The baht started the morning trading session at 36.74 baht/dollar, showing a decline from Friday’s closing rate of 36.47 baht/dollar due to the strengthening of the US dollar against major currencies. This movement aligns with the trends observed in the region. The return of the dollar’s strength came after the US Congress passed measures to resolve the issue of government shutdown, resulting in bond yields adjusting and increasing.
The depreciation of the baht this morning can be attributed to the House of Representatives’ timely action to resolve the shutdown, leading to a stronger dollar against other major currencies. Market experts predict that the baht’s exchange rate may fluctuate between 36.60 and 36.80 baht/dollar today. Additionally, market participants are recommended to keep an eye on the upcoming meeting between the Prime Minister and the Governor of the Bank of Thailand (BoT), as it may impact the currency’s movement. The latest available exchange rate was recorded at 36.76000 baht/dollar.
It is important to note the following factors influencing the currency market:
– The yen’s exchange rate stands at 149.64 yen/dollar, compared to the previous week’s rate of 148.95 yen/dollar.
– The euro’s exchange rate is at 1.0562 dollar/euro, down from the previous week’s rate of 1.0607 dollar/euro.
– The weighted average exchange rate between BoT banks for the baht/dollar is 36.536 baht/dollar.
– In the Prime Minister’s meeting with the Governor of the National Bank, discussions are expected to focus on resolving informal debt and revitalizing abandoned ports, such as the ‘Khlong Yai – Koh Loi’ project.
– The Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) has expressed concerns about the baht’s depreciation and its potential impact on Thailand’s trade deficit, energy imports, and the need for increased interest rates. Small and medium-sized businesses are particularly vulnerable to these effects.
– The baht has experienced a significant devaluation, falling nearly 5% in September, marking its weakest value in a year. Analysts predict that the baht may reach 37 baht/dollar in the short term of 1-2 months. However, they believe it will regain strength by the end of the year.
– Factors supporting these predictions include downward revisions of Thailand’s GDP growth rate by research offices, concerns about potential interest rate hikes by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), and growing challenges affecting the economy, as highlighted by the World Bank and TDRI.
To mitigate the impact on the economy, the Prime Minister and the Finance Minister have instructed the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) to develop strategies for addressing external debt issues and improving access to capital at fair interest rates. Efforts are also being made to bring small business loans under proper supervision. Additionally, in the US, interim budget measures have been passed by both the House of Representatives and the Senate, preventing a government shutdown and adding stability to the global economic landscape.
In other economic news, the US Department of Commerce has reported a 3.5% increase in the Main Price Index PCE, including food and energy categories, in August compared to the previous year. This aligns with analysts’ expectations. The Consumer Confidence Index in the US decreased from 69.5 in August to 68.1 in September, according to the University of Michigan’s survey results. Key upcoming economic figures from the US include the PMI/ISM indices for the manufacturing and service sectors, private sector employment figures, the unemployment rate for September, JOLTs reports on factory orders in August, and the number of weekly unemployment benefit applications.
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Baht market condition: opened at 36.74, weakening on dollar strength after US survives shutdown – keep an eye on BoT governor meeting PM.
InfoQuest – A money manager from the Bank of Ayudhya revealed that the baht opened the market this morning at 36.74 baht / dollar, depreciating from Friday night’s market closed at 36.47 baht / dollar, moving in the same direction as the region . This is because the dollar has returned to strengthening against major currencies After Congress passed measures to solve the problem of closing US agencies in time, leading to bond yields returning to adjust. The body has increased. “This morning the baht weakened significantly from last weekend. After the House of Representatives passed measures to correct the shutdown in time, the dollar strengthened against major currencies,” a money manager said. Estimated movement range of the baht today at 36.60 – 36.80 baht/dollar, following the Prime Minister’s case. The minister called on the Governor of the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to find out what issues would be discussed. The latest SPOT was at the level of 36.76000 baht/dollar.
* Important factors
– The yen is at 149.64 yen/dollar from last week’s level of 148.95 yen/dollar – The euro is at 1.0562 dollar/euro from last week’s level of 1.0607 dollar/euro – The baht/dollar exchange rate. Weighted average between BoT banks. At the level of 36.536 baht / dollar – The Prime Minister discussed with the Governor of the National Bank today. The Ministry of Finance was ordered to speed up the process of resolving informal debt starting on the first day of the introduction of debt suspension. Tens of thousands of farmers are flocking to register. ‘Mon Phon’ revealed plans to revive an abandoned port, starting with ‘Khlong Yai – Koh Loi’ – Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) that FTI has been following up on the price The baht is close because The baht is depreciating too quickly This will increase the risk of Thailand having a larger trade deficit because it has to import energy. Capital goods and raw materials from abroad In addition, Thai interest rates must be increased. Take care of the baht value so that it does not fluctuate. It will affect financial costs. of higher interest rates on loans Amid an economy that has not yet recovered, especially small and medium-sized businesses, which will be more affected – “” September fell by almost 5%, recording the weakest value in a year. It is also the most devalued in the region, surpassing the “yen” and the “yuan”. Analysts suggest it could reach 37 baht in the short term 1-2 months, but believe it will return to strength at the end of the year. o 3 supporting factors – Research offices are flocking to adjust this year’s “GDP” down to 3% after the economy grew less than expected Worries that the MPC will increase interest rates even affect further on demand. They estimate that the Thai economy will return to good growth next year from the government’s economic stimulus measures, fearing short term expansion. The long term is worrying. “World Bank” clearly states the economy Thailand’s growth continues to decline. Reflecting the growing challenges, “TDRI” notes that rising interest rates will affect business and consumption costs. Hopefully there are other measures to reduce the impact. Impact on the economy – The Prime Minister and the Finance Minister have ordered the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) to study ways of solving the external debt problem. integrated system Helping people to access capital at a fair interest rate. Especially bringing the small business loan business to the States level under supervision (Pico Finance) is a serious tool – the US House of Representatives passed the interim budget bill by a vote of 335 to 91 and then passed it. Let the Senate weigh in which is apparently the result The US Senate voted 88-9 to pass the budget bill and send it to President Joe Biden to be signed into law before the midnight deadline on Saturday, September 30. or around 11.01 Thai time on Sunday, October 1 – The US Department of Commerce revealed that the Main Price Index PCE, which includes food and energy categories, increased 3.5% in August year on year. This is in line with analysts’ expectations of 3.4% in July and on a monthly basis, the headline PCE index rose 0.4% in August, below analysts’ expectations of 0.5% Level 0.2% in July – Survey results from the University of Michigan noted that the US Consumer Confidence Index fell to 68.1 in September from 69.5 in August – Important US economic figures include the PMI/ISM index for the manufacturing and service sectors. Private sector employment figures from ADP Non-agricultural employment figures. and unemployment rate in September JOLTs report on factory orders in August. and the number of people applying for weekly unemployment benefits
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