Reporter Ryu Young-joo
Last week, the dollar-earning exchange rate broke through 1440 won during the day, breaking the old daily point, continuing the unstable trend.
Experts predict that fluctuations in the exchange rate will increase this week as there is no special material that can stop the upward trend in the exchange rate, such as the tightening stance of the high strength of the United States, concerns about the economic slowdown in Europe, and the deterioration of the exchange rate. domestic trade balance.
The 28th of last month was recorded as ‘Black Wednesday’. The KOSPI index plunged more than 2% and fell below the 2,200 line, and the dollar-earning exchange rate increased to 1442.2 won at one point during the day.
As the British government announced a large-scale tax cut, the pound plunged to an all-time low, and the dollar strengthened.
In addition, as concerns about the economic slowdown in Europe and China and the European energy crisis caused by the long war in Ukraine continued, the domestic financial market could not avoid instability.
The problem is that the dollar-earning exchange rate can rise even faster even with market intervention through continued verbal interventions and actual selling of dollars by the foreign exchange authorities.
According to the Ministry of Strategy and Finance, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Strategy and Finance Choo Kyung-ho held a conference call with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on the afternoon of the 30th to discuss global economic trends and market cooperation foreign exchange. .
Choo Kyung-ho, Deputy Prime Minister of the Economy and Minister of Strategy and Finance. Reporter Hwang Jin-hwan
“The tightening global financial environment is putting a significant burden on the Korean economy,” said Deputy Prime Minister Chu.
Deputy Prime Minister Choo and Minister Yellen evaluated that despite the sharp increase in the won-dollar exchange rate, the Korean economy still maintains strong external resilience thanks to good foreign exchange liquidity and sufficient foreign exchange reserves.
However, the won-dollar exchange rate increased from 1,911 won at the beginning of this year to 1430.2 won on the 30th of last month. This means that the gain has fallen by 16.9% against the dollar in nine months.
Based on the intraday high, 1st (1355.1 won), 2nd (1363.0 won), 5th (1375.0 won), 6th (1377.0 won), 7th (1388.4 won), the 14th (1395.5 won), the 15th (1397.9 won), the 16th (1399.0 won), the 22nd (1413.4 won), the 26th (1435.4 won), and the 28th (1442.2 won), etc.
In the middle of last month, when the exchange rate rose to the level of 1,400 won, the Seoul foreign exchange market poured $700 million and $2 billion worth of selling in dollars, which is estimated to be government intervention, respectively.
At the same time, the foreign exchange authorities took measures to stabilize the market, asking domestic foreign exchange banks to report the trend of the dollar order and foreign exchange positions by banks every hour, but the effect was not great.
Experts predicted that the Bank of Korea’s two key rate hikes in October and November this year and the government’s purchase of government bonds could mitigate the sharp rise in the exchange rate to some extent, but it will not be able to ease the negative global trend- broad of strong dollar immediately.
This is because external variables such as the aggressive austerity stance of the United States will not change until next year, the judgment that the price peak has not yet passed, and growing concerns about an economic slowdown in China and Europe still exist.
Jo Yeon-joo, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, said, “For fears about monetary policy to subside (US), a slowdown in price indicators must be confirmed. As education costs are rising, it is difficult to expect a significant slowdown in the monthly index September too.”
Researcher Cho said, “The US 3Q earnings season, which starts in October, also exacerbates fundamental concerns.” We believe the market volatility will continue,” he said.
