[천지일보=김현진 기자] Industrial production in October fell the most in a year and a half as production in the manufacturing and service industries declined side by side. However, the government’s position is that it is too early to judge that the economic recovery has been dampened, as there were two alternative holidays in October and the base effect on strong production in September had an impact.
According to the Industrial Activity Trends of the National Statistical Office on the 30th, the index of all industrial production (excluding seasonal adjustments, agriculture, forestry and fisheries) in October was 110.8 (2015 = 100), down 1.9% from the previous month. This is the largest decline since April last year (-2.0%).
All industrial production decreased by 0.7% and 0.1% in July and August, respectively, and then rebounded to 1.1% in September, then turned negative again in October.
By industry, mining and industrial production fell 3.0%, the largest decline since May last year (-7.7%) in one year and five months. As a result, mining and industrial production continued to decline for the third consecutive month from August (-0.5%).
Manufacturing production, which accounts for a significant portion of mining and industrial production, fell 3.1%. As global supply chain disruptions continued, manufacturing production continued to decline for the fourth consecutive month since July.
In particular, production of automobiles (-5.1%) decreased due to disruptions in the supply and demand of semiconductors for vehicles, and primary metal production (-5.9%) also decreased due to the sluggishness of downstream industries such as automobiles. Manufacturing inventories increased by 3.5%, showing an increase in semiconductors, etc.
The manufacturing industry’s inventory/shipment ratio (stock ratio) rose 7.5 percentage points to 121.0%.
The service sector, which increased by 1.4% in September, also turned to a decrease of 0.3% in October. This is due to a decrease in financial product transactions, a fall in stock prices, and a decrease in financial and insurance production (-2.1%). However, production of lodging and restaurants (4.5%), a representative face-to-face industry, continued to increase. Public administration decreased by 8.9%. The decrease is the largest since March 2013 (-9.8%). Construction fell 1.3%.
The retail sales index (seasonally adjusted), which shows consumption trends, was 121.5 (2015 = 100), up 0.2% from the previous month. The retail sales index showed an upward trend for the second month following September (2.4%).
Sales of non-durable goods (-2.1%) such as cosmetics decreased, but sales of semi-durable goods (2.8%) such as clothes increased as demand for outdoor and winter clothing increased, and sales of durable goods (2.2%) such as heating appliances increased.
By business type, sales at passenger car and fuel retail stores (-3.7%) decreased compared to the same month last year, but specialized retail stores (11.2%), non-store retail (12.9%), department stores (22.8%), duty-free stores (15.0%), convenience stores (5.4%) ), hypermarkets (4.5%), supermarkets and general stores (1.7%).
Facility investment fell 5.4% as investment in transportation equipment such as machinery and ships decreased, and construction completion fell 1.3%.
The coincident index, which represents the current economy, fell 0.2 points to 101.0. The cyclical variability of the leading index, which predicts the future economy, fell 0.5 point to 101.6.
The cyclical volatility of the coincident index has been on the decline for the second month, and the cyclical volatility of the leading index has been declining for the fourth month, respectively.
Eo Woon-seon, director of economic trend statistics at the National Statistical Office, said, “I think the uncertainty about the future economic trend is still large because the uncertainty about the domestic corona is increasing and there are also downside factors such as disruptions in the global supply chain and rising raw material prices.” The sluggishness should be viewed in consideration of the decrease in the number of working days due to the designation of alternative holidays and the fact that the base effect of September was high,” he said.
Hong Nam-ki, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Strategy and Finance, said on his Facebook page on the same day, “Most of the indicators fell relatively large compared to the previous month.” needs to be interpreted,” he said.
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