China’s manufacturing PMI 49.2 for October… ‘economic contraction’ for two months in a row

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China’s manufacturing economy contracted for the second consecutive month amid various adverse factors such as power shortages and soaring raw material prices.

The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for October, released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 31st, was only 49.2. This is lower than the previous month (49.6). It also fell short of the market forecast of 49.7 compiled by Reuters.

It fell below 50 for the first time in 19 months in September, followed by further declines.

The manufacturing PMI, which is prepared based on a survey of business stakeholders, shows economic trends.

Above the 50 baseline, we are in expansionary phase, and below 50 we are in contractionary phase.

The Chinese economy is slowing faster than expected due to the complex effects of the global raw material price surge, the sporadic spread of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) in China, the power crisis, the rapid cooling of the real estate market due to the Hengda crisis, and the global supply chain bottleneck. look.

China’s third-quarter economic growth fell to 4.9%, the lowest level in a year (compared to the same period last year).

Goldman Sachs and Nomura lowered their growth forecasts for China this year from 8.2% to 7.8% and from 8.2% to 7.7%, respectively.

In particular, concerns have been raised that next year’s growth rate will be below 5%, which will be the lowest growth rate in the past 30 years, excluding last year’s growth rate of 2.3%.

Meanwhile, the non-manufacturing PMI, which shows activity in the construction and services sectors, fell to 52.4 in October from 53.2 in September. The market forecast was 53.

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[사진 출처 : 연합뉴스]

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