Will Russia invade Ukraine? Russia’s military presence on the Ukraine border has created war fears in Europe. The U.S. expects Russia to launch an offensive this month. The intelligence passed to Hussein provided information on US and NATO countries.
U.S. President Joe Biden told a news conference last week that he thought Russia might invade Ukraine. The U.S. on Sunday ordered the families of embassy officials in Ukraine to leave the country. The UK later issued a similar directive to embassy officials. With the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) announcing on Monday that it is deploying more troops to Eastern Europe, the international community is getting indications that war is imminent. Russia has said NATO’s military deployment is the problem and that it is NATO that is worsening the situation in Ukraine’s name.
Russia has repeatedly said it will not attack, but has a large military presence on Ukraine’s border. About one million U.S. troops are stationed on Ukraine’s three borders. Tanks, missiles and ammunition have already been deployed.
Unexpected military action
When the Soviet Union was formed in 1917, Ukraine was one of the first republics to become part of it. Third by size in the Soviet republics. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Ukraine became an independent country. Relations with Russia have deteriorated since the pro-Russian president was ousted in 2014. Russia has provided weapons and support, including missiles, to pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine later invaded, annexed Crimea and annexed Russia. By the time the ceasefire agreement was reached in Ukraine in 2015, 13,000 people, including soldiers, had been killed in the war. Russia’s military action in 2014 came as a surprise. U.S. intelligence agencies have warned that a similar intrusion could occur later this month.
news/just-in/images/2022/25/ukraine-military.jpg"/>
Ukraine, with a population of 4.4 million, shares a 1,200-mile border with Russia. Ukraine has close social and cultural ties with Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently announced that Ukraine and Russia are one country. Putin’s dream is to bring Russia back to the glory of the Soviet era.
Tensions equivalent to the Cuban Missile Crisis
Ukraine is not currently a member of NATO. Russia wants Ukraine to never join NATO. Russia has accused NATO’s military presence in Eastern Europe of violating an agreement reached with Western powers during the collapse of the Soviet Union. President Putin has argued that NATO’s presence in their border countries poses a serious threat to Russia.
news/just-in/images/2021/8/22/putin-1248.jpg"/>
Russia wants assurances that Ukraine will not join NATO. At the same time, NATO must withdraw from the former communist countries of Eastern Europe and the Baltic region. Russia and the United States have held four official talks on the issue this month alone, but to no avail. Russia has not backed down from its military presence on the Ukraine border. NATO Secretary-General warns that Putin will launch an offensive soon. The US confirms this possibility. Belarus, another former Soviet republic close to Ukraine, is Russia’s closest ally. Russia’s military exercise on their border is ongoing.
Russia’s deputy foreign minister has said that the situation in Ukraine is tense, similar to the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. During the Cold War in 1962, the US and the Soviet Union were on the verge of a nuclear war. The crisis was triggered by the US’s missile base on the Cuban coast. Russia’s dissatisfaction with the current growing NATO-US military presence in Eastern European countries. Russia’s main complaint is that Ukraine is not a member of NATO, but other NATO countries supply arms to it. Putin’s question is whether he should stand by and watch the flow of weapons into the border country of Ukraine.
news/just-in/images/2021/15/ukraine-russia-war-tunnel.jpg"/>
Putin also called for an end to NATO military presence in Poland, a NATO member state, and in the Baltic republics of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. The situation in Eastern Europe changed after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s. Since 1997, 14 countries in Eastern Europe that had been Soviet slums have joined NATO. Russia says NATO missile bases in these countries along the Russian border pose a major threat to it. Crimea was annexed by Ukraine in 2014, arguing that the territory was historically claimed by Russia. Putin also accuses Ukraine’s ruling leaders of pursuing an anti – Russian plan.
What is the US position?
The U.S., which has returned from Afghanistan empty-handed after 20 years of occupation, is no longer interested in any further military action. The role of the US in NATO is also unclear. Former President Trump’s policy was that NATO was obsolete. He strongly opposed US military aid to Europe. However, the Biden administration plans to send more U.S. troops and weapons to Eastern Europe.
news/just-in/images/2022/25/ukraine-military-4.jpg"/>
Until recently, the US has taken the position that Ukraine (as a non-NATO member) is not particularly liable there. Joe Biden said in December that the US would not intervene if Russia carried out a minor offensive there. The US policy is to impose sanctions on Russia rather than military action. Biden made it clear that he would not intervene militarily without the support of all members of the European Union and NATO. The EU leadership, including France, believes that the issue should not be settled between Russia and the US. EU foreign policy chief Joseph Borrell has said that Europeans should be present when discussing security in Europe, and that Russia’s agenda should not be decided by Russia. This means that the European Union wants to deal with the issue directly.
Russia currently accounts for about 40 percent of the 27 member states of the European Union. Fuel prices in Europe have soared since imports fell last year. Most of the gas pipelines from Russia reach Europe via Ukraine. Being a war zone there is not good for Europe. The other is the position of Germany. Germany has no interest in quarreling with Russia. The gas pipeline from Russia was recently completed. Gas supply has not started. The Prime Minister of Hungary, a NATO member state close to Ukraine, is due to meet with Putin next week to discuss the development of a nuclear power plant. Good Russian relations are in the economic interest of European countries. The Cold War was a disaster. With this in mind, the Prime Minister of Hungary said that time was over.
Russia’s interest in achieving a strategic goal of eliminating NATO influence in Eastern Europe is behind Ukraine’s military preparations. It does not appear that NATO or the US will be prepared to go ahead, completely ignoring Russia’s interest in the issue.
English Summary: Is Russia Heading towards a War Against Ukraine? What is US Strategy?
