[AJCC / Data Strategy-Part 1]A tailwind of “100% betting ticket rate” for leading horses


This week at Nakayama Racecourse, a handicap grade raceAmerican JCC(Turf 2200m) will be held.

A traditional rival that takes place in the midwinter. Just as Blast Onepiece, whose retirement was announced the other day, has won this race, the winning horse can also find the name of the GI horse. Going back, horses familiar with “Uma Musume” such as Special Week and Tosen Jordan are also winners of the race.

Unraveling with data this yearAmerican JCC.. Please see the keywords that emerged from the data analysis of the past 10 years.

◆[American Jockey Club Cup 2022 Prediction / Dangerous Popular Horse-Part 1]One of the two strongest horses is “erased”.

■ “Betting ticket rate 83%” data to support orthoclase

Since the debut, there is no outside of the betting ticket and an outstanding sense of stability.At the Kikuka Award, it was the second title holder to prove himself again.Orthoclaseis. As long as we are in the top group of the high-level 4-year-old generation, we can see that this is an unbeatable battle, but is there any numerical boost?

・ A 4-year-old horse belonging to a Shadai club with 3rd place in the Nakayama Shiba Heavy Award[1-2-2-1]

When converted to the betting ticket rate, it is 83%. This is also the case with the second Vert Reisende last year, which can be said to be highly reliable data.Course aptitude x owner x age multiplication leadsOrthoclaseGood material. I would like to make a name for myself as the leading role of the generation in the wake of this race.

■ “100% betting ticket rate” data is applicable to Potage

Since debut, there is only one outside the betting ticketPotage.go forwardEmperor’s Award, AutumnWas that race, but at that time there would be some unavoidable parts because it was a super A-class member who could be called the “three strongest in Japan” of Efforia, Contrail, and Gran Alegria. The following data will be a boost this time, which is expected to be rewound.

・ Clockwise results[4-2-0-0]

100% when converted to the quinella rate. Last year it was a counterclockwise rotation only, but the true value of this horse is demonstrated only on a short straight clockwise course. Nakayama Shiba’s winning record is included in the four wins, and I would like to imagine a scene where he will defeat a powerful 4-year-old horse by changing his specialty.

In the second part, we will introduce two American JCC Anoma candidates that emerge from the data side.

◆[American Jockey Club Cup 2022 Forecast / Data Strategy-Part 2]Blind spots with estimated odds of around 50 times Good results of “3-4-0-1” instead of conditions

◆[American Jockey Club Cup 2022 Forecast / Dangerous Popular Horse-Part 2]Refocus on the high-dividend maker Anoma.

◆[Tokai Stakes 2022 Forecast / Hole Rise]Rewinding of assumed win odds “2-digit” “The terrible defeat of the short run is not a reference”

▼ Horse Racing Story Teller, Motonari Tahara’s Group Race Analysis TV “AJCC Edition”

Author profile

Motonari Tahara (Near Tahara) ● Horse-race critic
“Horse Racing Story Teller” continues to convey the appeal of horse racing predictions to the world. Feeling a mysterious charm to expectations, he wrote a horse racing book in the fields of rotation and pedigree. Currently writing a column at “Horse Racing Salon” in UMAJIN[Horse Racing Critic Motonari Tahara’s Perspectives on Expectations]. In “SPREAD”, we will unravel the background that can be read from data analysis and convey “the essence of horse racing behind the data”.



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