kishiwada S (3 win class) in the 2nd debut race, and although he was running well with the fastest end leg, he went up to 3rd place on the heavy prize front. The result is that up to is the best. In addition, the horse that was in the previous race at Tokyo Racecourse was very sluggish at[0-1-2-17]and the fact that the concordance rate was only 5.0% seems to be a cause for concern for Potage. Considering the delicacy of betting tickets from the above uncertainties, Potage is evaluated as “erased”.
In “Part 2”, I will introduce the favorite to replace Potage and the conclusion including 4 Anomas.
◆[American Jockey Club Cup 2022 Forecast / Dangerous Popular Horse-Part 2]Refocus on the high-dividend maker Anoma
◆[American Jockey Club Cup 2022 / Leg quality tendency]”American Jockey Club Cup 2022 / Leg quality tendency” Anxiety factor of “out of V area” in the top popularity while “leading” has won for 6 consecutive years
◆[American Jockey Club Cup 2022 / Popularity Trend]Even if you can trust the most popular of “5 consecutive years in a row”, you should be wary of the ambush with a win recovery value of “532%”.
Sentence, Kouki Nishitate (SPREAD editorial department)
