January 4, 2021
Secretary-General Point if COVID can be controlled within the beginning Febuary No need to adjust government economic plans Worried about 3 economic risk factors in 2021 Employment – Household debt – Baht value Revealed the government to use the crisis opportunity Accelerate economic restructuring Pulling out investments to increase the country’s potential
Year 2021 It was an important year for the economy. After the year In 2020, the Thai economy and the world economy are affected by theCOVID-19 For most of the year in 2021, both citizens and businesses expect to see an improvement in the economy from the previous year. The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDB) expects the economy in 2021 to expand by 3.5-4.5%, the middle value at 4.0%.
“Bangkok Business” interview Danucha Phichayanan, Secretary-General of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDB) To the economic direction of 2021
Danucha said The first half of 2021 was a time when the economy was still on the edge of uncertainty. Due to the resurgence of the COVID-19 epidemic in many countries and the recent resurgence in the country, In other countries, although many countries have already begun vaccinating their population But for the vaccine to spread around the world, it will take some time. For Thailand, the period when the vaccine will be reserved from abroad is the second half of the year. Which is considered to be a time when the outbreak will affect the economy at any time.
As for the new outbreak in Samut Sakhon Province and spread to many provinces, monitor whether the control will be achieved in a short time, whether within January to early February or not. And if it is still at this time, economic views and forecasts, as well as the government’s economic management program, can continue without much adjustment.
“The six-month economic administration still managed on uncertainty. Be careful not to happen Recurring events Because we must use the strengths of public health that control COVID-19. Well as a selling point Inviting people to invest in the country Therefore, all parties must work together to control the outbreak to make the people in the country safe in the first place, so that the economy can move forward as planned. ”
As for the key issues to be monitored in the 2021 economic administration, in addition to COVID-19, there are three other factors that need to be monitored:
1. Employment Conditions That must try to enable entrepreneurs to maintain employment levels continuously during the gradual economic recovery from the effects of COVID-19.
2. Household debt At present, the share of household debt in Thailand to GDP has risen to 83%, which is considered a high proportion, which must be careful not to cause household debt to be a continuing problem, as well as other problems. The household debt problem must have both short-term solutions. And in the long run, we have to try to make Thai people have financial literacy (financial literacy) know how much they can afford to spend. Which agrees that solving problems must be looked at for a long time
3. Thai baht and exchange rates With this problem affecting the export sector But the more important thing to think about is that the baht appreciation comes from the fact that we import less capital goods. Thai private overseas investment is still limited. They have to sit and talk about how to manage the baht in order not to affect the baht’s economic recovery.
Part of the story NESDB monitoring the change is the policy of the new President of the United States, Joe Biden, that will be directed. In addition to the ongoing Sino-U.S. Trade war, it is important to monitor how other policies of the new president of the United States will affect the world economy and the Thai economy in order to bring further economic planning.
This In the past, during the crisis from COVID-19 Is to take care of the domestic economy Caring for low-income groups and focusing on stimulating domestic consumption By the first half of the year 2021 still rely primarily on the domestic economy. And private investment Including driving public spending and investment in order to improve the domestic economy.
In addition, there is also another credit line from the 400 billion baht loan that will begin to see more money into the system. Along with starting to see projects that are characterized by economic restructuring And develop more and more foundational communities
However, in the next phase we cannot use a specific engine for consumption. And investment in the country to drive the economy Need to extract foreign direct investment (FDI) To drive the economy too
By 2021, the Center for the Economic Management of the Covid-19 Outbreak (BEC) plans to be a year that will seriously attract foreign investors. And expected foreign investors to add Especially in the fourth quarter of the year, we hope that there will be more foreign direct investment.
In this regard, both domestic and foreign investment are linked to the country’s economic restructuring wherever it goes. Which has to look at the next 4-5 years that focuses on which industries To achieve clarity and drive the entire body such as Electric cars, which have to go through the entire supply chain because there are ongoing industries to invest in, such as batteries, charging stations, grids, and power systems. Sensors and electronics
Including if Thailand aims to become a medical center Personnel preparation Relevant research centers must be prepared as well. In which the creation of a clear key to pointing out private investment And an opportunity during the appreciation of the baht should accelerate investment In particular, new industries are now discussing more economic restructuring in the way of using higher technology.
Multitasking must go hand in hand. The privileges of the Board of Investment (BOI) cannot be used in the traditional way. It must focus on incentives for each industry that will influence investment in which companies are rating 5-10 Of the world to invest Which is a strategic use of solicitation
“Bo went to talk to the private sector to talk continuously, matching investments, transfer technology together. This year I will take this matter seriously. Real investments will be born this year or at the earliest quarter. 4 To create a long-term cluster and production base “
In 2021, if we begin to restructure the economy quickly and do not interfere with the cure of COVID-19. Like any other country Will make the economy move forward and expand 3.5-4.5%, the middle value at 4.0%
In almost a year of the COVID-19 epidemic in Thailand and the Thai economy has begun to recover, it is seen that the Thai economic fundamentals are valid. If the epidemic is controlled as well, the rest is to gradually adjust the economic structure. And in the next phase, the Thai economy will be winged Which must admit that apart from being a crisis, it is an opportunity By now, each country has the opportunity to build an economy. It was a time when each country downgraded almost the same level to start over at the same time.