The theme of today’s report is “World, ASE, and the sky-high price of funds to mature process wafer foundry, packaging and testing.”
Wanbao Investment Gu Cai Mingzhang emphasized that Taiwan stocks intensively announced the second-quarter and half-year financial reports of listed companies in the first half of August. The market squatted and jumped, and the trading volume shrank, but the last month’s line was back pressured by 17,600 points. On the surface, the deviation of volume and price is actually a phenomenon of stable bargaining chips. The increase and decrease in financing amount has been gradually reduced since the recent daily increase and decrease, which is confirmed.
When Taiwan stocks’ chips are stable, after all the semi-annual reports of individual stocks were announced on August 15, stocks with low price-to-earnings ratios, low valuations, and good third-quarter profit prospects will become the choice in the second half of August. Stock focus.
In the same panel, Double Tiger AUO (2409-TW) and Innolux (3481-TW) both made a huge profit of more than RMB 2 in the second quarter and more than RMB 3 in the first half of the year. Why did Innolux’s stock price perform better after its earnings report? On Wednesday, Innolux’s closing price limit should be due to two reasons. Based on the estimated EPS of 5 yuan for the whole year, the P/E ratio of the Panel Double Tiger is only 4 times, but the price of Innolux is 2 yuan or 10% lower than AUO, which is a low price. Incentives attract buying. Secondly, when AUO released its semi-annual report last week, the IC design community of electronics stocks was trending strong. The market generally believed that the second half of the panel was not as good as the first half of the year. However, IC design continued to grow in the second half of the year. Therefore, AUO was crowded out by IC design funds. .
However, IC designs generally fell on Wednesday, and there was a lot of negative news. The United Kingdom may veto Nvidia and Arm on the grounds of national security. Huida’s competitor AMD’s stock price rose for 5 consecutive days and hit a record high. It seems that the news is true. ) Under the impact, the application of RISC-V will be limited. Andescore’s EPS in the first quarter was only 0.5 yuan, and the accumulated revenue in the first half of the year was 358 million yuan, with an average of only 60 million yuan per month. The annual EPS is estimated at 4.5 yuan, but the stock price Up to more than 500 yuan.
Chinese officials are strictly investigating the speculation of auto chip hoarding. The prices of various types of chips have generally risen by 5 times. The spread of shortages will lead to a reduction of 3 to 4 million vehicles in China this year. Related car chips, especially MCU microcontrollers, are gaining the most. Even for lithium battery manufacturers, the stock price of Zhaoyi Innovation, an index stock, has plummeted by 20% recently. The Taiwanese MCU’s surge this week has not been corrected. Even if the semi-annual report is good, the stock price may reflect it, not necessarily the electronic stocks in the second half of August. Strong stocks.
Huawei’s HiSilicon’s first OLED driver chip is scheduled to be sampled at the end of this year and will be mass-produced next year. It has its own Huawei products. The HiSilicon’s driver chip is compatible with Taiwan’s Novatek (3034-TW) and Tianyu (4961-TW). ), Duntai (3545-TW) has gradually increased the competitive pressure.
In the past, squeezed and suppressed by South Korean manufacturers, Huawei and BOE mainland manufacturers could only use Novatek. In the future, HiSilicon adopts 40nm process to produce OLED driver ICs. This part of the United States is out of control. The customers of HiSilicon driver chips are not only Huawei, BOE, Glory will gradually become Haisi’s outlet. Novatek is the world’s largest driver IC manufacturer. Its strong competitiveness should be able to withstand the test. However, Tianyu and Duntai this year’s EPS are estimated at 30 and 33 yuan respectively. Since the low point last year, their stock prices have risen by 14 times and 10 times respectively. The grand occasion will not be over next year.
Wanbao Investment Gu Cai Mingzhang emphasized that considering the factors of low valuation, after the release of the semi-annual report of electronic stocks, IC designs with high valuations will be reorganized. In addition to panels, semiconductor foundry and packaging and testing are also undervalued. Ethnic group is expected to become the new mainstream of electronic stocks.
The world with mature processes (5347-TW) has EPS 1.59 yuan in the second quarter, an increase of 18% from 1.35 yuan in the first quarter, but on Wednesday it gapped the daily limit and set a new high price, because the gross profit margin in the third quarter was estimated by The 40.89% in the second quarter will rise to 44~46%, which is much better than TSMC’s (2330-TW) gross profit margin in the third quarter, which is estimated to be the same 50% in the second quarter. TSMC’s production process has huge basic expenditures and erodes its gross margin. UMC (2303-TW) and the world, which have mature processes, will increase its gross margin in the second half of the year. This is a new stock selection for good cats as long as they can catch mice regardless of black or white cats. Thinking will dominate the board.
SMIC, which has an advanced 12-inch wafer foundry in mainland stocks, has seen its share price rise slightly by 5% this year, but Hua Hong Semiconductor, which has a mature 8-inch wafer process, has risen by 30%, and its performance has won. Similarly, UMC’s share price has risen 32% this year, surpassing TSMC’s 13%. The main background is that the market believes that the global stock market has risen several times since the low point of the epidemic last year. Stocks no longer chase long-term competitiveness, but achievable gross profit margin and EPS growth in the short and medium term.
Wanbao Investment Gu Cai Mingzhang emphasized that the current focus of the market is on the packaging and testing downstream of the foundry. Most of the packaging and testing EPS continued to grow in the third quarter, but the P/E ratio is approachable. ASE Investment Control (3711-TW) estimates that the whole year Earning a share capital, the price-to-earnings ratio is 13 times and the price-to-earnings ratio is only half that of the IC design group.
Qibang (6147-TW), the world’s largest LCD driver IC package, including Sitronix (8016-TW), Novatek, BOE, and South Korea’s LGD are all major customers. In the second quarter, EPS was 2.15 yuan, an increase of 19% in the first half of the year. EPS is RMB 3.96, which is estimated at RMB 8 for the whole year, but the P/E ratio is only less than 10 times. The gross profit margin in the second quarter is 32.8%, which is the highest since the seventh quarter, and the demand is booming. Qibang will raise prices again in the third quarter, and revenue and profit will also write new highs. However, Qibang’s stock price has only risen 24% this year, with a low valuation and a low base period. KYEC (2449-TW) is estimated to be 4 yuan in EPS this year, and the P/E ratio is estimated to be 12 times. The stock price has increased by 38% this year, which is also in line with the low valuation of the packaging and testing.
Wanbao Investment Gu Cai Mingzhang emphasized that for all ethnic groups that make a big profit in the second half of the year, the low valuation condition is to use the large market volume to shrink the best time to cut. , Innolux’s trading volume was 780,000, AUO was 720,000, and Evergreen (2603-TW) was 300,000.
Container Sanxiong estimates a total profit of 200 billion yuan in the first half of the year, which is three times that of Panel Shuanghu’s 64 billion yuan. If Panel Shuanghu will reflect the financial report, it will be reflected sooner or later after the consolidation of this time. Global container ships have recently released financial reports and raised their annual financial forecasts. Japan’s Merchant Marine Mitsui has raised its annual financial forecasts for two consecutive times. Its revenue has increased by 2%, but its net profit has increased by 60%, indicating that the profit of container ships is too amazing. Note that the fiscal year of Japanese companies is from April 1st to the end of March of the following year, suggesting that MOL believes that the container freight rate in the first quarter of next year is still bullish, so it will significantly increase this year’s earnings target for the second time. MOL’s share price has soared 106% this year. , In the Tokyo stock market is one of the top stocks.
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