Global Markets Group Bank of Ayudhya (BAY) revealed its views on the baht’s direction this week. It tends to move in a frame of 33.50-34.10 baht/dollar compared to the previous week. The baht closed lower at 33.88 baht/dollar after trading in a range of 33.66-33.99 baht/dollar. The dollar strengthened against the euro and yen, which have low yields. But it was weaker against the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar, currencies linked high to commodity prices last week.
Meanwhile, crude oil prices hit a seven-year high, raising fears that inflation will continue to rise for a long time and could pressure the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates. The stock market fluctuates. Global bond yields soared. The US Senate Announcement to increase the borrowing power of the Ministry of Finance until December This allows the market to temporarily ease concerns about default. Non-farm payrolls increased by 194,000, compared to the 500,000 jobs expected by the market. Meanwhile, average hourly wages grew more than expected at a rate of 0.6% from the previous month and unemployment fell to 4.8%, the lowest since the epidemic. Foreign investors bought net 1,917 million baht in the Thai stock market, but Sold bonds for 1,452 million baht.
Global Markets Group views investors to pay attention to US inflation and retail sales data. meeting minutes Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) on September 21-22, 21, including comments from several Fed officials. Although non-farm payrolls increased less than expected in September. But brighter-than-expected wages and unemployment support forecasts that the Fed is close to withdrawing its planned stimulus package. In such conditions, BAY expects the dollar to gain momentum against most currencies. However, over the next several weeks, the market may move higher. Investors will follow President Joe’s decision. Biden to extend Fed chairmanship for Jerome Powell for another term? A replacement of the Fed chair would cause uncertainty in the direction of US monetary policy and the dollar could fall.
for domestic factors The consumer price index (CPI) in September 1964 increased 1.68% from the same period last year. Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI), excluding fresh food and energy, rose 0.19%.
BAY also agreed with official estimates that inflation in the current quarter will be higher due to production and transportation costs. Economic activity has begun to recover after the easing of disease control measures and the depreciation of the baht. The Ministry of Commerce has adjusted its average inflation forecast for this year to be in the range of 0.8-1.2%.
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