Source: CITIC Construction Investment Author: CITIC Construction Investment Futures
The subject of the research report
1. Market overview
US inflation data exceeded expectations, and the market’s risk appetite decreased. This week, copper prices turned upside down.Shanghai CopperIt runs in the range of 63,500-61,900 yuan / ton, and the London copper runs in the range of 7,650-8,150 US dollars / ton. Domestic economic data for August released on Friday improved, and US retail sales data for August was also better than expected.
2. Market analysis
At a macro level,US August inflation data released at the start of the week exceeded expectations, and market expected inflation peaked and missed, indicating the Fed has a long way to go to fight inflation in the future. After the data was released, the US dollar index jumped, macro sentiment weakened, and expectations for a 75 basis point rate hike from the Federal Reserve increased, and the possibility of a 100 basis point rate hike was not even ruled out. . With the exception of the United States, high inflation in major economies such as the euro zone will undoubtedly hurt economic prospects.
In terms of employment,The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits last week was 213,000, below the expected 226,000, and the previous value was also revised to 218,000 from 222,000. Better jobs data further boosted the likelihood of a sharp rate hike in September.
Basically,LME inventories fluctuated at a low level, and Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks rose sharply for two consecutive days. The depletion of Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks may come to an end, and the support for copper prices may weaken. On the supply side, the Peruvian Mining Association said on Friday that the protests would jeopardize 30 percent of copper production. On the demand side, under the trend of slowing global economic growth, downstream demand will also be restrained to some extent.
From a market performance perspective,In the early stages, the market expected that inflation might have peaked, but after the release of inflation data this week, expectations fell short, and copper prices fell under pressure because of this. Judging from inflation data, the Fed still has a long way to go to fight inflation, and copper prices will remain under pressure under the tightening monetary policy.
The perspective strategy
in brief,The macro level is generally bearish, and the fundamental support may also weaken. Before the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision next week, copper prices may remain under pressure.
Implementation strategy:It is expected that the copper price will fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to place empty orders on rallies.
risk warning:Supply is lower than expected, downstream demand is higher than expected, and monetary policy is tightening less than expected
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