In addition, the uncertainty in vaccine procurement KKP Research estimates that by the end of this year, only 35% of the population will have two doses of the vaccine. Currently, the proportion of the population who received the full dose of vaccine in Thailand still very low the remaining solution It is an inevitable tightening of lockdown measures and a huge increase in economic costs.
However, the first outbreak last year where the number of new infections is low (The highest number of infected people per day is only 188), but Thailand chooses to take strict measures to lock down the city throughout the country. which severely affected the economy While at the beginning of last year The number of active cases being hospitalized was much higher, but the measures were relatively relaxed compared to previous outbreaks. until the situation caused a severe outbreak
KKP Research estimates that if the measures that Thailand currently use can’t control the outbreak There is the potential for more intensive measures such as workplace closures. But these measures need to be planned and coordinated to minimize their impact and confusion and to enable them to be enforced most effectively.
In addition, he also saw that there are several measures that the government should accelerate policy improvements. and issuing measures to control the situation and reduce the impact, including
1. There should be a transparent and straightforward assessment of the situation and communication with the people. to describe the situation honestly and clearly ask for cooperation from the people
2. Should prepare a plan for lockdown measures that look forward to in accordance with the situation and reasonable and communicate the enforcement and relaxation plans in advance.
3. Accelerate the capacity of disease detection, disease investigation, patient isolation and treatment, and improve policies that hinder disease detection potential. Accelerate the procurement of evidence-based mRNA vaccines to protect against delta strains of virus as early as possible to speed up the immunity of the people
4. Prepare policies to heal people and businesses that are appropriate for the level and duration of the lockdown measures. to support the measures to be effective reduce the impact on people and prevent permanent economic scarring. and maintain the economy to be able to recover quickly when the epidemic situation improves
However, even though the public debt level is likely to increase but with lower interest rates As a result, interest expenditures are less of a burden on the budget. We believe that the country still has the potential to create more debt if needed to benefit the economy and people. A plan is needed to reduce the deficit in the future. And must prioritize the use of the budget to be the most efficient.