benefit analysis
1.1 Comparison of benefits between three injections and four injections. In an Israeli study recently published in the New England Journal, people who had four injections had a lower rate of severe infection than those who had three injections only for the first six weeks after injections. After that, no data was reported. (I don’t understand why they didn’t report it.) But there is data which I secretly checked that when comparing rates of symptomatic infection, the four-dose had less than the triple-dose. Only the first 4 weeks, then this difference gradually decreases until the infection rate is the same in the 8th week. Either three or four injections Here’s my guess from between the lines.
Incidentally, the difference in severe infections in the first six weeks between the three injections and the four injections that the media had tried to spread. Actually, it’s not that much different as people understand. In other words, the infection counts in this study do not count severe cases per hundred (%) of all infected people, as is commonly understood, but per 100,000 person-days. All infected (the term “person-day” means that one person is sick one day counts as one person-day. If one person is sick for ten days, it counts as ten people-days. or if two people are sick one day, count as two-days) Don’t ask me why I don’t count as “people”. Let it be easy to understand. because the issue will be broken too much I can only say that it’s a gimmicky way of presenting the results of the research. However, I will explain to you with an absolute risk reduction (ARR) that you can easily understand. In other words, this study concluded that 3.9 vaccinated persons per 100,000 people-day (0.0039%) and 1.5 people per 100,000 people-day (0.0015%) who received four doses of severe infection (0.0015%) had different risks. It’s only 0.0024% (seriously infected per 100 people-day of all infected people), so do you think 0.0024% is a big percentage?
1.2.. Compare the benefits of the triple-drug vaccine against natural infections.
Because of the research done in Israel that I mentioned above, deliberately not to compare natural infected people with the rate of severe illness that requires hospitalization more or less than those who received the IV vaccination. (I don’t understand why exclude natural infected because natural infected people are full of cities and will be the majority of people who will use the results). Therefore, this research cannot answer the question of whether the IV vaccination With natural infection, which is better? I know, but to this day, there is not a single piece of evidence that vaccination in excess of two doses is better than immunity derived from natural infections. There is only evidence that natural infections are as good as or better than getting vaccinated Proof that this comes from two directions.
Evidence piece 1. It is research supported by the WHO and the German government. The metaanalysis center collects random blood samples to test the COVID immunity of patients across the African continent. As a result, the immunity detected in the blood of Africans randomly tested across the continent has increased from 3.0% in mid-2020 (before the Omicron outbreak) to 65.1% by the end of 2021 (after the Omicron epidemic). This means that the Omicron epidemic has swept across the continent until the very end with very few casualties. For example, Uganda has 3,595 cumulative deaths (2.1%) from a population of 45.7 million. So far, cases have calmed from the big wave. There are an average of 9 new infections per day, and no one dies each day. where the vaccination rate of this continent is only 14%.
The second piece of evidence is data on hospitalization rates for people with different vaccine and infection statuses. which studied the population of California and New York. As disclosed by the CDC, if the risk was taken, they had to be hospitalized for those who had never been infected and were never vaccinated. Those who were vaccinated but had never been infected had a 19.8 times lower risk of hospitalization, but those who had been infected and were vaccinated as well. The risk of hospitalization was 55.3 times less, while those who had been infected without vaccination had a 57.5 times lower risk of hospitalization. so severe that he actually had to go to the hospital Regardless of whether or not having received the vaccine with how many doses
2. risk analysis
2.1 Vaccine toxicity risks
Because there has not been a randomized, cohort study on the toxicity of vaccines. Therefore, we must rely on the Vaccine Effects Reporting System (VAERS) that is reported to the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC), which is an overview of all vaccines combined as follows:
2.1.1.. The likelihood of death from vaccines was reported from 14 Dec. 21 to 4 Apr. 65, totaling 13,853 people (0.0025%).
2.1.2.. Myocardial infarction and pericarditis have been reported in 2,332 people under the age of 30 as reported to the CDC as of March 31, 65. Of these, the CDC concludes from There were 1,407 actual vaccine-derived follow-ups.
2.1.3.. Report of thrombosis There are 64 cases of thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS), most of them caused by the Johnson vaccine. There was caused by the mRNA vaccine in 4 people.
2.1.4 . The incidence of muscle weakness and paralysis caused by multiple sclerosis (GBS) was reported in 312 cases, mostly in the elderly. And most of them are caused by the Johnson vaccine. Some are caused by mRNA vaccines.
All in all, let’s not forget that the US has almost five times the population of Thailand.
2.2 Analyze the risk of Omicron infection after receiving two doses of vaccine.
Since most Thai people (72.46%) have had two doses of vaccine, the remaining 27.54% are refusing to inject their own not because the state does not provide vaccinations. I will therefore analyze the Omicron exposure risk for most people who have completed two doses of vaccine only. First of all, let’s see how much Thai people are addicted to Omicron thus far. Since the beginning of the Omicron era, there has never been a randomized research examining sepsis in the community. A community examination was conducted by the Rural Medical Association in August. 64, the pre-Omicron era, tested 141,516 people, found 15,588 or 11.01%, while the official number of infections nationwide at that time was 1,009,710, or 1.5% was the infection data. Community data is approximately 7.3 times higher than official infection data. Today, we have official data on cumulative infections of 3,905,872 people. 64 Come predict today will get information about the real infected people in the community today that there are about 28.5 million people, but if taking the cost of infection (Reproduction number – RO) of Omicron, which is 3.19 times greater than Delta (if based on research from Denmark) come to mind as well. I’m sharing this lengthy number just to say that it’s very likely that while we’re sitting here terrified of infection, we might be infected without even realizing it.
Well, let’s say we’re still pure and not infected. If you get infected after getting at least two of these vaccines What is the risk of it? If we look at the statistics of the Thai nation As of today, there are 3,905,872 infected patients, 26,188 deaths, with a mortality rate of 0.67%. But we still can’t tell how many of the more than twenty thousand people who died from covids. How many deaths from co-morbidities? In the case of death from COVID, it is still not possible to differentiate from the number of deaths from Delta. How many deaths from omicron? Simply put, the current national data cannot be used to predict the serious morbidity or mortality rate of future Omicron infections.
The best way to do this is to rely on data from countries that have been infected with Omicron and have finished or near the end. The country with the best and most open information is England. And British people have similar vaccination profiles as Thai people. is that the whole country has received two doses of vaccination 74.09%. The research data comparing the mortality rate of the British Bureau of Statistics is as follows.
The conclusion from this table is that of the 814,011 Omicron COVID-19 cases studied, 128 actually died of COVID-19, or a mortality rate of 0.015%. as much as in the world as I have in my hand right now. If anyone has more reliable and better information, please tell me.
The point is that this 0.015% risk is a very low mortality risk. Ten times lower than influenza (mortality rate 0.13-0.17%), and some diseases that are common in Thai people, such as acute myocardial infarction that I answer every day, this has a mortality rate of up to 30%. Omicron covids 2000 times. When looking at the death rate numbers, we mistakenly underestimated the size of Omicron like watching a different movie. Do you see?
Conclusion
when weighingRisks and benefits of vaccination against four needles of COVID-19 with the release of omyc infectionNow, in terms of benefitsThere is no evidence that the quadruple vaccine would be any more useful than allowing Omicron infection. butThere is some evidence that natural infection is more beneficial in preventing severe disease than vaccination. while in terms of the risk Both options areFourth vaccination and the release of Omicron infection are equally at very low risk. I therefore recommend that for general people who are not special risk groups with low immunity,It is better to let omicron infection than three-dose vaccination. I myself practice this way.You’ve got two vaccines and that’s enough. no more
As for those who are at extra risk, I recommend that you choose which one you like and which one you like. because there are no specific research results for this group The 0.015% UK mortality data includes all people of all ages, including those at special risk.
Dr. San Jaiyodsilp, MD.
thank you Dr. San Jaiyodsilp, MD.
