Despite the possibility of a rate cut by the Fed… BTC’s outlook is ‘bleak’

After Bitcoin fell to $15,000, it recovered to $16,000/CoinMarketCap

Bitcoin, which showed a downward trend after the FTX crisis, the three largest virtual currency exchanges in the world, turned to an upward trend as the United States Federal Reserve (Fed·Fed) adjusted the pace of interest rate hikes. However, there are many risks, and the market outlook is bleak.

According to the global cryptocurrency exchange CoinMarketCap on the 27th, Bitcoin, which fell to $15,000 on the 22nd, rose to $16,000 on the upside.

After FTX filed for bankruptcy protection, the news that Genesis Trading might also go bankrupt became known, and the stock plummeted.

In addition, following BlockFi, major virtual asset companies such as Gemini and Crypto.com fall into a liquidity crisis, and the bankruptcy of Domino of FTX seems to be a reality.

In particular, the wave grew even more when it was revealed that even Gopax, a domestic cryptocurrency exchange managed by Genesis Trading, was unable to pay the principal and interest of deposited products on time.

The Fed has stopped the decline of cryptocurrency.

According to the minutes of the regular meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released on the 23rd (local time), more than half of the participants thought that slowing the pace of rate hikes would soon be appropriate.

At the regular November FOMC meeting held on the 1st and 2nd, the Fed announced its intention to reduce the rate of increase from December at the earliest, in a press conference following four huge steps in a row (an increase of 0.75 points percentage at a time). .

The market interprets it as something that adds strength to the possibility of a major step (an increase of 0.5 percentage points in interest rates at a time) in December.

However, despite the positive response from the Fed, the outlook for the digital currency market is not very bright. This is because the solution to the FTX crisis is still difficult.

Cryptocurrency daily transaction volume has been 30-40% below average this year, raising concerns that it will not recover funds.

Also, even if the Fed adjusts the pace, the forecast that it will maintain 5.25% until the end of next year dominates.

According to the minutes, “the final level of the key interest rate required to reach the target (2% inflation rate) will be slightly higher than previously predicted,” and he stressed, “it is very likely that the final rate will be charged.”

In a dot plot (a chart showing FOMC members’ interest rate forecasts) released in September, it was confirmed to be 4.6%.

Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, said, “Bitcoin has crossed the $16,000 level again, but it is still in an unstable phase.

An official from a domestic virtual store said, “The Santa Claus Rally will not affect the temporary records,” and said, “After the hotline collapses, the $10,000 discount will be immediate.”

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