Even people who have been infected with COVID-19 and have recovered can be reinfected within 1 to 2 years if they do not wear a mask or get vaccinated. Even if COVID-19 becomes endemic like the seasonal flu, it is analyzed that it may re-emerge if the reinfection rate rises. As new mutations emerge, the possibility of improving vaccines and requiring periodic vaccinations has also been raised. The figure is a microstructure diagram of the Corona 19 virus created by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the United States. Provided by University of North Carolina, USA
Even people who have been infected with the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19, Corona 19) and have recovered can be re-infected within 1 to 2 years if they do not wear a mask or get vaccinated, a study has found. Even if COVID-19 becomes endemic like the seasonal flu, it is analyzed that it may re-emerge if the reinfection rate rises. As new mutations emerge, the possibility of improving vaccines and requiring periodic vaccinations has also been raised.
Jeffrey Townsend, professor of biostatistics at Yale University’s School of Public Health, and Sudir Kumar, professor of biology at Temple University’s Institute of Genomics and Evolutionary Medicine in the U.S., conducted a joint research team of three to five years and three months after recovery, on average, one year and four months after the COVID-19 virus became endemic. The results of the study on the risk of reinfection were published in the international scientific journal ‘The Lancet Microbiology’ on the 1st. When an infectious disease becomes endemic, it means that it continues to occur in a specific area.
The research team analyzed the antibody production, reduction, and reinfection probability of those infected with six types of human coronaviruses that were prevalent between 1984 and 2020. Of these, three are viruses that cause common seasonal colds (HCoV-OC43, HCoV-OC43, HCoV-229E), and the other three are COVID-19, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). ) is a highly pathogenic virus that causes Since there is little information about the Corona 19 virus compared to other viruses, we modeled it based on the genetic phylogenetic relationship with other human coronaviruses. Even in the case of COVID-19, he predicted how long immunity would last.
As a result, regardless of the type of coronavirus or highly pathogenic, it was found that after 1 to 2 years, immunity decreases and the risk of re-infection with the same virus increases. HCoV-OC43, the coronavirus that causes the common cold, had a greater risk of reinfection between 15 months and 10 years, HCoV-OC43 between 31 months and 12 years, and HCoV-229E between 16 months and 12 years. The SARS coronavirus was at high risk of a resurgence after 4 months to 6 years. Although it is difficult to express the MERS coronavirus in a certain period, it was analyzed that the risk of reinfection increases with the passage of time. As a result of modeling the genetic similarity with these viruses, the research team found that the risk of re-infection with the COVID-19 virus is high between 3 months to 5 years and 3 months, and an average of 16 months (1 year and 4 months).
Professor Townsend said, “If you don’t wear a mask or do social distancing and don’t get the Corona 19 vaccine, there is a risk of being re-infected with Corona 19 after about a year and four months, even if you have been infected once and have recovered. , the more people infected, the more likely it is to be re-infected,” he said. He explained, “Even those who have recovered from COVID-19 should be vaccinated if they have not yet been vaccinated,” he said. The research team argued that the age group subject to vaccination should be further expanded to increase herd immunity.
The researchers also noted that the risk of reinfection increases as it coexists with the COVID-19 virus and the virus itself becomes endemic. He also argued that for the next few years, it is necessary to prevent re-infection by wearing a mask, indoor ventilation, social distancing, and receiving regular COVID-19 vaccines.
Like the delta mutation, it is necessary to monitor the appearance of new mutations because mutations that can somewhat avoid the immunity caused by the existing Corona 19 virus infection may appear. There is also the possibility that the vaccine may need to be improved and periodically vaccinated to take into account the risk of periodic mutations. As the influenza virus spreads with new mutations every year, it is just like the high-risk group needs to get the flu vaccine every year.
In the long term, the research team analyzed that COVID-19 will not continue to have fatal consequences like this pandemic, as the virus will eventually evolve in a less lethal direction and the performance of vaccines and therapeutics will also improve.
.
