Prof. reported the situation of COVID-19, 18,912 new cases (highest daily statistics), cumulative 597,287 cases, 10,750 recovered, 391,920 cumulative, 178 deaths (highest daily statistics), 4,857 cumulative cases, academic estimates. according to mathematical model The cumulative number of infections surpassed a million at the end of August 2021.
31 July 2024) The COVID-19 Information Center reported 18,912 new cases, categorized as 18,102 new infections, 810 infected in prisons/detention centers, and 568,424 cumulative cases (since April 1) recovered. 10,750 returned home sick, 364,494 total recovered, 200,510 recovering, 178 deaths.
While the cumulative number of cases since 2020 has risen to 597,287 and the cumulative number of deaths is 4,857, this is the highest daily reported cases. and the highest death toll in Thailand And if you look back on the numbers over the past 1 week, the number has been consistently higher than 10,000 people per day as follows:
- On July 24, 14,260 more infections, 119 deaths.
- On 25 July, 15,335 more infections and 129 deaths.
- On July 26, 15,376 more infections, 87 deaths.
- On 27 July, 14,150 more infections, 118 deaths.
- On July 28, 16,533 more infections and 133 more deaths.
- On 29 July, 17,669 more infections, 165 deaths.
- On July 30, 17,345 more infections, 117 deaths.
- On July 31, there were 18,102 more infections and 178 deaths.
Most of the delta species are found.
Dr. Supakit Sirilak, Director-General of the Department of Medical Sciences Revealing the results of surveillance for COVID-19 strains in Thailand by the Department of Medical Sciences Ministry of Health together with a network of laboratories It is surveillance data between 17-23 July ago. It found that out of the 3,206 randomly tested cases, 2,215 were of the Delta (Indian) strain, or 69.1 percent, which is likely to increase quite rapidly. The Alpha species (British) found 905 individuals, or 28.2 percent, and the Beta (South Africa) species, amounted to 86, 2.7%.
Of the 1,273 cases found in Bangkok, 1,053 people were Delta strains or 82.7%, Alpha strains amounted to 220 people, or 17.3%, while Beta strains were not infected.
“In the region, 1,933 cases were reported, of which 1,162 were Delta strains, or 60.2%, Alpha 685 cases, or 35.4%, and Beta 86 cases, 4.4%, with delta strains increasing. And now we have found 72 provinces.”
The trend of the beta species has decreased – found in Bung Kan, including 5 people.
The alpha and beta species has a tendency to reduce the proportion Most of the beta species are still found in the southern region, the most in Narathiwat Province. And there are sporadic numbers in Pattani, Satun, Trang, Krabi, Surat Thani, and it is found in the northeastern region of Bueng Kan province.
For the beta strain found in Bueng Kan province, 4 people have been found this week, one of whom is a relative of a previously confirmed patient. At present, the local authorities have continuously monitored and monitored.
Therefore, surveillance data for the whole country between April 1 – July 23 in the past Alpha species numbered 13,311 people or 61.18%, Delta species number 7,977 people or 36.67 percent, and beta species 468 people or 2.15%. Haven’t found any new ones yet.
Spokesman of the Ministry of Public Health said the global covid epidemic has worsened – Thailand is stable.
Dr. Roong Ruang Kitphati, a consultant at the Krang level (Ror. 11) and a spokesman for the Ministry of Public Health. Post a message on Facebook called “Ministry Spokesperson, Ministry of Public Health” stating that the truth … COVID 19 Saturday, July 31, 2021, the situation of Pfizer vaccination measures and accelerate the vaccination of high-risk groups Risk area
1) The situation of Covid-19 around the world has returned to become more severe again. The situation in Thailand began to stabilize.
• Measures to reduce infection and death. must be carried out intensively
• Direct the policy of favipiravir as soon as possible, which in the next two months will have about 80 million pills shipped to reserve in the region. to provide care for both patients in the hospital and patients who are isolated at home and in the community
• Community Proactive Unit CCR Team provides medical care. Screening with Antigen Test Kit (ATK). Vaccination of vulnerable groups.
• Bangkok has injections covered 61.67%, only the elderly in Bangkok have injections 70%.
• In August, there will be another 10 million doses of vaccine, will adjust the allocation to more provinces.
2) Predicting COVID-19 situation using SEIR math model for the next 3-4 months if there is no intensive lockdown.
• New infections may exceed 40 thousand per day, peaking on 14 September 2021, and more than 500 deaths per day.
• If there are lockdown measures. All relevant parties, including the people, cooperated fully. And longer durations can reduce infection and death.
• If the lockdown is intense together with the search for patients and vaccination in high-risk groups This will further reduce infection and death.
• Early lockdown measures will not see a significant reduction in the number of infected people, but after 2-4 weeks, there will be a significant reduction in the number of infected people. It will be evaluated periodically and proposed. CCP will consider further
3) Distribute the August vaccine.
• Focus on risk groups 608, namely
– Seniors 60 years and over
– 7 chronic diseases
– 12 weeks pregnant woman
• Vaccines are used to control outbreaks. and in special target areas tourist area
• Use the SA formula, which is the first dose of sinovac, 3 weeks apart, and inject AstraZeneca as the second dose. Will have a high immunity near AstraZeneca 2 doses found to be safe.
– (2 doses of AstraZeneca take up to 12 weeks for the second injection)
4) 1.5 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine donated by the United States.
• Currently in storage temperature -70 degrees Celsius.
• After passing quality and safety checks.
• Start sending the first lot to the service unit on 5-6 Aug. and start injecting to the target group on 9 Aug. Consisting of ….
4.1) Medical and public health personnel caring for COVID-19 patients across the country are 700,000 doses of stimulation needles.
4.2) Elderly people 60 years and over, 7 chronic diseases patients aged 12 years and over, pregnant women 12 weeks or more in 13 provinces with the highest and strictest control (Bangkok, Samut Prakan, Samut Sakhon, Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani, Nakhon Pathom, Chonburi, Chachoengsao, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Songkhla, Pattani, Yala and Narathiwat. ) 645,000 doses
4.3) Foreigners in Thailand who are at risk groups like Thai people Including Thai people who have to go abroad and need vaccination, such as students, students 150,000 doses
4.4) Research studies Follow the measures of 5,000 doses.
5) COVID-19 control and treatment
• Emphasis on ATK testing with quick results, organizing a system to care for asymptomatic patients at home and in the community. by connecting to the service
• Vaccinate vulnerable groups with difficult access to services. and rapid drug treatment to reduce severe symptoms and death.
• Public health personnel in the region join the CCR Team between August 4-10, at least 50 teams, 10 people each to proactively work in communities in Bangkok, together with 69 Bangkok Health Service Centers. The target is for proactive screening of 400,000-500,000 people. It is estimated that at least 70,000-80,000 infected will be brought into the treatment system.
Scholars estimate based on mathematical models The cumulative number of infections surpassed a million at the end of August 2021.
According to a mathematical model of Associate Professor Nuanchan Singkran, an academic at Mahidol University’s Faculty of Environment and Resources Science, today’s forecast for the daily cumulative number of infections is July 31, 2021, with a margin of error of only one percent. 0.09 only
That is to say, the actual number of infections according to The CCC reported 18,912 cases, while the cumulative results were higher. according to the mathematical model The total number of infected people stood at 18,366, lower than the actual total number of 546 cases, or 0.09 percent.
For the forecast for 1 Aug 2021 is tomorrow, considering the overall forecast 659 days from 12 Jan 2020 to 31 Oct 2021 with today’s model update. The number of infections as of August 1 is expected to range from 18,935 (middle) to 19,461 (upper).
Based on trends in daily infection numbers and mathematical model predictions, the cumulative number of infections in Thailand will cross 1 million on Aug 18, plus or minus 2 days.
while the rate of infection in the epidemic cycle Between 2-8 August (next week), there is a trend to increase, in the range of 19 thousand to 20 thousand cases per day. and may reach 2.2 thousand cases at the end of the epidemic cycle
Sourced from: Thai PBS   | Nation TV