Mr. Anusorn Tamajai Former Director and Member of the Audit Committee Bank of Thailand (BOT) discussed the upward direction of interest rates in the global financial market which began to slow down. Many countries have started to show signs that they can manage inflation to meet their targets. Inflationary pressures have fallen significantly in many regions. The financial markets and the economy recovered. Alleviating concerns about the global recession. and predicts that Global economic growth is likely to be 2.7-2.8% World trade growth is expected to be 2.5-2.6%, despite lower than average global economic growth and trade volume during the year 2010-2019 But it is considered that the global economy has not faced any recession. But it may be that only some countries will experience a recession next year. The impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war has been mitigated. The war did not spread widely but it could continue.
Continuing trade surplus The current account will be in surplus next year. Money is flowing into investment in ASEAN and Thailand. the real economy and the financial markets This will cause the baht to turn around faster and stronger than many people originally expected. The baht will appreciate gradually at the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023, and an average of 34.50-36.50 baht / dollar is expected in 2023, with some periods when the baht experiences the level of 33 baht / dollar. Short-term cash flow to the stock market with good overall performance of listed companies And the price is not expensive As a result, the ASEAN and Thai stock markets have factors that attract money from foreigners outside the region . Expect to see a test of the stock market index 1,680-1,700 at the end of the year or early next year.
If the BOT raises the policy rate at the end of this month, more than the financial market expects to increase by 0.25%, it will lead to further appreciation of the baht. Interest rate rises have no significant effect on controlling inflation in the short term. It does not have much effect on the general stock market But it will encourage the stocks in the banking group. Finance and insurance are more interesting. This can make stocks in real estate and companies financially structured with high debt-to-equity ratios less attractive.
An increase in the policy rate, when complemented by a higher FIDF fee, from 0.23% to 0.46%, is expected to increase the operating costs of the banking system. The BOT and the Ministry of Finance see that the economy is likely to recover and want the country to be able to pay the debts of the FIDF Financial Institutions Development Fund, which is considered part of the public debt, by 2032, while the FIDF an outstanding amount of 672,614 million baht and will have interest costs during the financial year 2013-2012 of approximately 20 billion baht per year Collection of payments to cover the additional FIDF debt will allow the debt to be completed within the next ten years. the previous period The BOT has reduced the burden of FIDF debt to commercial banks. As a result, commercial banks can reduce interest rates for customers by around 0.50% per year. When the debt payment burden is increased, the FIDF expects that loan interest rates will increase by at least 0.50-1% of the higher interest rate. of the higher interest rate of the higher interest rate. policy rate. already anticipated that commercial banks must transfer the burden of paying FIDF debt fees to bank customers or debtors. both in the form of fees Higher loan interest rates And real interest rates on deposits may go lower than they should be over the next few years. Therefore policies to promote more competition and more liberalization in the financial sector are important to the public. both in terms of the dimension of accessing financial services thoroughly at a fair price
By InfoQuest News Agency (13 Nov ’22)
Tags: lifestyle, loan interest, BOT, Anusorn Tamajai, global economy, Thai economy
