HoonSmart.com>> “TMBAM Eastspring” shows Chinese stocks down more than 30%, worried about government regulation. Earnings for listed companies are still strong, expecting a year 65 growth above stock markets around the world. Looking at the low base index, the opportunity to outperform, the cadence accumulating Fund-flow signals flow into the Chinese stock market. “Academics” pointed out that China’s organization this year is a good time before the election of a new leader in 65 with measures to stimulate the economy bright.
Mr. Badin Putthain, Director of Investment Strategy Division TMB Asset Management Company (TMBAM Eastspring) spoke at the seminar. How to adjust the Chinese stock portfolio when “Dragon” enters the new game that Currently, China’s stock market has declined more than 30%, with limited downside risks. The index went deep close to 2018 when the trade dispute between the United States and China occurred. The stock index was down 33%, and in 2015 it was down 35 percent after cutting the yuan. Therefore, it is viewed as a time to gradually invest. Despite some government policy risks
In addition, there have begun to see signs of capital inflows into Chinese and Hong Kong stocks continuously through ETFs. In the past month, net inflows in Chinese stocks are 1.8%, Hong Kong 1.9%, more than US stocks, 1.1% inflows and developed stocks at 1.2. % while in the past three months, money flows into the Chinese stock market 6.9%, Hong Kong 9% compared to the United States. Flow and developed stock markets inflow 2.9%, reflecting the views of investors around the world are starting to look more optimistic about investing in China. including foreign brokers like Nomura UBS starts recommending China stocks
“China’s stocks that adjusted downward were due to concerns over the short-term outlook from government policies. But in terms of earnings, it continues to grow. In 2022, MSCI China, CSI300, Star50 are expected to show attractive double-digit earnings growth of 16%, 16% and 44% compared to developed markets. S&P500 is up 8% MSCI World is growing. 7%, so if you still believe that the price will follow the profit It is a chance that Chinese stocks next year may outperform,” said Mr. Badin.
In addition, the next day may see the Fed announce a QE limit cut and if there are no significant outflows. It may be a time to invest gradually accumulate Chinese stock funds, including SSF-RMF funds, long-term investments, which are interesting during this period.
Mr. Bodin said that at present, investments are still volatile in many industries due to government regulatory measures. causing the future to have an industry that can recover But may not boom or some industries may meet the economy in the future with a positive outlook on healthcare, pharmaceuticals, auto and industrial sectors Consumer, Technology, Energy commodity real estate and finance Still looking attractive to invest at Neutral level.
Dr. Arm Tangnirandorn, Deputy Dean of the Faculty of Law and director of the Center for Chinese Studies Chulalongkorn University said that the coming of the Chinese authorities this year. regarded as the right moment Which China itself has been signaling since March. Despite the World Bank’s forecast for China’s GDP to grow by 8%, China is targeting 6% to leave room for reforms despite short-term pain. but good results in the long run and in November 2022 There will be a general meeting of the Communist Party in 5 years to elect a new leader. Si Zhen is expected to stay on But coming to organize this time has dimensions of politics, control, different opinions before the election. Next year, it will make the economy better by stimulating the economy.
for supervising the real estate sector It reflects the shift in China’s economic model, from 8-10% growth from investment in construction, building airports, roads and real estate into the big picture of China’s investment. Today, China is trying to change its growth model from consumption to create a new middle class of 400 million people because if house prices are high, there will be no money to buy things. In addition, China wants to become a technology society 5.0 new technologies. in the efficient economy and change the model from real estate speculative economy to grow with more quality Because real estate growth is difficult to sustain.
Dr Arm said Chinese analysts recommend avoiding the real estate sector. which is different from tech By looking at real estate will seep for a long time The real estate sector will no longer be the main engine driving China’s economic growth. But China’s risk lies in how quickly the new propulsion machinery will replace it, including consumption, technology, clean energy.
“The Chinese government has assured that the bubble will not burst. But looking at the price will not continue to rise stop speculation Press the borrowing of real estate companies to affect investment. which makes the real estate image seep for a long time But there will be no economic crisis. What will result is that a large amount of investment from retail investors will flow to other sectors from the original real estate will enter the Chinese stock market more. At the same time, the general economic picture sees more money flowing into hard tech, including semiconductors. battery industry which is very strong in China,” said Dr. Arm.
For the energy crisis, viewed as a short-term factor caused by As the world recovers from the coronavirus, global demand for energy has increased, including in China, with winter increasing energy demand and China having to import energy. While the policy to reduce dependence on coal has caused the coal price to rise, affecting the chain. But what is interesting, the Chinese government is helping to solve the short-term problem. full use of coal while in the long run, double clean energy As for the electric vehicle (EV) industry, China currently has 800,000 electric vehicle charging stations, more than the United States. Battery technology, power storage, power transmission lines In China, there has been a lot of attention from government and investment.
While in China’s five-year plan, there are still issues of supply chain stability. National Semiconductor Industry Agenda Increased dependence on large market economies in China Make money, income, profits of the company to invest more in R&D and large market dominance. positive effect on clean energy
Dr Arm said that the main issue in 2022, China will hold the Winter Olympics in March and the Communist Party General Assembly in November. It is expected that at the beginning of the year China will not open the country immediately in the beginning of next year. But there may be some relaxation and should be able to open after March. which China still attaches importance to security as the number one priority There will be elections next year, and currently, general analysts see that Xi Zhenping has a high chance of being the lead. and policies made to pave the way for a third phase In addition, in the year of the Kimmunist Party in five years, China will try to stimulate the economy or make the economy positive. So the arrangement took place this year and from now until the end of the year there should be no measures. But will keep the ammunition for use next year, positively affecting the economy before the meeting.
