Wanbao Investment Gu Wang Rongxu said that Biden nominated Ball for re-election as the chairman of the Fed. The market expects that the Fed’s attitude may raise interest rates earlier. U.S. stocks have fluctuated and the K-line of the Taiwan stock market has also appeared black, but the pullback is very limited. Even for technology stocks that are sensitive to interest rates, the Nasdaq Index has risen 2.2% since November, and Philadelphia Semiconductor has grown by 12.1/%. In contrast, the Dow Jones Index, which is dominated by blue chip stocks such as transmission and finance, still has negative returns.
This also echoes my analysis in the October column. After the Fed announced in November that the QE exits, technology stocks will outperform the pass-through stocks, and the US dollar is strong, and raw materials are easy to fall and hard to rise. Recently, the US dollar has hit a new high in a year and a half. US West Texas light crude oil fell from US$85 to US$78 per barrel.
Wanbao Investment Gu Wang Rongxu emphasized that the positive impact of the economic rebound on technology stocks is far greater than interest rates, so the mainstream of electronics has not changed due to Bauer’s re-election. Electronics only rose in rounds. From the original local Meta Universe’s HTC and Via, Starlink (3491-TW) and Tayang (2314-TW) of the Starlink Project rose more and more, and the funds were rotated to ignite DRAM, silicon wafers and ABF. Carrier boards and other ethnic groups reflect the outlook for next year’s performance.
DRAM next year’s next-generation product DDR5 will catch up with the Metaverse business opportunity. Micron has seen a strong rise, which will also drive the rebound of domestic DRAM stocks such as Nanya, Winbond, and Macronix. But even more explosive is the IC design of Mota (6138-TW). The new product DDR5 power management IC will be shipped in high volume next year. It is a hidden version of the meta universe concept stock. 9 yuan, it is estimated that this year will be 12 yuan, and next year will be 15-18 yuan. The P/E ratio is still relatively underestimated in IC design, and the market outlook is promising.
Silicon wafers and ABF substrates are in short supply due to the large expansion of global fabs. There are opportunities for price increases from the end of the year to the first quarter of next year, and the increase is expected to reach double-digit growth, contributing to a major leap in performance next year. Taishengke (3532-TW) has a relatively high proportion of spot stocks, and it will benefit most directly from price increases. 8-inch silicon wafers are even more scarce than 12-inch silicon wafers. The price of monocrystalline (6182-TW), which specializes in small and medium-sized silicon wafers, is also rising. It is estimated that monocrystalline has an EPS of 2 yuan this year and has a chance to double its profit next year.
The profits of ABF carrier boards have also risen. For example, Xinxing (3037-TW) EPS is estimated to be 8 yuan this year and 10-12 yuan next year. No wonder it can’t stop rising to 200 yuan.
Stock picks at the end of the year should not only look at the profit this year. The key to earning more than this year next year is the main reason why many stock markets with very high profits this year give very low P/E ratios. Aviation stocks China Airlines (2610-TW) and Evergreen Airlines (2618-TW) are the best examples. The EPS in the third quarter was 0.5 yuan and 0.3 yuan respectively. It is estimated that this year will be 1.3 yuan and 0.7 yuan respectively, but the stock price has risen to nearly 30 yuan. It seems that the price-to-earnings ratio is very high, but next year, the global vaccine penetration rate will be With the gradual improvement, the gradual opening of border controls in various countries has become a trend, and air passenger traffic will increase significantly compared with this year. Therefore, the aviation duo will challenge 3 yuan for EPS next year. However, the passenger traffic of Evergreen Airlines is relatively high. Therefore, although China Airlines, which is the main cargo company, has higher EPS this year than Evergreen Airlines, it is expected to overtake China Airlines in profit next year. There is a high chance of a golden cross in the stock price in the future.
In addition, when it comes to the dream market, whose dream is bigger than the new drug? The top gainer in Taiwan stocks in November was not Metaverse or aviation stocks, but the new drug stock Huayao (6446-TW), which has risen by 100% since November because of its use for adult polycythemia vera (PV for short). New drug) After obtaining the drug certificate in Europe in 2019, it has now also obtained the permission to enter the U.S. market, and the market opportunity is tens of billions.
Another new drug stock company Heyi (4743-TW), a new drug for treating diabetic wound healing, is also striving for access to the two major markets in the United States and China. Because this drug has reached the standard in the third phase of clinical trials in many countries, and has obtained the Taiwanese medicine certificate , There is no problem of failing to solve the blindness, only the question of when to gain access to the US-China market.
Wanbao Investment Gu Wang Rongxu pointed out that the United States and China are huge markets that are 10 or even a hundred times larger than Taiwan, and there are quite a lot of diabetes patients. The cost-effectiveness of the new Heyi drug is much higher than that of the same type of drugs already on the market. The US and China markets The access of Heyi is a powerful supplement to performance. At the beginning of November, the column reminded readers that there are certain foreign investors who are silently eating the bargaining chip, even the investment letter that rarely buys new drug stocks in the past also entered the market this week. With the expectation that there will be a reply from the medicine certificate, the market outlook is worth tracking.
Limited space, there are more potential stocks analysis, welcome to join the Wang Rongxu fan group for free now, you can get more information sharing.
Wang Rongxu, Chief Investor, LINE Fan Group
https://line.me/ti/p/@marbo888
YouTube Channel of Wang Rongxu, Chief Investor
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCi-2okN64tcrY5F09E2pb1Q
Wang Rongxu FB Fan Group, Chief Investor
http://bit.ly/2KGYiSg
Wang Rongxu, Chief Investor, Telegram Fan Group
https://t.me/marbo888
Individual securities recommended by the company for analysis
No improper financial interest relationship Past performance does not guarantee future profit
Investors should make independent judgments and prudential assessments and take their own investment risks
