The boom in the DRAM industry returned to an upward cycle in the first quarter of this year. Spot prices soared and contract prices also soared. However, due to the long-term and short-term effects, customers’ inventory levels rose and their willingness to stock up decreased, resulting in a reversal of DRAM contract prices in the fourth quarter. However, the industry is optimistic that this is only a demand correction, not a decline in the industry’s prosperity, and prices are expected to return to rising trends as soon as the second quarter of next year.
Since the third quarter, the problem of supply chain length and short material has gradually surfaced, and has affected the assembly of terminal products. Some manufacturers have begun to reduce their purchases of relatively long material memory, which has dragged down the momentum of memory demand. When the DRAM inventory in the hands of end-product customers exceeds the safe level, the willingness to stock up decreases. TrendForce expects that the average DRAM contract price in the fourth quarter will fall.
Among them, terminal manufacturers that have slowed down in pulling goods have the most obvious attitude toward pen power plants. TrendForce predicts that PC DRAM prices will fall by 5-10% in the fourth quarter, and some prices do not rule out a quarterly decline of more than 10%. Appeared and became the application with the heaviest decline.
Although the contract price in the fourth quarter will reverse and fall, the industry believes that due to the high expectations of the previous market, the demand is only corrected to return to normal in the near future. It is not that market conditions are noisy. The industry is also optimistic. The price in the second quarter of next year It is expected to return to the rally.
Despite the interference of long and short material factors, the memory manufacturer Winbond (2344-TW) believes that memory is neither a long foot nor a short foot. It is in the middle of a relatively low shortage. It is expected to be long and medium in the fourth quarter. Material inventory may be slightly depleted, and the impact of long and short materials has a chance to be alleviated in the next quarter.
Memory module manufacturer ADATA (3260-TW) is optimistic. The long-term long-term trend of memory remains unchanged. As the growth rate of demand for various applications is still greater than the growth rate of upstream supply, it is expected that DRAM prices will stand again in the second quarter of next year. On the growth curve.
The module manufacturer Team Group (4967-TW) also said that the major challenge at this stage is not the lack of orders, but the prolonged delivery delay. It is expected that the DRAM contract prices in the fourth and first quarters may be revised, and the second quarter is expected to continue. Start the rally.