China’s Economic Resilience and Challenges: Navigating Wave-like Development and Torturous Progress

The Road to Economic Recovery in China

The Political Bureau’s Strategic View

The recent Political Bureau meeting on July 24 emphasized the need for a deep understanding of the upcoming economic recovery process following the stabilization of epidemic prevention and control. The meeting noted that this recovery will be characterized by wave-like development and torturous progress, requiring a preparedness to face challenges and uncertainties.

China’s Economic Progress

  • Significant advancements have been witnessed in China’s economy, with achievements such as the successful commercialization of domestic large aircraft and trial voyages of domestic cruise ships.
  • Foreign trade is also showing promising signs, with the successful sailing abroad of the “three new things” and the production of over 20 million units of new energy vehicles.
  • Despite challenges from restructuring the global industrial and supply chain, China, as the world’s largest manufacturing country, has shown an increasing momentum.

Challenges and Resilience

While the economy and society have largely returned to normal operations, the overall situation is improving vertically while poor results are observed horizontally. In response to the significant impact of the epidemic, China’s economy has shown resilience and potential, achieving an average annual growth rate of about 4.5% over the past three years, outperforming the world average.

Global Perspective

The world economy is experiencing a period of upheaval and transition, with major economies facing challenges such as inflation, weak demand, and sluggish recovery. In contrast, China’s GDP grew by 5.2% year on year in the first three quarters of the year, demonstrating one of the best performances among major economies.

Addressing Challenges

While the impact of the epidemic has presented challenges, particularly in areas such as consumption indicators and corporate confidence, China’s economy has a solid foundation to cope with risks and challenges, with promising prospects for industrial upgrading and development.

Pragmatic Response Measures

  • Frequent and effective response measures have been implemented, including preferential policies targeting bulk consumption, support for domestic demand potential, and efforts to stabilize growth in key industries.
  • Market expectations are improving, and the vitality of the economy is on the rise, indicating a positive trajectory for recovery and growth.

Looking Ahead

China’s economy is poised to overcome its challenges and continue to move forward, with ongoing progress in industrial areas such as smartphones and artificial intelligence. Despite the growing pains and difficulties, the economy is expected to thrive amidst the storm.

The recent insights from the Political Bureau meeting underscore the proactive approach and resilience of China’s economic recovery, showcasing a promising path to sustained growth.

“People’s Daily” (Page 01, November 14, 2023)

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(Editors: Yang Guangyu, Hu Yongqiu)

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The Political Bureau meeting held on July 24 noted: “After the epidemic prevention and control stabilizes, economic recovery will be a process of wave-like development and torturous progress.”

In order to deeply understand this strategic view, on the one hand, we must see that development and promotion are the mainstream, and on the other hand, we must be prepared to deal with waves and twists and turns.

Since the beginning of this year, the economy has generally improved and is improving, and high-quality development has been well advanced.

Domestic large aircraft are commercially available, domestic cruise ships are on trial voyages, foreign trade “three new things” are sailing abroad, and the cumulative production of new energy vehicles has exceeded 20 million units… Actively respond to challenges from restructuring the global industrial chain and the supply chain, the largest manufacturing country is increasing with momentum.

The summer movie box office reached a record high, the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday market was booming, and the annual rapid distribution volume reached 100 billion pieces 39 days earlier than the previous year. The economy and society have fully returned to normal operations, and demand from the world’s largest and most potential market has been gradually released.

Supply increased, demand rose, and employment prices were generally stable. Vertically, the situation is improving, but horizontally, the results are also poor.

Three years after the epidemic, China’s economy has gone through great challenges, achieving an average annual growth rate of about 4.5%, significantly higher than the world average, and performing well among the world’s major economies.

Entering the “post-epidemic period”, the world economy is struggling to recover and its growth rate has slowed significantly. In contrast, my country’s GDP grew 5.2% year on year in the first three quarters, including 4.9% in the third quarter. Both indicators were among the best among major economies, and the overall economic recovery has become more obvious

A performance rich in “golden content” is enough to dispel “pessimism” and respond to “neglect”. Facts have fully proven that after three years of repeated effects of the epidemic, the Chinese economy still has enormous resilience and development potential, and its long-term positive fundamentals have not changed.

In order to understand China’s economy, we must see achievements and strengthen our confidence, but we must also face problems and face challenges head on.

Looking outward, the changes of a century have been exacerbated by the epidemic of the century, and the world has entered a new period of upheaval and transition. Most major economies are facing inflation, weak demand, and a sluggish recovery. .

Looking inward, China’s economy has moved from a period of rapid growth to a period of high-quality development, and the tasks of power conversion, mode change and structural adjustment are arduous. Three years of epidemics have brought significant impact and damage. Short-term local problems can be easily cured by “drugs”; complex, long-term effects require “adjustment”.

For example, the “variation” of consumption indicators. Going into 2023, as the original restrictions on use scenarios are broken, agglomeration uses based on contact such as catering, tourism and culture will lead the recovery. However, the “scarring effect” caused by the epidemic has affected residents’ ability and confidence in consumption, and it is difficult for housing and other large consumer demand to “rebound as strongly” as in other areas.

Another example is the “ups and downs” of corporate confidence. After the epidemic prevention and control has stabilized, many companies have gone out to grab orders and fight for production, and they are full of energy. However, a process is needed to recover domestic demand International market trade has slowed, and total demand has long been insufficient, which in turn has increased competitive pressure on the supply side and affected the expectations of some companies , leading to confidence that has not yet been fully restored.

These twists and turns must be taken seriously and handled logically.

Economic development is a cyclical process, and there are inevitably ups and downs. Some problems can be serious in the short term, but in the longer term they are gradual phenomena and there is no need to worry too much.

From a macro perspective, the total economic volume of my country is currently more than 120 trillion yuan, and the economic scale growing in a year is equivalent to a medium-sized economy. With a solid material base, a complete industrial system, wide market demand, and rich human resources, we have a solid foundation to cope with risks and challenges and promote stable and long-term economic development.

From a micro perspective, the innovation capabilities and competitiveness of a large number of enterprises in our country have been increasing day by day in recent years, and there is good momentum for industrial upgrading. Along with the protection of macro policies and the gradual emergence of dividends of reform and opening up, the prospects of enterprise development are promising.

We must also realize that gaps are potential, flaws are stamina, and waves and twists and turns breed hope and opportunities.

Some key core technologies are “controlled by others”, which brings many subjects to scientific and technological innovation; the manufacturing industry is still “big but not strong”, creating a broad stage for industrial upgrading; there are still many faults in people. livelihood, which includes the potential to promote investment and expand consumption Huge potential… If we can cope with the waves and twists, the economic performance of China, which is a “best student”, will be even better.

At present, a series of pragmatic and effective response measures are being implemented one after the other.

Frequent preferential policies targeting bulk consumption in automobiles, home furnishings, building materials, and electronic products support a better release of domestic demand potential. The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods returned to an upward range in August. In September, the manufacturing PMI rose to the expanding range for the first time since April this year, showing that companies are generally optimistic about market expectations.

First tier cities have implemented the “identify a house but not a loan” policy, and the financial department offered to lower mortgage interest rates and down payment ratios; they launched a “combination punch” to support the development and growth of the private economy. ; they have presented a “road map” to stabilize growth in a number of key industries and comprehensive fiscal and monetary policies. Toolbox”…Enterprise expectations are improving and market vitality is increasing, which will help the economy continue to operate on the “front wheel” track of recovery.

Recently, there has been a lot of good news in industrial areas such as smartphones and artificial intelligence, and research on some key core technologies is progressing smoothly. This also enlightens us that the “stuck neck” problem will eventually be solved by “growing taller”, and the difficulties in development, problems in progress, and growing pains will definitely be overcome. solve while developing.

China’s economy, which has grown stronger despite the storm, will surely move forward regardless of the storm.

“People’s Daily” (Page 01, November 14, 2023)

(Editors: Yang Guangyu, Hu Yongqiu)

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