“Oil prices in 2022” affected by factors from the Russian-Ukrainian war inflation The situation of COVID-19 until it can be called As a result, the price of oil in Thailand increased. as never seen before But this year, many sectors estimate that oil prices will weaken. Of many situations that have been resolved
Since Russia started to declare war on Ukraine In February 2022, in addition to creating panic for the whole world It also vibrates global crude oil prices as Russia is the second largest producer of crude oil in the world .Before the war, it was able to produce around 11 million barrels a day. Production has fallen to 9-10 million barrels per day, while world demand is around 100 million barrels.
While Russia produces less oil, OPEC Plus (OPEC+) or the group of oil exporting countries. which has a total production capacity of 40% of the world’s crude oil it did not increase production capacity to fill the missing Russian gaps As for Thailand itself, although it imports only a small amount of oil from Russia, only 3%, it is also indirectly affected.
Because when the quantity of goods is reduced, the main oil buyers from Russia, such as Europe, turn to buy oil in other regions such as the United States or the Middle East, which are the main oil markets of Thailand. inevitably the price of oil therefore rose enormously. In March this year Brent crude oil price It used to reach a maximum of 130 US dollars per barrel, while in Thailand in the same month, the price of oil rose to 2 baht per liter within a day!
but also considered good luck (Unfortunately) that the situation of COVID-19 As a result, the global economy is stagnant. So the demand for oil fell. As a result, the world crude oil price fell below 100 US dollars per barrel. But for Thailand itself, even though the world oil price has fallen. Yes, that will make the retail price of oil in Thailand drop accordingly
Because the Thai oil price structure includes about 37% oil cost, 51% taxes + reserves, 12% marketing costs, including the cost of gas stations. It makes Thai oil prices up and down difficult!
Compared to the previous year for all types of oil, the price of oil was found to have increased dramatically in a year, averaging 3-9 baht per litre, with the highest increase in casohol E85 at 23.74 per litre. baht in 2021 to 32.99 baht per liter, in 2022 an increase of 9.25 baht per liter, followed by diesel from 28.44 baht per liter in 2021 to 34.94 baht per liter in 2022, an increase of 6.5 baht per liter and gasoline from a liter to 38.56 baht per liter , 16,60 baht per liter. baht per litre, an increase of 3.6 baht per litre
Mr. said Autotapol Rerkpiboon, President and CEO, PTT Public Company Limited, that the energy price situation in 2023 is likely to improve. It is expected that the price of crude oil next year will move in the range of about 85-90 US dollars per barrel. which may affect the economy less than this year
Due to the current situation, the world’s largest oil producers and exporters (OPEC) are trying to reduce production. leading to higher oil prices Although the economic slowdown is causing less demand. So the price dropped at the same time. Therefore, it can be seen that both factors cause the world oil price to fluctuate/decrease. must follow closely
Mr. Dan Yerkin, Executive Vice President of S&P Global, predicts the oil price situation in 2023 that Brent crude oil prices will move around $90 per barrel. However, important risk factors, namely the decision of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed), China’s demand for oil, must be monitored. and Russian response from being constrained by the oil price ceiling
while China, the world’s largest oil consumer The consumption rate is approximately 15.7 million barrels per year. If the country can be fully opened it will become an important support to push water prices up again and could hit $121 per barrel. But if the economy falls into recession oil prices can drop to $70 a barrel.
although it is expected Perhaps this year’s oil price is not so aggressive as it is not considerate of anyone! like last year But I have to admit that the risk factors around that It’s an almost uncontrollable factor. What can be done would be a car user, using the road, which is obvious Start choosing to use the electric train more because it is worth more in the long term.
