Dusseldorf The German leading index starts with significant profits in the trade, but in the course of the plus sign becomes smaller. In the morning trade, the Dax noted 0.6 percent plus at 11,633 meters. Last Friday, the Frankfurt benchmark rose 1.3 percent to 11,562 points.
In addition to the hopes for fiscal impulses from Germany, China's measures to reduce the cost of borrowing for companies are providing fresh optimism. Positive comments from US President Trump Washington over the state of Washington's talks with Beijing over the weekend have also provided a boost.
Despite the current plus signs and many hopes, the current situation looks anything but rosy: Since the beginning of July, the leading index has lost about six and a half percent. He finished last three trading weeks in a row with losses, Since the end of July, the US stock exchanges, which had previously marked new record highs, have also reversed.
If the downturn this year compared with the declines of the years 2015/16 and 2018, there is likely to be another decline, the Dax could send 11,000 points. There, the ongoing since 2016 upward trend. At about 10,500 points, the lows of the turn of the year 2018/19, the starting point of this year's rally.
Many experts also expect this negative trend to continue. "The view forward is rather cloudy"Says Christian Kahler, equity strategy strategist at DZ Bank, for example.
The insider barometer, which is published every two weeks in Handelsblatt, gives no hope. On the contrary: "From the point of view of the boards and supervisory boards of German companies, the Continue stock market trend downwards"Says Olaf Stotz, Professor at Frankfurt University Private School of Finance & Management. He has spent the past 16 years monitoring the purchases and sales of top executives of own company stocks and analyzing what they mean for the development of the markets. For this he has developed the insider barometer.
This barometer is since the beginning of July fell sharply from 150 to just under 125 points, Already at the first slide of nine points Stotz had stressed that stock prices often stagnated or fall when the insider barometer drops so much – regardless of the absolute level. Now the descent is accelerating.
Look at the individual values
Deutsche Bank: After a turbulent trade last Friday, the stock is once again the focus of investors. With a plus of 2.8 percent, the paper again tops the Dax winner list. At the end of last week, the Deutsche Bank share initially hit a new record low of EUR 5.77, after which the paper rose 4.6 percent to EUR 6.16, leading the Dax winner list at the close of trading.
At the bank, Supervisory Board Chairman Paul Achleitner is under pressure. Deutsche Bank investors want to prevent further term of office.
Grand City Properties: The residential real estate group increased its income and profits in the first half of the year. Rents and other income added € 278 million to MDax, up four percent from a year earlier. Operating income from continuing operations (FFO 1) climbed seven percent to 106 million euros. Grand City Properties confirmed its forecast for the fiscal year. Above all, the company buys apartments in need of refurbishment, renovates them and then tries to rent them more expensively. Although the group is based in Luxembourg, the majority of the approximately 81,000 apartments are located in Germany. The share hardly reacts to the new numbers and is trading at 0.2% plus.
BASF: Group CEO Martin Brudermüller wants to increase the dividend in spite of the recent profit warnings in the future. Investors appreciated the financial strength of the group and its reliability in dividends, he said. "It has always been sacred to us, and we have further strengthened our resolve in this regard by saying that we not only want to keep the dividend at least, but steadily increase it." The stock benefits from the announcement and rises by 0.9 percent.
What the charting says
Decisive for the trading process in the coming days is the battle for the 200-day line. The line is currently listed at 11,640 meters, the opening Dax could overcome this mark.
But not only the Dax has fallen below the 200-day mark, which is considered a medium-term sell-signal. Meanwhile, at almost two-thirds of all DAX individual stocks, the current prices are well below the generally falling 200-day line. This includes the majority of industrials, from Daimler to Thyssen-Krupp, from BASF to Siemens.
For five shares, the battle for the 200 line is currently in the offing (Allianz, Deutsche Post, SAP, Vonovia, Wirecard). Adidas, Beiersdorf, Deutsche Börse, RWE, Munich Re, Linde and Bayer are still above this average over the medium term. Bayer, however, is an isolated case, this value is a turnaround speculation to a possible agreement in the Monsanto dispute.
In the medium term, it's about the question of where the Dax could fathom its depths. "All in all, there is no bad chance of bottoming out at the latest by 11,000 / 11,200 meters, also because of the medium-term market conditions that are now very oversold", say the technical analysts of the Düsseldorf-based bank HSBC.
Look at the stock exchanges USA and Asia
In anticipation of further cash injections of the central banks and new economic aid investors have come to the conclusion of the week on Friday again out of cover. The Dow Jones Index of Standards closed 1.2 percent higher in New York last Friday at 25,886 points. The broader S & P 500 gained 1.44 percent to 2888 points. The index of the technology exchange Nasdaq rose by 1.67 percent to 7895 points.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange on Monday was buoyed by the good US requirements. The Nikkei of the 225 leading stocks rose by 0.5 percent to 20,525 points by the late morning. The broader Topix gained 0.4 percent to 1491 points. Traders explained the price gains also with hopes for further cash injections of the central banks and new economic aid.
Analysts check: UBS remains on the buy recommendation for Infineon
The Swiss bank UBS has left the classification for Infineon on "Buy" with a price target of 23.50 euros. In the global semiconductor market, there are currently some positive and some negative aspects, so that in total for the industry certain risks, analyst Nicolas Gaudois wrote in a study available on Friday. The sales prospects for the companies remained challenging in the short term. He therefore recommends proceeding selectively for individual values. Infineon was a purchase.
According to Handelsblatt analyst check, there were 32 studies on the Infineon share in the months. The 22 purchase recommendations are compared eight times with the assessment "hold" and two sales recommendations. The average weighted price target of all 32 analyzes, which are weighted higher in younger studies, is 21.41 euros, well above the current price of 15.30 euros.
All analyzes in the Handelsblatt analyst check
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