[이코노믹리뷰=황대영 기자] It is expected that household loans will be further narrowed across the entire financial sector. This is because both the banking sector and non-bank financial institutions viewed the household loan outlook negatively in the fourth quarter.
According to the ‘Financial Institutions Loan Behavior Survey’ released by the Bank of Korea on the 18th, the lending attitude of domestic banks in the fourth quarter is expected to shift to easing for corporate loans and to continue to strengthen with respect to household loans.
For large corporations, expectations for improved operating performance and for SMEs, extended financial support measures for SMEs and small business owners are expected to ease lending attitudes. Loan attitude towards households is expected to continue to strengthen significantly from the previous quarter due to movements to strengthen household loan management.
In 4Q, corporate credit risk is expected to increase for both large companies and SMEs. Credit risk for large corporations is expected to increase slightly due to the recent increase in uncertainties in internal and external economic conditions. .
Corporate loan demand is expected to maintain an upward trend thanks to securing working capital and expanding facility investment for both large companies and SMEs. As for household loan demand, the demand for housing funds is expected to remain at the same level, while general fund demand is expected to decrease due to adjustments to the reduction of the credit loan limit within annual income and concerns over an increase in loan interest rates.
In 4Q, non-bank financial institutions’ lending attitude is expected to significantly strengthen in all industries. Mutual credit unions are expected to continue strengthening their lending attitude by strengthening household loan regulations and introducing credit limit regulations for the real estate and construction industries. Credit card companies, mutual savings banks, and life insurance companies are also expected to strengthen their lending attitudes due to the tightening of household loan regulations and the possibility of borrowers’ ability to repay debts due to rising interest rates.
During the same period, the credit risk of borrowers from non-bank financial institutions is expected to increase in all industries. The deterioration of profitability of small and medium-sized corporations and the self-employed due to the continued Corona 19, and the increase in interest burden due to an increase in interest rates were evaluated as major factors that increase the credit risk of borrowers.
Loan demand from non-bank financial institutions is expected to increase in 4Q. However, the rate of increase is expected to be limited due to concerns over interest rate hikes. By industry, loan demand from mutual savings banks, credit card companies, and mutual financial unions continues to increase, while life insurance companies are expected to remain flat.
A total of 203 financial institutions (17 domestic, 26 mutual savings banks, 8 credit card companies, 10 life insurance companies, and 142 mutual financial associations) from September 15th to 28th For those in charge of general affairs, the trend of financial institutions’ loan attitudes, credit risk and loan demand for the past 3 months and prospects for the next 3 months were investigated.