Original title: China Mobile A shares premium 52.25% issuance of AH shares premium rateChina Telecomhalf
On December 22, China Mobile opened an online subscription with the subscription code “730941” and the issue price was 57.58 yuan per share, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 12.02 times. The single account subscription limit is 253,000 shares, and the top grid subscription requires a market value of 2.53 million yuan.
China Mobile will issue 845.7 million shares this time, accounting for approximately 3.97% of the total share capital after the issuance before the over-allotment option is exercised; if the over-allotment option is exercised in full, the total number of issued shares will be expanded to approximately 973 million shares, accounting for the issuance After 4.53% of the total equity.
If the issuance is successful, before the over-allotment option is exercised, China Mobile will raise a total of 48.695 billion yuan; if the over-allotment option is exercised in full, it is expected to raise a total of 55.99 billion yuan, which will be the largest A-share IPO in the past decade Fundraising record.
As of the close of trading on December 22, the share price of H-share China Mobile was at 46.3 Hong Kong dollars per share, with a total market value of 948.015 billion Hong Kong dollars. In terms of A shares, based on the issue price of 57.58 yuan per share, China Mobile’s total market value will reach 1.18 trillion yuan.
However, some investors have noticed that China Mobile’s current issue price is more than 50% premium to Hong Kong stocks. Prior to this, China Telecom, which returned to A in August, suffered a break. Will China Mobile also break after its listing? Is it worth buying?
The premium rate of AH shares is half of China Telecom
It is understood that in August this year, China Telecom landed in A shares and launched the green shoe mechanism to “escort” the stock price. The controlling shareholder of the company also announced that it would increase its holdings by no less than 4 billion yuan. However, after China Telecom went public, the trend has not been satisfactory, and the stock price has not been able to exceed the issue price.
In terms of valuation, China Mobile’s issuance model and pricing logic are in line with China Telecom’s,China UnicomApproaching, also activated the green shoe mechanism. At the same time, the premium rate of China Mobile’s A shares over H shares is in the middle of the three.
Judging from the premium rate of AH shares, a reporter from 21st Century Business Herald found that China Mobile’s closing price of H shares on the 22nd was 46.3 Hong Kong dollars, which is approximately RMB 37.82 based on the latest exchange rate. This means that the issuance price of 57.58 yuan is a premium of about 52.25% over the share price of H shares.
China Mobile’s A shares have a higher premium rate than H shares. Is it necessary for investors to subscribe for more expensive A shares?
It is reported that AH-share premiums often appear in companies that are both listed on A-shares and H-shares. Most of the A-shares of these two listed companies are higher than H-shares, and there is a certain degree of premium.
Some brokerages said that the premium of AH shares is mainly due to the fact that mainland investors have certain restrictions on investing in H shares. The thresholds for opening Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect are relatively high. As a result, more funds can only be found in A-shares, and A-shares There is also a premium factor in itself.
Wind data shows that the Hang Seng Stock Connect AH stock premium index has reached 148.53. This also reflects that the premium level of AH shares is at a historical high, and the phenomenon of high premiums is more common.
However, the reporter noticed that the premium rate of China Mobile’s A shares over H shares is at an intermediate level among the three major operators. At present, the premium of China Telecom’s A-share price to H-share stock price is 108.49%, while the premium of China Unicom’s AH share is 22.22%.
According to industry insiders, the premium rate of China Mobile’s A-share issue price is lower than the average level of China Telecom and China Unicom, which has certain advantages.
In addition, China Mobile has been paying high dividends since its listing, with cumulative dividends exceeding HK$1 trillion. In the past three years, the company’s dividend payout rate has exceeded 50%, and the dividend rate in 2020 will reach 7.44%, and the annual cash dividend will exceed 57 billion yuan.
Many investors who have subscribed to China Mobile told our reporter that China Mobile has a strong certainty and continues to be optimistic about its future development. It is unlikely to make a lot of money after winning the lot. “But as long as it wins the lottery, it will definitely get a bite.” Meat”.
In addition to the AH share premium rate, China Mobile’s current price-earnings ratio is lower than the other two major operators.
Wind data shows that China Telecom’s A stock market earnings ratio is 19.13 times, H stock earnings ratio is 9.45 times; China Unicom A stock market earnings ratio is 22.12 times, H stock market earnings ratio is 7.89 times; China Mobile H stock market earnings ratio is 7.39 times.
The lower price-earnings ratio of comparable companies is also one of the reasons why investors are optimistic. Generally speaking, a low price-to-earning ratio means that individual stocks have more room to rise in the future, or that the investment return period is shorter, investment risks are less, and the investment value of stocks is greater.
From the perspective of profitability, China Mobile’s revenue and net profit in the first three quarters of this year have exceeded the sum of the other two major operators, and the return on net assets has also ranked first among domestic operators.
Financial data shows that in the first three quarters of this year, China Mobile’s revenue was 648.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%; net profit attributable to the parent was 87.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%. Among them, revenue from communications services was 572.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%.
5G brings more imagination
Analysts said that the fundamentals of business operations and market confidence are the key to determining whether stock prices will break. And 5G also gives more imagination to the future development of operators such as China Mobile.
As of the end of September this year, China Mobile’s total number of customers was approximately 956 million, with a net increase of 10.2 million mobile customers in the third quarter; 331 million 5G package customers and 160 million 5G network customers. In terms of wired broadband, the company has a total of 235 million customers.
In this listing, China Mobile intends to use the raised funds for 5G boutique network construction projects, cloud resource new infrastructure construction projects, gigabit smart home construction projects, smart middle-station construction projects, new generation information technology research and development, and digital intelligence ecological construction. project.
Among them, 28 billion yuan is planned to be used for the 5G boutique network construction project. The goal of the project is to “build no less than 500,000 5G base stations.” Its 5G SA core network and network cloud resource pool can satisfy 350 million 5G SA users Business needs and needs of 20 million industry users.
Regarding the future development prospects of the three major operators, Major General Ding, an observer of Sankei and the founder of Nail Technology, told this reporter that in the 5G era, the opportunities and challenges are basically similar, but China Mobile has more advantages due to funding, user resources, and operational efficiency. .
Major General Ding believes that, from the perspective of upstream and downstream, with the continuous expansion of operators’ 5G network coverage, 5G mobile phones will become popular in the next 2-3 years, and the 5G services of operators and Internet companies will also be optimized in the network and enriched in terminals. On the basis of this, there is substantial development. At the same time, the supporting role of 5G in social production will be further highlighted.
Orient Wealth Securities analyst Wang Likang also stated in the research report that the future growth of domestic telecom operators’ mobile communications services needs to pay attention to the increase in the number of new connections.ChangheThe new direction of traffic growth.
It is understood that 2019 is the first year of 5G commercialization in my country, and the number of 5G base stations and the number of 5G users are in their infancy. Beginning in 2020, the country has started the large-scale construction of 5G base stations, and operators have also increased the promotion of 5G packages.
According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, as of the end of October this year, the total number of mobile phone users of the three operators was 1.641 billion, and the number of 5G mobile phone terminal connections reached 471 million, a net increase of 273 million over 2020, and the penetration rate increased to 28.7%.
On December 20, the three major operators released the operating data for November. Among them, the number of 5G package users of China Telecom and China Unicom has increased, and China Mobile has a net increase of -323,000 5G package users that month, and the number of 5G package customers has accumulated to 374 million.
For the increase of 5G commercial penetration rate, the policy level also gives guidance.
In July this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other ten departments clearly stated that by 2023, there will be more than 18 5G base stations per 10,000 people in China, the penetration rate of 5G individual users will exceed 40%, and the number of users will exceed 560 million. In November, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology once again issued a document stating that by 2025, there will be 26 5G base stations per 10,000 people in the country, and the 5G user penetration rate will increase to 56%.
The Guotai Junan research report pointed out that the increase in the proportion of 5G users is expected to increase the ARPU of mobile services, and the mobile ARPU will continue to improve in the fourth quarter of 2021. Large-scale investment also means that China Mobile is likely to remain the leader in the future.
In addition to 5G, the layout of other projects that China Mobile plans to raise is also quite interesting. Recently, China Mobile has repeatedly emphasized computing power network and smart middle-station business at its global partner conference. Some people in the communications industry pointed out that these projects and 5G together form China Mobile’s integrated ecosystem of “cloud-pipe-end-station-side”.
It is worth mentioning that China Mobile’s subscription has inspired related industries such as A-share 5G and communication equipment.
On December 22, the 5G sector opened higher, and the 5G index rose by more than 0.78% throughout the day, setting a new high for the year.
(Author: Lei Chen Editor: Zhu Yimin)
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