HoonSmart.com.>> “Asia Securities Plus” assesses the Thai stock market in the first quarter of 2016 to continue rising. Company profits are expected to grow 11.2%, higher than developed countries. Attract Fund Flow Looking at the index target this year at 1,810 – 1,860 points, recommend investing in outstanding profitable stocks, high dividend stocks and investment options in the foreign chip manufacturing industry.
Mr. Therdsak Thaweetheerathum, Deputy Managing Director, Research Division, Asia Plus Securities Company Limited (ASPS), said that in 2022, the Thai stock market still has an uptrend. Assessing overall investment in the first quarter of 2022, the Thai stock market continues to rise. Factors supported by 1.) There is an interesting comparative Valuation: the Thai stock market has a Forward Market Earning Yield Gap 2022F at 4.4%, higher than the 10-year average of 3.9% and higher than the US stock market has Forward Market Earning. Yield Gap 2022F will drop to 3.7% (below historical average) under three interest rate hikes.
2.) Domestic liquidity is still a supporting factor Thai interest rates are expected will maintain interest rates as low as 0.5% throughout the year and the latest combined savings and fixed deposits at 16.4 trillion baht, a record high Considered as a supporting factor 3.) Expected profit of Thai listed companies (EPS Growth) in 2022 at 94 hundred thousand million baht or at 81.8 baht per share or expected to grow 11.2%, higher than developed countries such as the United States, expected to grow 6% as a factor Attract Fund Flow 4.) Thai economic growth in 2022 is at 3.5%, increasing from 1% in 2021.
“In the beginning of 2022, the Thai stock market may have a short-term pressure. From sales of LTF funds in 2016 that matured around 16-17 billion baht in the first month of 2021 from accumulated purchases at the market value of 63.8 billion baht, with a comparative cost of 1,504 points, but the other side There will be support from Fund Flow. Foreigners start to see more Momentum flows into the Thai stock market in December 2021, around 23 billion baht and start to see continuous net buying in January 2022. Another issue is The trend of reducing the QE limit and raising the US interest rate. This will cause liquidity in the financial system to decline,” said Therdsak.
The main pressure factor is monitoring the impact of the Omicron covid epidemic after the increase in the number of infected people in the country, but believe that the impact will be limited as it is believed that the government will not return to a strict lockdown like in 2020-2021. due to the current environmental situation different from the past Both the high 1-2% vaccination rate and the stance of governments around the world to restrict economic activities. But the selection is limited in some areas. Overall, we believe that there will be no downside to Thai listed companies’ earnings forecasts in 2022 and Thai economic growth in 2022 with significant implications.
“For the 2022 index target frame of 1,810 – 1,860 points under the average Market Earning Yield Gap of 3.9%, the 1-year Bond Yield is in the range of 0.5% – 0.62% based on the 1-year Bond Yield framework,” Mr. Therdsak said
However, it is a good opportunity to accumulate strong fundamental stocks. when it shrinks down” with the strategy focusing on accumulating good fundamental stocks and those with strong profit growth this year, such as STEC, IVL, SMT, as well as outstanding dividend stocks that will be shielded from interest rates: AP, TISCO (dividend paid once a year) and SCC, ADVANC (dividend paid annually) 2 times each)”
Ms. Krittayaporn Thadasih, Head of Foreign Securities Investment, Asia Plus Securities, sees that the processing chip is an important electronic component for technological advancement. like the brains of various devices Because whether it is any equipment from mobile phones, computers, machines used in industrial plants communication network until the motor vehicle All require a chip to process the operation. As a result, the global processing chip industry has a tendency to grow steadily every year.
Factors supporting the chip industry include the adoption of electric vehicles, which are supported by governments around the world. Whether it is to support the manufacturing sector to be able to produce cars at a lower cost and with more efficiency in production. including encouraging more consumers to switch to electric cars Another factor is the growth of the Data Center business, driven by the adoption of cloud systems in the fields of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML), as well as the resurgence of systems sold to enterprise customers. After organizations around the world need to upgrade the system to be more modern.
In addition, the Metaverse or the real world. It is another factor that contributes to the growth of the chip manufacturing industry. Due to the wide variety of uses in Metaverse such as gaming, work, simulations. Massive processing chips are needed to connect, picture, sound, control, and immersive experiences.
The chipmaker Philadelphia Semiconductor is up 27.8 percent over the past year. In valuation, Bloomberg Consensus estimates its next 12-month PE forecast is just 20 times. Earnings grew at 37%. Therefore, investment options for the foreign chip industry are diversified, including those listed on major markets such as the US, Europe and Taiwan, through leading stocks such as Nvidia (NVDA US), ASML (ASML). US, ASML NA) and Taiwan Semiconductor (2330 TT, TSM US), or through the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH US), which diversifies into 25 chipmakers.
Mr. Phadon Suksawad, Head of Investment Strategy and Product Consulting Department, Asia Plus Securities, sees that in the first quarter of 2022, the big picture of the global economy Inflation will remain stable at a high level. Although the Fed is currently taking a more austere stance on financial measures. both the trend of accelerating the QE reduction and accelerating the interest rate hike And it will be a pressure factor for policymakers, both the central bank and the US government. Thus, going forward, government spending in the use of economic stimulus measures will have to slow down. In addition, private consumption will also slow down as a result of a high level of debt. This will result in investors experiencing volatility in this quarter.
“Our investment strategy in the first quarter of 2022 is to look at diversification to stock markets in some regions where valuations are not very tight. And there are also interesting investments such as in European and Japanese stock markets. including the Chinese stock market that the economy and the stock market are expected to have passed their lowest point. and is in the process of recovery. Including choosing to invest in alternative assets or Thematic in the group of Thai and Singapore REITs, the price is still laggard for US and European REITs and the Semiconductor group. to benefit from the transition of technology, both 5G and METAVERSE, as well as measures to support the use of energy and electric vehicles by governments around the world. has resulted in the demand Semiconductor which is an important part in almost all types of electrical equipment accelerated rapidly,” said Mr. Phadon.