UK, US and Australia Announcing a historic security deal in the Indo-Pacific region which was seen It is an attempt to counter the power with China.
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Prof. Dr. Surachat Bamrungsuk, Lecturer at Department of International Relations, Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University The cooperation is seen as a reflection of the efforts of Western powers that are starting to take over Asia. and warned the leaders of the Thai government not to choose a side because “no state leader be a saint to us.”
from this agreement Australia will build its first nuclear-powered submarine using technology from the US
The deal, known as Aukus, will also cover artificial intelligence, cyber and quantum technologies.
Analysts say This is the three countries’ largest defense cooperation in decades.
in recent years democratic country in the west They expressed concerns about China’s growing military presence in the Indo-Pacific.
Joint Statement of US President Joe Biden, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the new partnership aim to “Promoting stability and prosperity” in the region
Chinese Embassy in Washington Reacted to the matter, accusing the three countries of being “Cold War-era ideology and biased”.
The deal required Australia to forfeit the A$50 billion (about $1.2 trillion) contract it signed with France in 2016 to build 12 submarines.
What is Aukus?
Analysts say Aukus is the largest security deal between the three nations since World War II.
Although the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia It has been a long-standing ally, but Aukus has deepened and formalized the defense cooperation of the three nations.
This agreement will focus on military capabilities. It is separate from the Five Eyes intelligence trading alliance, which also includes New Zealand and Canada.
In addition to the Australian submarine, Aukus will also exchange cyber, AI, quantum and other underwater technology capabilities.
The joint statement stated that “This is a historic opportunity for the three nations and their like-minded partners and allies. in protecting shared values and promoting stability and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region.”
The three leaders did not directly mention China, but said regional stability posed a challenge. “Extremely increased”
source of cooperation
China’s growing military capacity and toughness It has worried rival superpowers in recent years.
The Chinese government was accused of causing increased tensions in disputed territories such as the South China Sea
China has also invested heavily in the Coast Guard fleet in recent years. which analysts say In fact, it’s the Chinese naval fleet.
Many Western nations are worried about Chinese investment in Pacific islands. and trade sanctions imposed by China on countries such as Australia.
US and Australia This is called “Economic intimidation”
after news of cooperation spread A spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington said nations “should not create individual groups”.
New Zealand said it would ban Australian submarines from entering the country’s waters. This is consistent with current policy on nuclear powered submarines.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said New Zealand had not been contacted to join the deal.
Why a nuclear powered submarine?
These submarines are faster and harder to detect than traditional powered submarines. They can stay underwater for months. Travel farther and carry more weight
Analysts say The presence of nuclear-powered submarines in Australia is vital to US influence in the region, sharing US submarine technology. For the first time in 50 years, the US Only exchanged this technology with the UK.
Australia will become the seventh nation in the world to own a nuclear-powered submarine after the US, UK, France, China, India and Russia.
Australia’s contract with France has been hit with delays due to demands by the Australian government for parts to be sourced locally.
Australia has confirmed that There was no intention of acquiring nuclear weapons.
By Jonathan Beale, Defense Correspondent
The UK government has said this is a very important defense deal. This can be seen as the leaders of the UK, US and Australia appeared together via video announcing the partnership. It also underscores the growing importance of the Indo-Pacific region to the United States. and United Kingdom
The deal will affect two other countries, the first of which is France, which is a NATO ally. signed an agreement to build a fleet of diesel and electric powered submarines for the Royal Australian Navy By this time this agreement has ended.
The second country is China, although British officials are adamant that This new defense agreement is not a response to any country. The UK government stated that The agreement is concerned with promoting prosperity, security and stability in the region and supporting The agreement was openly expressed by Britain, the United States and Australia. There are common concerns about strengthening China’s military capabilities in the Indo-Pacific.
Prof. Surachart Bamrungsuk warns Thais not to choose sides
Prof. Dr. Surachat Bamrungsuk, Lecturer at Department of International Relations, Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University Said to BBC Thai that Aukus could be one of the consequences of Afghanistan’s breakup. because before Kabul fell The scene that people were shocked or excited about was the scene of the Taliban’s meeting with Chinese foreign ministers in Beijing. This is a sign that when the United States withdraws, China will take on the role.
“When this is the case Make Asia a point of movement and competition between superpowers. Asia will be the main area from now on. and the changes that will take place will affect Southeast Asia. or ASEAN as well.” Prof. Dr. Surachart Analyst
Even the geopolitical competition of the great power states It is not something new according to Ajarn Surachat’s opinion. However, if going back to the First World War era World War II and the cold war The center of the competition will be in Europe. But in the 21st century is the “Asian Century”.
As an observer of international political and security movements, Prof. Dr. Surachat finds that the obvious issue on the world stage is the geopolitical competition between the United States and China, which may have fluctuated somewhat during the Donald Trump administration. Trump’s rise to the US presidency (2016-2020) moves to erupt into a trade war instead of geopolitical competition.
The proposals made during the Trump era are The formation of a new alliance the scholar calls “Chaturamit” or The Quad, consisting of the United States, Australia, Japan and India, expanding from Asia-Pacific. to the Indo-Pacific It has an important goal to cope with China’s expanding influence in Asia. especially in Southeast Asia through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Cooperation of the Aukus Group on Submarines Will affect the procurement policy of Chinese submarines that the Thai government is working on or not? Ajarn Surachat said that He has always announced his stance against purchasing Thai submarines since 1995 when the Royal Thai Navy had plans to purchase submarines from Sweden. Before having to fold away at that time, he saw that submarines were not a necessity for the Royal Thai Navy. did not meet the strategic conditions of the Thai state Because the Thai state does not have conflicts in the high seas, which are the outer seas. But we may need a warship, which is a ship on the surface. to solve the problem of human trafficking pirates in the region
But 20 years later, other factors added. And after the 2014 coup, Thailand decided to buy a Chinese submarine. In the view of the students of security and military policy Deciding to buy a big weapon is as important as choosing a side. or showing the stance of being an alliance
“We decided to buy a submarine. Maybe with the conditions of closeness between the Bangkok government With the Beijing government after the 2014 coup, it means that the biggest coup was the reorientation of the strategic policy of the Thai state. By turning the central axis of the Thai state to connect with Beijing more closely,” commented Ajarn Surachat.
“I don’t mean that we have to stay close to the Washington government forever regardless of global change. But our key question is Leaders of the Thai government both at the military level and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs must know the lessons of Thai history. Thailand has no right to choose sides. or to stand with the power of any party until finally choosing a side It destroys the interests of the Thai state itself.”
The lesson this political science scholar has brought up reminds the Thai state that it is inevitable that Thailand declared itself to stand alongside Japan in World War II. But the only good luck that happened was that “Japan lost, Thailand did not lose because the United States tried to counter the pressure of the British not to let the Allies consider Thailand a losing state.”
Prof. Dr. Surachat views that Today’s problem is no different from the political and security policy of the Thai state in the past. But today, the current Thai state leaders may not see much of the historical aspects of their homes. or the history of the brothers in Asia
“We don’t have to be under Washington, just as we don’t have to be under Beijing… There is no superpower be a saint to us But if we believe that We will have symptoms like Field Marshal Plaek Phibunsongkhram in World War II. I believe that in the end I better stick to Japanese trains. if Japan wins Thailand will be great in Southeast Asia,” said Ajarn Surachat.
even by space status Thailand is important in international politics. But what appeared during US Vice President Kamala Harris’ visit to Southeast Asia? In Indonesia and Vietnam, Prof. Dr. Surachat raised questions about the Thai state’s ability to implement international political policies. because in the past the US leaders Always focus on Thailand Or today Thailand thinks that the best way is Thailand to act out of the spotlight of anyone. and believe that we can survive But at the same time, it means that no one cares about Thailand at all. So how will Thailand’s status in international politics be in the future?
“Future Thai leaders must take the issue of international politics as something they need to learn and understand. We might answer that because we can’t decide on our own. or he doesn’t give us up because we see that we are a worthless country in international politics That point was a scary point. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs must recognize that Thailand has never been in such a state of political worthlessness as it is today,” concluded Prof. Dr. Surachat.
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