Chancellor Scholz rebuffed his request for ammunition deliveries in Brazil. Instead, President Lula wants to mediate together with China in the Ukraine war. What does that mean.
The most important things at a glance
It didn’t go according to plan. Chancellor Olaf Scholz is currently visiting Brazil. Together with President Lula da Silva, he appeared in front of the press that night after a four-hour conversation. But when it came to the Ukraine war, Lula got the chancellor in trouble.
Scholz emphasized that there was a clear common stance that both countries condemned the Russian attack. But Lula didn’t seem so clear on the issue. It still has to be found out who is to blame for this war. And further: “Wars happen today because there is no negotiation, because there is no one to sit down together at the table.”
His suggestion: Brazil could mediate in the war together with China. The Chinese government had just blamed the United States for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The backgrounds:
How is Brazil positioned in the Ukraine war?
According to Lula, Brazil considers itself a “land of peace”. Chancellor Scholz has now also learned what that means: Lula clearly refused his request to deliver tank ammunition to Ukraine: “Brazil has no interest in passing on the ammunition so that it can be used in the war between Ukraine and Russia,” said he.
Because, and this is the crux of the matter: For Lula, the question of guilt in the Ukraine war is by no means clear. Rather, he takes the view that both parties are responsible for the dispute. “I think Russia made the classic mistake of invading another country’s territory,” he said. “But I still think, ‘If one doesn’t want to, two don’t fight.'”
According to Lula, neither side is interested in a peaceful end. Like other non-Western countries before it, Brazil is also trying to adopt a neutral position: on the one hand it is looking for good relations with the EU and the USA, but also with China and Russia.
Lula’s statements apparently caused confusion for Scholz. The “Welt” reported that the chancellor called his foreign policy adviser Jens Plötner during the press conference – a rather unusual step. What the two discussed on the open stage remains unclear.
What is the meaning of Lula’s words?
Brazil is currently the focus – together with the other so-called BRICS countries. These are next to BBrazil and RRussia yet Ifeel China and SSouth Africa – five countries outside the West that are politically and economically particularly influential and work together in different constellations. Excluding Russia, they are important players in the international community – and their word carries corresponding weight in the Ukraine war.
And there seems to be something going on at the moment. The Chinese government was unusually clear on Monday. “The United States are the ones who triggered the Ukraine crisis,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning told the press in Beijing. They are also “the biggest factor fueling the crisis”. So far, China has refrained from directly assigning blame.
Ning was responding to an accusation by the US that Chinese companies were supporting the Russian side. And South Africa has recently moved from a neutral position towards the Russian perspective.
Brazil is not so clear: In the press conference, Lula said he was undecided, but in the joint final statement with Scholz, both countries clearly condemned Russia’s invasion. Nevertheless: Brazil will probably not take sides. “We will have relationships with everyone,” Lula announced in his inaugural address on January 1, 2023.
What is behind the mediation plans with China?
To answer that question, it’s worth looking at Lula’s political agenda. The Brazilian President is very clear on how he sees the future order of the world: “based on dialogue, multilateralism and multipolarity”. Big words that mean when broken down: There are no longer the really big decision-makers who divide the world into their spheres of influence. But many different influential actors. And underneath Lula also sees: Brazil.
