Choose to play solo (25 November 2022)

last Thursday the index moved in a narrow range. due to lack of new positive factors Energy stocks were pressured by lower crude oil prices. Electronic stocks continued to buy, while retail stocks faced selling pressure. Buy and sell volume is thin. of the US stock market closed

As a result, the SET Index closed at 1,624.96 points, +0.56 points, +0.03%, trading value 45,928 million baht, foreigners +1,955.85 million baht, TFEX -12,996 contracts, fixed income -1,909.75 million baht.

a positive factor

+/- US stock market and WTI oil market closed for Thanksgiving.
+ The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta released its latest GDPNow forecast model showing that the US economy grew 4.3% in 4Q22, higher than the previous 4.2% (1Q22 GDP contracted 1.6%, 2Q22 contracted 0.6%).
+ Germany’s business sentiment index rose to 86.3 in November beating expectations, driven by economic growth in 3Q22 and Germany’s natural gas storage capacity maxed out. The goal eases concerns about winter power shortages .
+ Economic, Tourism and Sports Division The Ministry of Tourism and Sports revealed that between 1 January and 19 November ’22, Thailand had 8,206,035 foreign tourists with an accumulated tourism income of about 2.81 billion baht from tourists from Malaysia, India, Singapore , Laos and Vietnam.
+ FTI reveals that exports of finished cars In October 2022, exports of PPV cars, passenger cars and pickup trucks increased by 15.51%YoY from receiving more semiconductor parts in passenger cars and some PPV models, Australian market, Eastern market Central and African. The value of exports was 84,917.32 million baht, an increase of 18.91%YoY due to increased shipment of chips by manufacturers.

a negative factor

– Russia announced that it will not supply oil to countries participating in the Russian oil price ceiling. While oil producers in many countries will also use this measure.

– Sweden’s central bank decided to raise the policy rate by 0.75% to 2.50%, indicating that it will further tighten monetary policy next year to reduce the risk of high inflation.
– Kasikorn Bank estimates that the trend of the baht is likely to turn around to appreciate from more foreign tourists in the year 2023, it is expected that there will be 20 million people, the baht is expected in 2023 at 33.50-34 baht per dollar. After the end of 2022, the baht is expected to be at 35.5-36 baht per dollar, a negative factor for 2023 exports.
– The National Council of Shippers (TNSC) pointed out that exports were initially negative 3% in 4Q22, while in 2023, exports are expected to grow 2-3% because the global economy is slowing down, inflation is rising, and the baht varies. .

today’s market trends

The index is expected to move sideways today under pressure following the Swedish central bank’s interest rate hike yesterday. This is in line with the Fed’s expectation that the impact of central bank interest rate hikes around the world will lead the US economy into recession in 2023, weighing on the index today. Expect the index frame today at 1,618-1,632 points.

investment strategy

• Win We Travel Together Stage 5 – Tourism stimulus measures Presented to the Cabinet on 28 November : ERW CENTEL VRANDA ASAP SPA AAV BA AOT
• Won EV subsidy measures to enter the cabinet in November: EA NEX BYD GPSC
• MSCI Rebalancing effective November 30: MSCI Standard Global Stocks in : – , Stocks out : BAM
MSCI Global Small Cap Stocks in: BAM, ERW, JWD, NEX, RAM Stocks out: PSG, SYNEX
• FTSE : Mid Cap shares to TLI

stock special report

KISS (Bloomberg Consensus 11.10 baht) “2023 year revenue growth target

30-40% off new product launches and focus on overseas markets

In 3Q22, the company had a net profit of 37 million baht, +58.4%YoY, +20.4%QoQ, revenue from the sale of goods and services at 235 million baht, +49.3% YoY, +22.4%QoQ, mainly because revenue continued to product group to grow. following the continued economic growth, with % GPM at 49.0%, a slight decrease YoY and QoQ (3Q21 = 50.1%, 2Q22 = 55.1%) due to an increase in the share of health products. With low gross profit, during 9M22, the company had a net profit of 87 million baht -12.1% YoY.

Outlook in 4Q22, the company expects to grow QoQ, YoY, with a plan to launch new products from 15-20 SKUs, focusing on expanding the Rojukiss and Sis2Sis brands.

opinion We are positive in terms of performance for the rest of the year. And continued growth in 2023 is supported in part by VAILL COVITRAP, a nasal spray that captures COVID, with profits during 9M22 accounting for 60% of the Bloomberg Consensus average estimate and the average profit for the year 2023 is 190 million baht. It is growing by 30 million The current share price has a P/E of 53x, compared to the industry’s 13x, so we recommend BUY ON WEAKNESS.

news stock

(+) SAT (Bloomberg Consensus 24.20 baht) discussing alliances The further expansion of the EV Platforms business, creating opportunities for growth, revealed that S Tron Company is moving forward with the pilot project. Production of electric tricycles for 7-11 to be used as vehicles for deliveries, including Flash As for the production of EV Buses, it will be evident in 2023. Confidence in operating results will grow, orders will be ready, and budget is set 400-500 million baht, improve productivity (coming to Thanhoon)

(+) JMART (Bloomberg Consensus 59.00 baht) Ambushi joint venture agreement with new partners Hoping to expand more business Expected clear next week Ready to plant the flag in 2023, profits grow 50% from 2022, by virtue of a business base that’ n growing – new business to support The end of the curve is expected to be a result of a New High. Take advantage of all business groups to enter the high season – “Suki Tee Noi” harvest investment (Source Na Hoon)

(+) ILM (Bloomberg Consensus 22.80 baht) plans to open 2 more branches of Index Living Mall in 2023. The budget is expected to invest per branch 1 about 100 million baht. Go ahead and expand the rental area by about 5,000-8,000 square meters. to open Index Living Mall Lat Krabang branch, hoping to help drive sales ready to target 10,000 million baht in revenue within 1-2 years

(+) CHG (Bloomberg Consensus 4.10 baht) overflowing with health checks for non-Covid patients, boosting the bed space utilization rate in the fourth quarter of 2022 to stand above 80%, ready to move forward to expand management services for hospitals and specialist centres. Confident that the total revenue in 2022 will reach the target of 20-25%, reaching 10 billion baht compared to the base of 2020 (Ma Than Hoon).


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