Weekly market review: 1) Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development: This year, we will continue to promote the structural reform of the housing supply side, insist on both renting and purchasing, and optimize the housing supply structure. 2) National Bureau of Statistics: National Statistics in 2021Fixed asset investment(excluding farmers) increased by 4.9% over the previous year, with an average increase of 3.9% in the two years. 3) The 14th Five-Year Development Plan for Housing and Urban-Rural Construction in Wuhu City states that by the end of 2025, 100% of the affordable housing will be prefabricated buildings.
This week’s point of view: The investment in affordable housing has exceeded expectations, and the prefabricated model is advancing rapidly, once again emphasizing the opportunity for investment in the industry chain. On January 20, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development stated that it would vigorously increase the supply of affordable rental housing to increase the populationnet inflowIn 22 years, we will build and raise 2.4 million sets of affordable rental housing. Over the past 21 years, policies to support affordable housing have been promulgated intensively, and the intensity has been continuously increased. The Politburo meeting mentioned pushing the construction of affordable housing rental housing three times. The Central Economic Workers Conference emphasized promoting the construction of affordable housing. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development proposed to strive for more than 30% of new housing during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Provide multi-dimensional and multi-level support for the construction of affordable housing in terms of land, capital, finance, tax and fee reduction, and optimization of administrative approval. Superimposed on the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development’s unexpected preparation plan for affordable rental housing, the government is increasingly concerned about affordable housing. At present, most of the key first- and second-tier cities have responded positively, and successively announced plans for the start of construction of affordable housing during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Among them, new affordable housing in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen accounts for over 45% of new housing. We estimate that 7 million affordable housing units will be started in key 39 cities during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Considering that there are still 4 years left until the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan period, it corresponds to 1.75 million units of affordable housing units each year. This time, it plans to build 2.4 million affordable housing units in 22 years, which is 37% higher than our previous expectation and +155% year-on-year in 21 years.
Considering that the housing area of affordable housing is mainly small units of no more than 70 square meters, the corresponding construction area is 168 million square meters, and the corresponding investment scale exceeds 600 billion yuan. It is expected to become an important marginal stability force other than commercial housing investment. In the early stage of development, prefabricated buildings faced problems such as high cost, low consumer acceptance, and imperfect industrial facilities. However, due to the advantages of standardization, industrialization, energy conservation and environmental protection, they were promoted in government-invested construction projects and public buildings. Faster, we believe that with the increased investment in affordable housing, the demand for prefabricated housing is also expected to continue to expand. On January 20, the National Housing and Urban-Rural Construction Work Conference was held in Beijing. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized that “in 2022, the intelligent construction policy and industrial system will be improved, and the prefabricated buildings will be vigorously developed. In 2022, the proportion of prefabricated buildings in new buildings will reach 25%. Above”, the ratio has increased by 5pct compared with 2020, and the assembly type continues to accelerate. We once again emphasize the opportunity for investment in the industrial chain.
Infrastructure data tracking: 1) Special bonds: The issuance of special bonds this week was 84.327 billion yuan, and as of January 22, 2022, the cumulative issuance was 122.528 billion yuan. Urban investment bonds: The issuance of urban investment bonds is 46.310 billion yuan, the net financing amount is -60.142 billion yuan, and the cumulative net financing amount so far is 134.995 billion yuan, a cumulative year-on-year -47.96%. 2) This week, there was no heavy reiteration by the National Development and Reform Commission. 3) Company order tracking: A total of 7 companies won bids for 11 orders this week, with a total bid amount of 11.497 billion yuan.
Investment advice: key recommendationSichuan Road and Bridge、Suwen Electric Power、Yasha shares、Southeast Grid、Honglu Steel Structure, other stocks recommendedChina Railway、CCCC、Chinese architecture、China Railway Construction, it is recommended to pay attention toFuhuang Steel Structure、Seiko steel structure、Dongzhu Ecology。
Market review:
1) Industry: The broader market rose 0.04% this week, the ChiNext fell 3.09%, and the construction industry rose 2.99%, performing better in the entire market.
2) Individual stocks: A total of 48 stocks rose this week, and the top five gainers wereLingnan shares(28.61%)，Hongrun Construction(14.69%)，POWERCHINA(13.56%)，Academy of Construction Sciences(12.27%)，Yanhua Intelligence(11.66%); the top five decliners wereZhongyida(-10.62%)，Southeast Grid(-8.64%)，Nongshang environment(-8.35%)，Sinosteel International(-7.97%)，Donghua Technology(-7.83%). From a monthly perspective (20220101~20220122), a total of 55 stocks rose, and a total of 55 stocks rose year-to-date.
3) Tracking of funds: From a macro perspective, the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 6.3397 this week, and the closing price last Friday was 6.3435. The yield to maturity of 10-year treasury bonds fell to 2.7100%, and the closing price on Friday was 2.7935%, down 8.35bp from last week.
4) Others: A total of 9 companies occurred this weekLarge transactions, 5 significantshareholderIncrease or decrease holdings.
Risk warning: The growth rate of infrastructure investment is not as expected, and the degree of policy advancement is not as good as expected.
(Article source: Huachuangsecurities）
