According to data released by China Customs on Friday, my country’s trade surplus in December 2021 was US$94.46 billion, a record high. The annual trade surplus was US$676.43 billion, and the increase in foreign trade reached US$1.4 trillion.
Monthly trend of China’s import and export balance in 2021 (USD 100 million).
Trade data show that during the global epidemic, due to the effective control of the domestic epidemic, my country’s foreign trade advantages have been fully demonstrated, and will continue until the end of the year. In terms of quality improvement, the international market share is higher, new business formats develop faster, import and export. Better structure.
Li Kuiwen, a spokesman for the General Administration of Customs, said that in 2021, my country’s import and export volume will reach 6.05 trillion US dollars. Eight years after reaching 4 trillion US dollars for the first time in 2013, it will surpass 5 trillion and 6 trillion US dollars during the year. steps, to an all-time high.
He also pointed out that in 2022, foreign trade will face more uncertain, unstable and unbalanced factors. my country’s economic development is facing three pressures: 1. The global epidemic situation is still severe, 2. The external environment is becoming more complex, severe and uncertain, and 3. The recovery momentum of international demand is slowing down. In addition to the factors of high foreign trade base in 2021, the foreign trade operation in 2022 will face certain pressure.
Data show that my country’s exports in December reached US$340.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%, the highest monthly value since historical statistics were available.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Orient Jincheng, told the Financial Associated Press that my country’s exports to the United States, Europe and major emerging economies maintained high growth in December, which was also the main reason for the sharp increase in trade surplus. The recent spread of overseas epidemics has played an important supporting role in continuing the high growth of my country’s exports. In addition, in the context of high global inflation, the prices of my country’s export commodities have generally risen, which has also pushed up the growth rate of exports.
Wang Qing predicts that the driving force of exports to economic growth will continue to weaken this year, and this will be more obvious as early as the first quarter. It is expected that fiscal policy will be launched at the beginning of the year, while monetary policy will highlight targeted support, and policies such as comprehensive RRR cuts and policy interest rate cuts are expected to be launched before the middle of the year.
Gao Ruidong, chief macro economist at Everbright Securities, said that in the first quarter, it is expected that the growth rate of exports will begin to decline. The domestic epidemic has disrupted production and export activities, the savings of American consumers has continued to decline, and the propensity to spend heavily after the holiday is not high, superimposing a base cushion in 2021 high. Affected by the high base in the second half of last year, exports are expected to fall faster in the second half of this year.
The Soochow Securities macro team said that the key to my country’s export share change in 2022 lies in the export of consumer goods and capital goods. In the export of non-epidemic prevention materials in 2021, the growth rate of capital goods exports has remained stable and is expected to become the main support for China’s exports in 2022.
Statistics show that my country’s imports in December reached US$246.04 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, and a cumulative increase of 30.1% over the same period of the year. Observing by item, in recent years, my country’s imports of high-tech products have steadily increased, with an average annual growth rate of 14%.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Orient Jincheng, believes that although the base of import growth increased by 21 percentage points in January last year, under the background of increasing domestic steady growth and accelerating infrastructure investment, the demand for bulk commodity imports is expected to expand. The import value is expected to reach about 25% year-on-year.
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